[原创]全球水泥行业供需格局及未来需求预测

2015-09-15 10:58:22

2014年,全球经济在缓慢中复苏,新兴市场经济乏力,全球水泥需求产销增长动力不足。中国水泥市场占全球的比重已达59%,是未来五年全球水泥需求增长中变数最大的国家,而印度、印尼、越南等产销大国仍有强劲的增长预期。

一、全球经济缓慢复苏

  2014年,新兴市场国家自08年金融危机以来经济增长依然乏力,发达经济体经济处于与缓慢复苏阶段,世界经济在曲折中前行,全年经济增速在3.39%,保持缓慢增长。

图1:2001~2014年全球经济增速情况

数据来源:国际货币基金组织

  根据2015年7月国际货币基金组织发布的《世界经济展望与最新预测》,2015年全球经济将增长3.3%,略低于2014年,发达经济体的经济增长逐步好转,而新兴市场和发展中经济体的增长继续放缓。2016年,全球经济增长预计提高至3.8%。

  发达经济体普遍从油价下跌中受益,其中美国将发挥最重要的作用,而受油价下降冲击,俄罗斯、委内瑞拉等国增长率将大幅下降,此外中国增速放缓,经济结构正处于调整之中,预计2015年新兴市场经济增长率继续保持下行通道。

  从中期来看,2016年之后全球经济增长率将有小幅升高,新兴市场和发展中经济体增长进一步好转,而发达国家经济体将于2017年之后进一步放缓,美国等国受人口老龄化和全要素生产率增长下降,长期的增长预期不乐观。

二、全球水泥市场概况

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Correlation

At the meeting, Yan Haochun brought the theme report "Dream of Blue Sky: Exploring the Green Footprint of Cement Industry in the Context of Carbon Market". She pointed out that the cement industry faced the risk of rising costs in the context of the carbon market.

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