[原创]马来西亚:未来水泥行业前景不明朗

2015-06-03 14:50:10

马来西亚水泥市场2015年预计是健康运行的,但是如果企业持续面临激烈的价格竞争、产能过剩、煤炭价格上涨和其他税收方面的风险,它们能否维持长期的利润增长值得商榷。

  水泥行业主要依赖于建筑业。因而当马来西亚政府在2015年第二季度公布“第十一个马来西亚计划”(该计划包含大型重点项目,如地铁2号线,轻轨3号线,独立遗产大厦和双溪伯西乌鲁-巴生高架快速路)后,水泥行业将收益。

  然而,现在担心的是弱势的马币和低石油价格,以及它们对政府发展费用支出的影响。此外,由于抵押贷款紧缩的财政政策和对建筑材料如水泥征收6%的产品和服务税,房地产市场预计保持温和发展。

  虽然水泥行业是一个强周期行业,然而一位业内人士表示,水泥行业参与者之间是一场销量的较量。

  “如果没有销量,你无法进入行业,并且随后你无法轻易脱身”。

  他表示,“‘第十一个马来西亚计划’”持续的基础设施投资将给建筑业一个良好的前景,然而问题是这些项目落实下来的时间有多长。”。同时他补充,行业的其他风险包含能源(尤其煤炭和电力)价格上涨以及企业间激烈的竞争。

  考虑到这个,他进一步认为行业的前景将有弹性。

  石油价格的下滑可能是水泥行业的一个阻尼器,资本支出可能会减少。

  他指出,政府收入下滑可能通过取消补贴来抵消一部分。随着建筑材料(如钢铁)价格的下降以及产能过剩压力下水泥企业积极稳价,建筑企业在商品及服务税前已经锁定了较低的建材成本。

  去年第二季度,多数国内排名前列的水泥企业提高了他们的价格,幅度在7%~9%,由Holcim (M) Sdn Bhd带头,Lafarge Malaysia Bhd、Tasek Corp Bhd和Hume Cement Sdn Bhd紧随其后。回顾行业可以看到,很多企业对他们的价格和扩张计划相当保守。

  水泥与混凝土协会会长Grace Okuda表示,今年由于政府持续的基建项目,水泥行业总体上还是乐观的。“我们的分析显示,行业拥有充足的产能来满足额外的水泥需求”。

  “然而,我们对2016及之后的预期不确定,但是如果项目按照计划执行,水泥的需求将继续保持增长”,Okuda表示。不过他不愿就定价和商品服务税对行业的整体影响发表评论。

  对于去年二季度水泥企业在充满挑战和竞争的背景下提高价格,很多企业还增加了它们的产能,业内人士表示,这将导致供大于求的局面。

  去年8月9日《StarBizWeek》杂志的报告显示,拉法基的水泥产能是1295万吨,YTL水泥以595万吨紧随其后,CIMA是340万吨,Tasek Corp的产能是230万吨,Hume Cemnet和Holcim Malaysia的产能则分别为200万吨。

  马来西亚银行投行部的最新报告显示,受去年CIMA新产能及今年二季度即将投产的YTL产能的影响,马拉西亚水泥平均销售价格竞争激烈。

  Research house预计今年水泥行业增长5%左右,2014年在8%~9%。

  据传,Lafarge Malaysia的水泥厂扩张正在继续,今年底拉法基集团产能将增加5%。Lafarge Malaysia是边佳兰(Pengerang) 地区Rapid(炼油和石化产品集成开发计划)和其他马来西亚石油公司相关项目的混凝土独家供应商,五年项目价值超过2.54亿马币。

  马来西亚银行投行部表示,如果拉法基2014年的盈利部分地受到生产问题的影响,这些问题导致低的销量和高的维修/维护成本,那么今年由于生产恢复,预计它的盈利将改善。

  “我们调低2015财年预期每股收益11%,这主要是基于市场份额下降1%至38%的假设(考虑来自YTL的新产能)”,它们表示。此外它对2016年2017财年的每股收益预期并没有改变。

