旺季已到!全国水泥均价将触底反弹!

2020-04-22 09:10:49

中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院数据分析师表示,这预示着在未来两周内,水泥价格将大概率触底反弹,全面开启上半年旺季序幕。

当前,受疫情影响,我国及全球经济都遭受冲击。然而,在面临如今疫情危机的同时更要用超越的视角洞悉时代机遇。

于水泥行业而言,虽一季度影响颇大,但随着基建复工的大力推进,全国行情已开始好转。尤其是近期,随着各地复工进程加快,全国水泥市场将全面迎来春天。

据中国水泥网水泥大数据监测显示,近期水泥价格指数环比跌幅连续收窄,走势已探底趋稳,且水泥需求回升明显。中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院数据分析师表示,这预示着在未来两周内,水泥价格将大概率触底反弹,全面开启上半年旺季序幕。


未来的水泥需求由投资决定,而当下的投资节奏与变化则可以通过水泥价格来反映。水泥价格的高低、水泥供需关系的变化会影响投资项目的推进,从而影响整体经济。合理而稳定的水泥价格,能保证基础设施建设项目的顺利推进。

2020年作为“十三五”规划的收官之年,为推动经济尽快恢复,各个地方政府密集公布了2020年重大项目投资计划。据中国水泥网不完全统计发现,有25个省区市公布了未来的投资规划,2.2万个项目总投资额达49.6万亿元,其中2020年度计划投资总规模7.6万亿元。基建的投资将有利带动水泥行业的健康发展。

水泥价格指数CEMPI对工业投资乃至货币政策有重要意义,可领先于PPI一个月。

工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)是反映一定时期内全部工业产品出厂价格总水平的变动趋势和变动幅度的相对数。

PPI同比上涨过快、同比数值过高,将会影响消费端,从而造成通胀压力,与水泥有关的就是会影响水泥需求,造成项目停滞。水泥是建筑工程的刚性需求,过去也曾出现因为原材料价格上涨而造成项目投资超出预算从而暂停或延后。

PPI同比下滑,尤其持续为负时,工业企业的盈利水平会受到限制,连续为负往往意味着工业企业亏损面扩大,企业的投资积极性就会受到打压,PPI同比下降或者为负时,降准或降息的货币政策就会发生(《任泽平:PPI才是中国货币政策最重要的锚》)。

水泥价格指数(CEMPI)是反映全国水泥市场价格水平以及波动情况的经济指标,主要是为了综合反映全国水泥市场的总体行情走势。然而,通过与工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)同比变化对比,可以看出,两者大部分时间竟惊人的一致。

PPI一般于次月15日发布,而水泥价格指数CEMPI则每天发布,月同比在月底即可知晓。在实际应用中,上半月的CEMPI同比走势与全月的CEMPI同比走势一致。因而,通过水泥价格指数,可提前一个月为PPI的变化动向提供参考。

水泥是基础的大宗原材料,与宏观经济紧密关联,任何一个行业门类的投资活动都有水泥的身影。衣食住行,厂房与水利、交通与住房,都需要水泥。水泥的生产消费、贸易流通、价格起伏既创造着国民经济财富,也指引着经济发展态势。一花一世界,读懂水泥,亦能深窥宏观经济、洞悉市场走势。

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Correlation

A Picture to Understand the Semi-annual Report of Shangfeng Cement in 2024

2024-08-28 22:03:09

In his speech, Gui Tongsheng emphasized that the company must set up correct expectations, accurately position itself, maintain confidence and determination, coordinate short-term and long-term, scale and quality, development and safety, reform and stability, firmly shoulder the political responsibility of restorative growth, and continue to press forward towards the annual target task with solid work.

2024-08-09 09:57:02

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Northeast region shut down the kiln again for 15 days in August, which played a supporting role in cement prices.

2024-07-26 17:06:09

Yang Dan led a team to visit Anhui Conch Group to explore deepening strategic cooperation, focusing on smart factories, new energy, new materials and digital technology, and jointly promote the healthy and high-quality development of the cement industry.

2024-07-24 23:11:27

Jiangsu Jinfeng Group is also a large local enterprise in Jiangsu, the "leader" of the cement industry in Jiangsu, and the largest single cement production base in the country. After more than 40 years of development, the group has changed from an unknown small cement plant to 70.

2024-06-11 16:12:09

As the "special forces" of the cement industry, the two sides have a high degree of business fit and broad cooperation space. It is hoped that the two sides will focus on strengthening, optimizing and expanding the special cement business, further strengthen communication and docking, and promote complementary advantages and pragmatic cooperation.

