旺季已到!全国水泥均价将触底反弹!

2020-04-22 09:10:49

中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院数据分析师表示,这预示着在未来两周内,水泥价格将大概率触底反弹,全面开启上半年旺季序幕。

当前,受疫情影响,我国及全球经济都遭受冲击。然而,在面临如今疫情危机的同时更要用超越的视角洞悉时代机遇。

于水泥行业而言,虽一季度影响颇大,但随着基建复工的大力推进,全国行情已开始好转。尤其是近期,随着各地复工进程加快,全国水泥市场将全面迎来春天。

据中国水泥网水泥大数据监测显示,近期水泥价格指数环比跌幅连续收窄,走势已探底趋稳,且水泥需求回升明显。中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院数据分析师表示,这预示着在未来两周内,水泥价格将大概率触底反弹,全面开启上半年旺季序幕。


未来的水泥需求由投资决定,而当下的投资节奏与变化则可以通过水泥价格来反映。水泥价格的高低、水泥供需关系的变化会影响投资项目的推进,从而影响整体经济。合理而稳定的水泥价格,能保证基础设施建设项目的顺利推进。

2020年作为“十三五”规划的收官之年,为推动经济尽快恢复,各个地方政府密集公布了2020年重大项目投资计划。据中国水泥网不完全统计发现,有25个省区市公布了未来的投资规划,2.2万个项目总投资额达49.6万亿元,其中2020年度计划投资总规模7.6万亿元。基建的投资将有利带动水泥行业的健康发展。

水泥价格指数CEMPI对工业投资乃至货币政策有重要意义,可领先于PPI一个月。

工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)是反映一定时期内全部工业产品出厂价格总水平的变动趋势和变动幅度的相对数。

PPI同比上涨过快、同比数值过高,将会影响消费端,从而造成通胀压力,与水泥有关的就是会影响水泥需求,造成项目停滞。水泥是建筑工程的刚性需求,过去也曾出现因为原材料价格上涨而造成项目投资超出预算从而暂停或延后。

PPI同比下滑,尤其持续为负时,工业企业的盈利水平会受到限制,连续为负往往意味着工业企业亏损面扩大,企业的投资积极性就会受到打压,PPI同比下降或者为负时,降准或降息的货币政策就会发生(《任泽平:PPI才是中国货币政策最重要的锚》)。

水泥价格指数(CEMPI)是反映全国水泥市场价格水平以及波动情况的经济指标,主要是为了综合反映全国水泥市场的总体行情走势。然而,通过与工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)同比变化对比,可以看出,两者大部分时间竟惊人的一致。

PPI一般于次月15日发布,而水泥价格指数CEMPI则每天发布,月同比在月底即可知晓。在实际应用中,上半月的CEMPI同比走势与全月的CEMPI同比走势一致。因而,通过水泥价格指数,可提前一个月为PPI的变化动向提供参考。

水泥是基础的大宗原材料,与宏观经济紧密关联,任何一个行业门类的投资活动都有水泥的身影。衣食住行,厂房与水利、交通与住房,都需要水泥。水泥的生产消费、贸易流通、价格起伏既创造着国民经济财富,也指引着经济发展态势。一花一世界,读懂水泥,亦能深窥宏观经济、洞悉市场走势。

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Correlation

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