  然而,Research house依然预期拉法基和豪瑞的合并将在今年的六月完成,它们表示马来西亚的合并将在后续展开,可直接提高5%的盈利。扩大后的集团能长期从柔佛州强大的销售网络获利,它们维持Lafarge Malaysia持有评级和原有的9.3马币的目标价。

  此外,MIDF Research维持Lafarge Malaysia“中性”评级,指出Lafarge Malaysia水泥2014年的盈利低于它们及市场的预期。

  拉法基的EBITDA利润率和扣除税、摊销、少数股东权益后利润率分别缩小到18.4%和9.3%。

  除了激烈的竞争,拉法基去年第四季度业绩下滑主要是由于电费、燃料和工厂维护成本上涨导致营运成本增加,

  它们相信,马来西亚产能过剩将继续存在(目前总产能2980万吨)从而影响水泥的平均销售价格和拉法基的盈利水平。

  此外,虽然Tasek Corp公司2014财年收入增长13.7%至6.56亿马币,归属股东的利润增长11.9%至1.05亿马币,但是它在年度报告中表示,对今年的前景保持谨慎乐观。去,高销售年公司每股收益从77.29毛上升至86.46毛,它将其归功于本国上半年强劲的需求,高销售收入和良好的定价。然而,2014年下半年,尽管净收益增长,但由于激烈的价格竞争,利润同比2013年更低。

  总体而言,国内水泥市场今年预计是健康运行的,但是如果企业持续面临激烈的价格竞争、产能过剩、煤炭价格上涨和其他税收方面的风险,他们能否维持长期的利润增长值得商榷。

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

China Concrete Network and China Cement Network sincerely invite qualified enterprises to participate in the grand event of "2024 Top 100 Enterprises in Concrete Industry" to witness and shape the brilliant future of the concrete industry.

2024-12-27 15:01:07

Whether Red Lion Group can use new ideas to break the current predicament of the domestic photovoltaic industry remains to be tested by time. But "cold winter" more than a year, suddenly appeared a new player to open the posture to attack, but also to add some sunshine to the industry.

2024-12-27 10:54:21

In this context, the 26th International Cement Technology and Equipment Exhibition will become an important platform to promote industry innovation, bringing together the world's top suppliers, displaying cutting-edge technology and equipment, and many conference activities will be carried out simultaneously during the exhibition, building a one-stop communication bridge for exhibitors and professional audiences, not only promoting domestic brands. It also helps overseas brands to enter China, thus building a more diversified and specialized global cement industry exchange platform.

2024-12-27 09:27:20

Due to the continuing downturn in the downstream construction industry, some Korean cement companies predict that domestic cement demand will fall below 40 million tons in 2025.

2024-12-25 14:32:26

At present, many industries in our country appear market involution, and enterprises are also fighting price war, which seriously affects the profits of enterprises, but also affects the stock prices of many listed companies. Although the occurrence of large-scale industry involution is related to the overcapacity of the industry, it is also related to the competitive concept of enterprises, the low-price bidding of the industry and the blind low-price competition. Therefore, how to carry out healthy competition, how to overcome industry involution, how to carry out reasonable pricing, these are the problems we must face and solve.

2024-12-24 18:33:47

On the demand side of the ready-mixed concrete industry, this round of demand cycle has ended, and before the arrival of the next consumption cycle, the ideal state is that the demand enters a plateau or slowly declines, and the possibility of sustained decline is greater; on the supply side, the situation of serious overcapacity in the concrete industry can not be fundamentally reversed in the short term.

2024-12-23 10:03:36

In May 2022, Huaxin invested in the construction of Xizang's first cement kiln co-processing domestic waste environmental protection plant in Shannan City, Xizang, and has disposed of nearly 200,000 tons of domestic waste, which has been recognized and praised by all walks of life in the local area. At present, Huaxin has built and operated nearly 40 eco-environmental protection disposal plants at home and abroad, dealing with nearly 25 million tons of domestic waste and other national waste, making a strong contribution to local construction of ecological civilization.