2024-06-06 10:20:11

Let's look back on those historical moments that have gathered wisdom and stirred up thinking!

2024-05-09 10:19:56

In the next step, enterprises at all levels of China National Building Material Co., Ltd. will continue to implement Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought, uphold the enterprise mission of "materials create a better world" of China National Building Material Co., Ltd., further restore green, expand green and increase green, actively carry out the construction of green factories and ecological factories, build garden factories and beautiful factories, and promote the harmonious coexistence of enterprises and nature, man and nature.

2024-05-06 09:24:59

Yang Dan thanked South Kazakhstan National University for its warm reception, and introduced the company's investment and development in Kazakhstan, as well as the development orientation and ideas of the cement industry.

2024-04-24 09:28:27

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, 25 major manufacturers in Nanjing notice to raise the price of bulk cement 20 yuan/ton, the implementation remains to be observed. The market demand in other regions is general, and the cement market is stable and weak.

2024-03-30 13:06:23

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the market in Northeast China has started initially, and the demand for cement has recovered poorly. The price of cement in Heilongjiang is stable for the time being, but the quotation of leading enterprises is different. There are few construction sites in Jilin area, and the price of cement is low. In Liaoning, the demand for cement in central Liaoning is insufficient and the price is running at a low level.

2024-03-30 12:55:26

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the market demand in Chengdu, Sichuan Province has recovered recently, and some leading enterprises in Chengdu and its surrounding markets have raised the price of bulk cement by 30 yuan/ton in the week, and the actual implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Chongqing and Yunnan are about 20-30 yuan/ton lower.

2024-03-30 00:57:03

She emphasized that the price war in the sand and gravel industry would be carried out in the future, and even there would be a dangerous situation of "1 yuan decides life and death".

2024-03-29 18:34:52

He believes that in 2024, the policy side will change from increasing production and guaranteeing supply to stabilizing production and guaranteeing supply, and the expansion of coal production capacity will be narrowed, and 20 million tons of production capacity are expected to be withdrawn, including 8 million tons of thermal coal and 12 million tons of coking coal.

2024-03-29 18:32:45

He pointed out that the cement industry has the basic conditions to implement the allocation of carbon quotas based on the industry benchmark method, and can adopt the industry benchmark method of historical output/actual output.

2024-03-29 18:27:01

He said that the two sessions set the situation of the real estate industry, defused real estate risks, reduced restrictive measures, increased the supply of affordable housing construction, and promoted new urbanization.

2024-03-29 18:23:38

He said that supply chain management is a new thing in China, especially in the construction industry, and there are some problems at all levels, such as insufficient understanding, institutional constraints, multi-level management, long chain and low decision-making efficiency.

2024-03-29 18:17:41

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

He said that there are many challenges in the development of the cement industry, such as limited limestone resources and other raw materials, and global environmental protection requirements for carbon emissions in the cement industry.

2024-03-29 17:57:57

He proposed that the cement industry should first establish and then break, first stabilize and then advance, and must realize that there is no winner in low-price competition, enterprises should look at the world; use differentiated competition, technological innovation and cooperation to replace low-price competition; rigid capacity reduction should be put on the agenda as soon as possible.

2024-03-29 17:13:52

According to the cement market data center, In the early stage, the leading enterprises in Guanzhong area of Shaanxi had notified to raise the cement price by 30 yuan/ton. Recently, the market demand has declined, coupled with the impact of price reduction in the surrounding market, the quotation of enterprises in Guanzhong area has dropped by about 20 yuan/ton in the week.

2024-03-29 17:12:50

She said that the revised content of GB175-2023 General Portland Cement has a certain impact on cement enterprises.

2024-03-29 16:57:48

He said that high-end technologies such as the application of intelligent and digital technologies have promoted the productivity innovation and the progress of production relations in the new era and new pattern of the cement industry.

2024-03-29 16:10:02

Li Huaihe said that the overall management of the construction industry is extensive and the level of information technology is low, so there is an urgent need for digital transformation to improve the efficiency and management level of the industry.

2024-03-29 15:07:06

Futures market can help cement enterprises better cope with market risks and promote better and more stable development of cement industry with high quality.

2024-03-29 14:01:49

He stressed that digital transformation and upgrading is essential to enhance the competitiveness of cement enterprises.

