Under the background of the deep adjustment of the real estate industry and the continuous weakening of cement demand, on the eve of the China Cement Industry Summit, Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Kerui Research Center, pointed out in an interview with China Cement Network that the real estate industry is still in the period of stabilization and adjustment in 2025. As an upstream related industry, the cement industry will face multiple tests of shrinking demand, price pressure and accelerated industry integration.
Yang Kewei pointed out that in 2025, the real estate industry is still in a period of stabilization and adjustment, with a relaxed policy environment and changes in market demand structure-second-hand housing is better than new housing, and the main force of weakening demand will lead to a slowdown in the growth of development investment, and the scale of land acquisition and new construction is still at a low level. It is expected that the sales area of commercial housing will continue to decline by 5% -10% this year, the construction area of land investment will decline by 10% -15%, the new construction area of real estate enterprises will decline by 15% -20%, the peak of guaranteed delivery has passed, and the completed area is expected to decline by 5% -10%.
Looking forward to the future, real estate enterprises are expected to be cautious, and a few enterprises are cautiously optimistic about the core cities and market segments. This expectation is based on multiple factors such as policy environment, market demand, financial pressure and land market differentiation. In the future, the market will show a pattern of differentiation, the core cities may take the lead in stabilizing, and other second-tier and third-tier and fourth-tier cities still need a long time to adjust. Housing enterprises will continue to adopt a prudent strategy, focusing on cash flow security and high-quality projects to cope with market uncertainty.
As an important downstream demand side of cement, the continuous adjustment of the real estate market is having a deep impact on the cement industry. Yang Kewei said that the downturn in the real estate industry will directly lead to a reduction in cement demand, a decline in cement prices , further compression of corporate profit margins, will also aggravate the problem of overcapacity, accelerate industry integration, and some enterprises may withdraw from the market through mergers and reorganizations.
In the painful period of deep adjustment of the industry, the survival rules of the cement industry are being rewritten. Those enterprises that can accurately control the regional market rhythm and flexibly adjust the industrial layout may win new development opportunities in this wave. On March 13-14,
2025, China Cement Network will hold the " 14th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony " in Hangzhou, and the "Cement Economy 50 Forum" will be held at the same time. This summit will bring together industry elites and multi-resources to discuss and deal with the difficulties faced by the industry from the perspectives of optimal allocation of supply side, precise docking of demand side, deep insight into macro-economy and frontier promotion of technological innovation, and jointly create a new chapter for the industry! At the meeting, Yang Kewei will bring a wonderful report. Hurry up to sign up!
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