On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly. At the meeting, Xiao Jiaxiang, Executive Chairman of China Cement Association, made a brilliant report on the theme of "Firm Confidence to Overcome Difficulties and Strive to Promote High-quality Development of Cement Industry".
< IMG SRC = "https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/935nsw7fwv1712476929899. Xiao Jiaxiang stated that before 2001, the cement industry enjoyed stable and sustained development;"; From 2001 to 2013, with the rapid development of China's economy, the demand for cement continued to soar and entered a period of rapid development; from 2014 to 2021, it entered a period of high platform; after 2022, the demand for cement remained high overall, but the downward trend was obvious, and it entered a period of downward demand. According to the analysis of
https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/dbki9sbzqbs1712476951653.
Xiao Jiaxiang, The real profit peak of the cement industry (2018 ~ 2021) is not the period of the highest demand, and the demand for cement is still at a high level in the two industry low tide periods of 2014 ~ 2016 and 2022 ~ 2023. Therefore, the benefit of the industry still depends on the behavior of the enterprise and the ecology of the industry.
Capacity replacement policy is good at the beginning, hoping to promote industrial structural adjustment and technological progress of cement industry through capacity replacement, and it has indeed played a certain role, but it also has great side effects-activating zombie capacity, and because of unscientific capacity approval standards, low capacity replacement ratio, lax supervision and implementation, etc. The release of a large number of new production capacity, especially cross-provincial replacement, has directly led to a serious overcapacity of cement production in Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan and Guangxi. The policy of
peak staggering production has played a decisive role in resolving overcapacity and improving industry efficiency. However, due to the increase in new capacity and other reasons, the utility is now diminishing. Therefore, it needs further improvement, but it must be adhered to.
From the perspective of enterprises, the behavior of enterprises, especially large enterprises, determines whether the industry can develop healthily, whether it can firmly lead the structural reform of the supply side, actively integrate the market through joint reorganization, improve the concentration of the industry, actively shut down backward production capacity, actively take the ecological construction of the industry and lead the industry. It directly determines the benefits of the industry. Xiao Jiaxiang said that the decline in market demand can not be controlled, but the high-quality development of the industry still depends on policy guidance and industry ecology.
From the perspective of regional development trend, the trend of serious differentiation is still continuing.
< IMG SRC = "https://img7.ccement.com/richtext/img/scszf2q5nzf1712477011294. that from 2008 to now, more than 50% of enterprises in Zhejiang have withdrawn from the market." Its production capacity has gone to nearly 30 million tons. This achievement, on the one hand, is that the government has played a role, and Zhejiang is the first region to implement the optimization and upgrading of the seven traditional industries; on the other hand, enterprises have played a major role, and large enterprises such as Conch, China Building Materials and Red Lion have played a very good leading role, jointly promoting the optimization and upgrading of the industry.
Another representative region is the northwest, especially Xinjiang. In recent years, Xinjiang's capacity utilization rate is about 40%, and its capacity is seriously excessive, but in recent years, its benefits are outstanding in the whole country, which is not only supported and guided by the government, but also by enterprises, and the industry has done a good job of self-discipline.
There are also some representative regions, such as South China. The market is very good, but it is ruined. Where is it ruined? Through the replacement of production capacity, the government has developed the cement industry on a large scale in Guangxi, resulting in a serious surplus of cement production capacity. What are the reasons for the sharp decline in demand and the aggravation of overcapacity in
Yunnan and Guizhou?
2024 Cement Industry Situation-Opportunities and Challenges Coexist
Xiao Jiaxiang said that the judgment of the industry situation must be rational, neither blindly optimistic nor blindly pessimistic.
Xiao Jiaxiang said that < a href = "https://price.ccement.com/brandnewslist-1-1000068." was under great pressure from external competition, and the tasks of internal transformation and upgrading and management integration were heavy. In retrospect, it was even more difficult at that time than it is now.
Xiao Jiaxiang pointed out that the current industry situation may not be difficult compared with 2014 to 2015. At that time, a large number of new production capacity was put into operation, cooperation among large enterprises, and the level of consensus in the industry was not as high as it is now. Therefore, we should look at the situation rationally at all times, neither blindly optimistic nor blindly pessimistic, and we must seek truth from facts.
Generally speaking, China's macro-fundamentals are still good, and the process of Chinese-style modernization will certainly form an effective support for cement demand. The decline in cement demand is inevitable, but China's cement demand will probably stabilize at more than 1.5 billion tons before 2030, that is to say, there is still 40-50% of the global demand. With such a high demand, do you still blame the demand? The challenges faced by the cement industry in
2024 are enormous, which are mainly manifested in the following aspects: further decline in demand, further aggravation of overcapacity, fluctuation of high cost, lack of market confidence, deterioration of industry ecology, intensification of market competition, low start at the beginning of the year, intensification of regional and enterprise differentiation, serious losses in some regions, and great pressure on some enterprises to survive. The pressure of steady growth of benefits is great.
Xiao Jiaxiang suggested that the industry should: first, strengthen confidence, which comes from large enterprises and is passed from large enterprises to the whole industry; second, overcome difficulties and fight the three major battles of steady growth, capacity reduction and transformation and upgrading.
Specifically:
(1) Strengthen the organization and coordination of associations and the leadership of large enterprises, adhere to and optimize the policy of peak staggering production, strengthen the ecological construction of the industry, and make every effort to achieve steady growth.
The 1、 adheres to and improves peak-shifting production, reduces production and controls inventory.
The 2、 will comprehensively strengthen the ecological construction of the industry (note: correctly handle the four relationships between share and price, short-term and long-term, local and overall, and enterprise and industry), strengthen the self-discipline of the industry, oppose unfair competition, and stabilize the market and price.
3、 comprehensively deepen the market-oriented reform of enterprises, practice hard internal skills, lose weight and keep fit, reduce costs and increase efficiency.
The 4、 should play a leading role in large enterprises and the organization and coordination role of trade associations. Give full play to the positive propaganda, guidance and supervision role of the media
5、, and create a healthy atmosphere of public opinion.
(2) Adhere to the two-way efforts of policy and market, resolutely control new growth, eliminate backwardness, improve industry concentration, and deepen the structural reform of industry supply side. We should
improve the policy of capacity replacement with 1、, double control of energy consumption and pollutant discharge, and strictly prevent technological transformation, replacement and renewal.
The 2、 summarizes, learns from and draws lessons from the excellent experience at home and abroad, and formulates and implements supporting policies and measures to deepen the structural reform of the supply side of the industry and promote the high-quality development of the industry (to reduce production capacity, improve industry concentration, transformation and upgrading).
3、 will intensify market-oriented efforts to eliminate backward production capacity and inefficient assets, joint restructuring and market integration, accelerate capacity removal and improve industry concentration.
(Three) intensify technological innovation and accelerate transformation and upgrading.
1、 speeds up green, low-carbon and digital transformation. Optimization and upgrading of
2、: We will accelerate the optimization of the enterprise's market layout, industrial chain, product structure, asset-liability structure, and organizational structure; we will accelerate the upgrading of high-end, energy saving, emission reduction, and intellectualization, and improve the sustainable development capability of the enterprise.
(Four) strengthen international cooperation and develop international markets.
Xiao Jiaxiang said that in the face of difficulties and challenges, we must maintain rationality and resilience, firm confidence, overcome difficulties and promote high-quality development of the industry.