2024-12-19 15:37:46

Li Yeqing reviewed the contribution of Huaxin Cement to the cause of standardization and emphasized the importance of standardization to the development of the industry. He said that Huaxin Cement is actively promoting green, low-carbon and intelligent transformation, leading the development of industry standardization through technological innovation. Huaxin Cement will uphold an open attitude, be willing to share the achievements of standardization construction with all partners, jointly meet the challenges, and promote China's cement industry to occupy a more favorable position in the global competition.

2024-12-19 14:46:16

"The development prospect of renewable fuel in cement industry is very broad and has many positive meanings." Zhu Beixin, general manager of Golden Sunshine, told China Cement Network that the introduction of renewable fuels not only injected new impetus into the development of the cement industry, opened up new sources of economic benefits, but also expanded new ways of resource utilization.

2024-12-18 16:18:08

Li Yeqing, president of Huaxin Cement, mentioned in an investor relations event in the first half of this year that Huaxin Cement does not have too many restrictions on overseas development in the region, and the company will expand along a region, such as Africa in the recent stage, Asia is still looking for opportunities, and South America will go in the future. If Huaxin is committed to becoming a global multinational company, it will not stick to or be confined to a certain country or region.

2024-12-18 13:20:19

On December 17, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a press conference to introduce the Action Plan for the Optimization and Upgrading of Raw Materials Industry (2025-2027), as well as the measures and results to promote the high-quality development of raw materials industry.

2024-12-17 14:31:45

As soon as the news came out, people in the industry and the financial market reacted strongly. Such a large-scale repurchase and cancellation of shares is not common in the field of building materials and even in the whole market. What kind of signal does China's building materials release to the market? The author will focus on the following points.

2024-12-13 09:46:22

On December 10, 2024, Taiwan Cement Group held the completion ceremony of Taiwan Cement Hangzhou Gongliang Building Project, marking the official sailing of Taiwan Cement Mainland Operating Headquarters. Nearly 300 guests from home and abroad, including Long Mingbiao, executive vice president of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits, Yan Xiaofeng, president of the China Building Materials Federation, Xu Xiaoguang, director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of Zhejiang Province, Zhu Jianming, member of the Standing Committee of the Hangzhou Municipal Committee, and Sun Xudong, member of the Standing Committee of the Hangzhou Municipal Committee and Secretary of the Xiaoshan District Committee, attended the ceremony. Taiwan Cement Group from Turkey, Portugal, Italy and other regions, including Taiwan, OYAK Cement, Cimpor Cement, NHOA Energy、

2024-12-10 13:26:52

ICRA believes that due to the slowdown of construction activities during the general election in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 and the impact of strong monsoon rains in the second quarter on the growth of cement production in India, which is slower than expected, it has slightly revised its forecast for the growth of cement production in fiscal year 2025 from 7-8% released in July 2024 to 4-5%..

2024-12-09 16:01:22

In the current severe and complex international environment, opportunities and challenges coexist in promoting the high-quality development of the "the Belt and Road", but on the whole, opportunities outweigh challenges. We should strengthen our strategic self-confidence, maintain our strategic determination, take the initiative and create a brighter future for the "the Belt and Road".

2024-12-04 16:08:56

Recently, China Material International said that in order to promote the international distribution of cement business and achieve the strategic goal of "cement plus" industry development, China Material Cement intends to set up a new SPV company in the United Arab Emirates through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hong Kong SPV Company, and introduce other investors. Acquisition of 100% equity of CJO in Tunisia and its affiliated GJO with SPV in the United Arab Emirates as the main body. The final acquisition price is based on the consideration of US $130 million, which is determined by adjusting the difference between the audited cash, debt and working capital on the actual delivery date and the corresponding level of the delivery account on the valuation base date, up to US $145 million.

2024-12-04 11:16:49

On December 1, Huaxin Cement announced that it intends to acquire Holley Nigeria Caricement B. V and Davis Peak Holding for US $838 million (RMB 6.082 billion). 100% equity interest in Limited. Huaxin Cement's overseas business has become an important business pillar of the company, and this acquisition is expected to open up a new pattern of Huaxin's overseas market, which is an important fulcrum for the company to expand the West African cement market.