2024-03-29 12:15:59

Faced with difficulties and challenges, Xiao Jiaxiang proposed that the cement industry should maintain rationality and resilience, strengthen confidence, overcome difficulties and promote high-quality development of the industry.

2024-03-29 12:00:33

Zhang Liqun predicts that China's economic growth will continue to pick up in 2024, with an economic growth rate of no less than 5%.

2024-03-29 11:28:51

Shao Jun believes that the industry should analyze its internal and external causes, take the initiative to solve the problems of overcapacity, the elimination of the elimination, the merger of the merger, the volume of the volume, the development of the development.

2024-03-29 11:12:17

Lu Yanchun said that overcapacity and shrinking demand are the main contradictions in the current development of the cement industry.

2024-03-29 10:27:12

The introduction of the new version of GB 175-2023 General Portland Cement Standard will further improve the quality of cement products, play a vital role in promoting the high-quality development of the cement industry, and is an important achievement.

2024-03-28 19:34:43

At the meeting, Ba Taibin, senior consultant of China Cement Network and professor-level senior engineer of Zhengzhou Tonghui Design Institute, made a keynote report on "Research and Application of Deep Denitrification Technology at the Source of Cement Plant".

2024-03-28 19:27:49

At the meeting, Tao Congxi, the chief expert and professor-level senior engineer of China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings Co., Ltd., made a keynote report on "3C Carbon Neutralization Theory and Practice Exploration in Cement Industry".

2024-03-28 19:26:37

Cement enterprises need to take green transformation, technological innovation, intelligent transformation and other means to complement each other and support each other as an overall strategy to jointly promote technological progress in the industry and meet the new era of green intelligence in the cement industry.

2024-03-28 19:16:46

On the morning of March 28, the 13th China Cement Industry Summit hosted by China Cement Network was successfully held. Associate Professor, Southwest University of Science and Technology Qi Yanyong brought a wonderful report to the summit on the theme of "Operation Method of Firing System under the Background of Carbon Emission Reduction".

2024-03-28 19:00:38

Two-pronged approach, two-wheel drive, based on the present, look forward to the future.

2024-03-28 18:58:59

Pan Zhonghong, deputy general manager of Anhui Conch Cement Co., Ltd., said that the current situation of the industry is very anxious and we do not want to see it. The serious overcapacity and the sharp decline in demand have further intensified the contradictions in the industry.

2024-03-28 18:49:53

On the morning of March 28, the 13th China Cement Industry Summit hosted by China Cement Network was successfully held. Gao Yuzong, senior consultant of China Cement Network, brought a brilliant report on the theme of "Biomass Alternative Fuel Technology Program" to the Summit.

2024-03-28 18:49:16

On March 28, the 13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony hosted by China Cement Network was held grandly.

2024-03-28 18:30:58

The realization of economic benefits by enterprises is the basis for the industry to achieve high-quality development.

2024-03-28 18:06:16

Zhang Jian, general manager of marketing department of Red Lion Holding Group Co., Ltd., said that at present, it is an indisputable fact that the cement industry has excess capacity and declining demand.

2024-03-28 18:04:10

Li Wei, vice president of China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings Limited, said at the meeting that the industry situation this year will be more severe than last year. In terms of infrastructure construction, due to debt factors, the progress of infrastructure projects has slowed down significantly, which was not expected by the industry last year. In terms of real estate, the effect of the current stimulus policy is not obvious, and the confidence of the real estate industry is still insufficient.

2024-03-28 17:34:18

Now the era of rapid development of the cement industry is over.

2024-03-28 17:22:26

Guo Shiqing, marketing director of Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd., said that the situation in the cement industry is grim and needs to make higher response measures to change.

2024-03-28 17:10:42

He Kunhuang, director and general manager of Guangdong Tapai Group Co., Ltd., said that the industry situation this year may be more difficult than last year. On the one hand, there is no sign of a rebound in real estate; on the other hand, affected by debt, some government infrastructure investment has been affected. In the long run, the demand for cement is likely to decrease in the next decade.

2024-03-28 16:47:32

Looking ahead to 2024, the market challenges will be more severe.

2024-03-28 16:32:35

At present, cement enterprises have felt the deep chill of the industry, and the prospect of the cement industry is not optimistic. In this industry situation, cement enterprises should go on firmly.

2024-03-28 16:20:57

In order to survive and develop in the fierce market competition, cement enterprises must abandon the illusion of relying on others to "give" opportunities, and win the recognition and respect of the market through self-innovation and promotion.