2022年量稳价跌 2023年浙江水泥行业不确定因素多

2023-02-05 11:15:49

尽管水泥需求“跑赢”大多数省份,但水泥价格的持续下跌,以及煤炭等成本的高企,吞噬了浙江水泥企业的利润,“颤颤巍巍”“勉勉强强”“走一步看一步”成了多数水泥企业对2022年的总结。

水泥产量回落至近11年最低值,水泥价格持续下跌,全行业利润预计同比大幅缩水……对水泥行业而言,过去的2022年注定是心酸、无奈的一年,“滑铁卢”般的市场态势也让许多水泥企业走到了“生死边缘”。

一直以来,长三角都是水泥市场的风向标,而身处风向标中心的浙江在2022年又是什么样的状况呢?

需求相对平稳 价格跌幅较大

“量增价降,效益是2021年的三分之一。”杭州一水泥大企负责人告诉中国水泥网,2022年虽然水泥价格不尽人意,但是企业的各项指标还是比较优秀的。

嘉兴一水泥企业在2021年也是类似情况。“2022年水泥销售超750万吨,比2021年增加了20万吨左右。”该企业生产负责人透露,由于市场不景气,水泥价格表现欠佳。

即便有水泥企业销量下滑,但与全国多数省份的水泥企业比较,下滑幅度较小。“2022年水泥销量同比下降约10%。”、“2022年全年水泥销量650多万吨,比2021年的700万吨少,情况勉勉强强。”衢州、湖州的两家水泥企业对中国水泥网表示。

综合调研情况来看,2022年浙江水泥需求依旧保持了相对稳定的态势,但水泥价格却是大幅下跌。

从国家统计局的数据就可见一斑,数据显示,2022年1-11月浙江省水泥产量为1.19亿吨,同比下降3.46%,需求情况优于全国多数地区。

中国水泥网跟踪的浙江水泥价格走势图显示,2022年开年以来,浙江水泥价格“跌跌不休”,年末水泥价格相较年初已下滑超过150元/吨,全年均价下降幅度大。

尽管水泥需求“跑赢”大多数省份,但水泥价格的持续下跌,以及煤炭等成本的高企,吞噬了浙江水泥企业的利润,“颤颤巍巍”“勉勉强强”“走一步看一步”成了多数水泥企业对2022年的总结。

2023年不确定因素多

“2023年总体不容乐观。”杭州一水泥大企负责人认为,市场总需求量下降,华东地区重点工程和房地产投资项目不明朗,这都是“不容乐观”的原因。

嘉兴一水泥企业生产主管表示,2023年不确定因素很多,如国际形势变化、基建投资落地情况等,所以很难预测全年的市场态势,即便本企业产能大,竞争力较强,但行情的波动对企业来说同样“杀伤力”巨大,未来只能“走一步看一步。”

“2023年上半年压力应该会很大,下半年的话得看重点项目等的落地情况。”衢州、湖州两家水泥企业负责人表达了类似的看法。

面对2023年略显悲观的预期,浙江水泥企业应该如何应对?“降本”成了水泥企业多次提及的字眼。

“一是降本增效,加强内部管理。二是转型升级优化技术指标。三是避免价格的恶性竞争。”杭州一水泥大企负责人对中国水泥网表示,“此外,需要注意的是,今后没矿山资源的工厂都将难以生存。”

就在日前,浙江省政府办公厅印发了《浙江省扩大有效投资“千项万亿”工程实施方案(2023—2027年)》。其中提到,每年滚动谋划推进省重大项目1000个以上,每年完成投资1万亿元以上,为全省推进“两个先行”提供强劲支撑。

相信随着“千项万亿”工程的推进,也将很大程度上提振浙江水泥企业的信心。

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The key reason is that even if companies want to shut down now, it is difficult to find buyers willing to take over. The essence of capital is the pursuit of profit, no enterprise is willing to "self-sacrifice" for no reason, they all hope to get better returns when they exit the market as far as possible.

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The way out for the cement industry needs to be constantly explored and summarized in practice. The market school and the synergy school have different views, but the common goal is to promote the healthy development of the cement industry. At present, the insufficient demand for cement is the general trend of the economic cycle, which is irreversible in the short term. As a participant in the development of the industry, we should not only have the keen insight of the market school, but also have the overall outlook of the synergy school, maintain strategic strength and firm confidence in development.

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We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11