2024-12-03 09:27:50

On the evening of December 1, Huaxin Cement announced that it planned to purchase equity assets for $838 million (about RMB 6.082 billion) and eventually hold control of a listed company in Nigeria.

2024-12-02 10:25:57

On November 24, Yu Feng, chairman of Shangfeng Cement, was invited to Tsinghua University to give a wonderful lecture to the students of EMBA23 Industry Class 1. The theme of this lecture is "Transformation and Upgrading of Traditional Industries and Corporate Governance-Innovative Practice of Shangfeng", which aims to provide students with experience and enlightenment in transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and corporate governance through the practical cases of Shangfeng Cement.

2024-11-29 15:55:42

On October 28, 2024, General Secretary Xi Jinping, presiding over the 17th collective study of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on building a strong cultural country, stressed that we should anchor the strategic goal of building a strong cultural country in 2035, adhere to the fundamental guiding ideology of Marxism, root in the broad and profound Chinese civilization, and conform to the trend of information technology development. The socialist culture with Chinese characteristics in the new era with strong ideological leadership, spiritual cohesion, value appeal and international influence will constantly strengthen the people's spiritual strength and lay a solid cultural foundation for the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation. China Cement Association Corporate Culture Seminar 2024

2024-11-28 13:24:22

Involution is a roadblock to the development of the industry and a fat stone to move forward, which is harmful but not beneficial. Because the core of involution competition is to protect oneself, protect the market, and fight price war, once the enterprise is difficult to operate and its efficiency declines, without economic support, the enterprise is like a body drive with its skeleton and blood removed, unable to gain a foothold, it can no longer have new ideals and goals, can no longer concentrate on technological innovation and effective technological transformation, and can no longer take society and the overall situation into account. It is impossible to truly achieve green, low-carbon and digital operation, in short, enterprises without economic support will be eliminated and eliminated sooner or later, where can we talk about progress and development?

2024-11-15 18:10:09

Sincerely hope that colleagues, the future of the cement industry where to go, carry out a big discussion within the industry, brainstorm, and work together to break the situation!

2024-11-13 15:58:52

With the gradual expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market, it has brought higher requirements and greater pressure for carbon management in all walks of life. To establish and improve the carbon management system is to respond to the national dual-carbon strategy, which is also the future development trend; to improve the carbon emission management of enterprises, which can provide comprehensive analysis and decision-making for the future development strategy of enterprises; and to accurately predict the changes in the carbon market, strengthen the enterprise's response to climate change risks in all aspects, and guide the preservation and appreciation of carbon assets.

2024-11-13 11:19:44

Born in January 1929 in Xinhui, Guangdong Province, Lui Chi-wo is a well-known industrialist, philanthropist and social activist in Hong Kong, China. He has won the "Golden Bauhinia Star" of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government and the Outstanding Educational Contribution Award of Peking University.

2024-11-12 09:16:51

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Chongqing in the southwest region is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Zhaotong in Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining in Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Yibin and Luzhou is partially dropped.

2024-11-08 17:19:35

According to the statistics of Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association, in October 2024, Pakistan's domestic cement sales volume was 3.276 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.49% compared with 3.292 million tons in October 2023. The slowdown of domestic private sector construction industry led to the stagnation of cement demand in Pakistan's domestic market, but the export increased by 51.29%.

2024-11-05 15:40:06

Nowadays, with the rise of local enterprises, such as Ningbo Yiyu Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. and other high-tech enterprises, relying on their professional R & D and production capacity in the field of dust removal products and pneumatic components, they provide cement plants with reliable and cost-effective localization alternatives.

2024-11-05 13:54:53

Recently, at the invitation of Heidelberg Materials Group, Executive Director Tong Laigou, accompanied by Deputy General Manager and General Counsel Ma Aiguo and Deputy General Manager Wang Bin, went to Brevik of Heidelberg Materials Group. Factory survey and high-level meeting with Heidelberg Materials Group. Axel Conrads, Chief Technology Officer, Heidelberg Materials Group Warmly welcome Tong Laigou and his delegation to visit, comprehensively introduce the development plan of Heidelberg Materials Group, share its carbon emission reduction targets and CCUS planning, and point out that Sinoma Construction is an international company worthy of trust and trust, and hope that Sinoma Construction will extensively participate in the group's low-carbon development.

2024-11-05 13:07:08

At 9:58 on November 1, a truck loaded with 53.5 tons of glue powder, with a long whistle, slowly left the north of Baicheng in the morning light and headed for Mongolia! This is the first time that Northern Cement and Changsha Mining Research Institute of China Minmetals have joined forces to produce glue powder independently and successfully with the help of the "the Belt and Road" Dongfeng, and the first order has been shipped to Mongolia. It marks that Northern Cement has thoroughly implemented the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the Twentieth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, actively practiced the "the Belt and Road" initiative, centered on the strategic goal of internationalization of China Building Material Group, vigorously exploited the international market, entered the ranks of foreign trade business, and enhanced its core competitiveness.

2024-11-05 10:58:48

Based on the market situation of the cement industry and the demand for high-quality and low-carbon development of Conch Cement, Conch will strengthen the research and development of technologies such as energy saving and carbon reduction, green environmental protection, clean energy and low-carbon cement. The main research directions of Conch's scientific and technological innovation in the future are as follows: 1. Research and development project of raw material and fuel substitution in the cement industry; 2. Research and development project of cement clinker quality improvement; 3. Energy-saving and carbon-reducing technical equipment R & D project; 4. Clean and green energy R & D and manufacturing project; 5. Future carbon technology industry exploration project.

2024-11-02 16:34:25

At the meeting, Yan Haochun brought the theme report "Dream of Blue Sky: Exploring the Green Footprint of Cement Industry in the Context of Carbon Market". She pointed out that the cement industry faced the risk of rising costs in the context of the carbon market.

2024-11-01 16:10:56

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Looking forward to the future, we still need to continue our efforts in breaking through the existing clinker system, innovating the design of new low-carbon clinker (new clinker), breaking through the time lag and multi-scale barriers, building a digital system without "gap" in the whole process, maximizing the value of data, and supporting low-carbon in the whole process (time-sharing power consumption, coal consumption, low-carbon ratio, etc.).

2024-10-29 14:07:23

By 2025, the national and provincial carbon emission annual report and express report system will be fully established, a number of industry and enterprise carbon emission accounting standards and product carbon footprint accounting standards will be issued and implemented, positive progress will be made in the construction of product carbon footprint management system, and the national greenhouse gas emission factor database will be basically completed and regularly updated. The ability of measurement, detection, monitoring and analysis of carbon emissions has been significantly improved.

2024-10-25 10:05:07

What is happening in the cement industry?

2024-10-21 07:01:25

Let us work together to practice the concept of green development with practical actions and contribute our strength to the realization of the country's "double carbon" goal. Look forward to your participation and jointly create a bright future for the cement industry!

2024-10-18 13:57:30

Enterprises also need to understand the operation process of the carbon emission trading market, including the declaration, verification and reporting of carbon emission data, the allocation, trading and clearance of quotas, especially the accuracy of carbon emission data will directly affect the quota allocation and transaction costs of enterprises. Enterprises also need to pay attention to the dynamics and trends of the carbon emissions trading market, understand the market price fluctuations, trading activity and other information, in order to formulate reasonable trading strategies and risk management measures.

2024-10-17 11:20:09

Every employee should know what emission sources are available in his position, what emission reduction measures are available, and how much emission reduction can be achieved by these measures, so that they can understand the principle of emission, learn the method of accounting, use the carbon management platform, and improve the carbon management ability of each position, so as to achieve "carbon management in the whole process".

2024-10-16 13:15:57

Near the end of the year, the domestic concrete market demand continued to weaken, the cost support declined compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete in many places declined steadily. From December 19 to December 25, the national concrete price index closed at 111.39 points, down 0.80% annually and 10.97% year-on-year.