In 2015, China's cement consumption declined for the first time after reaching its peak, coupled with the continuous production of new production lines, the contradiction of industry surplus intensified, and supply-side structural reform policies such as capacity replacement and peak staggering production were introduced one after another. In the following years, due to the overall decline in demand, coupled with factors such as the commissioning of new lines and technological upgrading, the problem of industry surplus became more and more serious. In 2024, the real utilization rate of clinker production capacity was around 50%, reaching a new stage low. In this paper, by sorting out the production status of new clinker production lines in the past ten years (2015-2024), we appeal to cement enterprises to carefully consider the production of new lines and build a high-quality development path for the industry!
The new production capacity is nearly 300 million tons, exceeding 40 million tons
in 2021. From 2015 to 2024, 216 clinker production lines were put into operation by cement enterprises, with a production capacity of 290 million tons. Specifically, from 2015 to 2019, the number of production and production capacity declined as a whole, and 16 new clinker lines were put into operation in 2019, with a production capacity of 20.77 million tons. From 2020 to 2021, due to the high level of industry profits and the increase of replacement projects since 2017, the new production capacity has increased significantly, and 41.664 million tons have been put into production in 2021, which is the highest level in the past ten years. From 2022 to 2024, the industry demand entered a downward period, profits were greatly reduced, many projects were suspended or postponed, the number of new production lines and production capacity were synchronized, and in 2024, it dropped to the lowest level in nearly ten years.
Figure 1: New clinker production lines in the past decade
Data source: Cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
The proportion of new production capacity in Guangxi, Guizhou and Yunnan exceeds 30%, and that in Guangxi exceeds 40 million tons
. In terms of provinces, in the past ten years, except for Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hainan and other four provinces (cities) where no new lines have been put into operation, new lines have been put into operation in other regions. Among them, Guangxi region has more production capacity, with 40.393 million tons of new production capacity, accounting for 13.8%, and the production capacity in 2022 is the largest, exceeding 13 million tons; Guizhou region has production capacity of 28.024 million tons, accounting for 9.6%, ranking second; Yunnan region has production capacity of 26.288 million tons, accounting for 9%. A large number of production capacity has led to the serious overcapacity in the above-mentioned areas. The author predicts that Guizhou is the most serious area at present, with the overcapacity rate exceeding 60%. Sichuan, Qinghai, Chongqing and other places have less new production capacity, less than 2 million tons.
Table 1: Capacity
of new production lines in each region in the past ten years Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Large enterprises have more new production, led by
China Building Materials From the information of new production lines of enterprises in the past ten years, large enterprises have more new production capacity and obvious head effect. According to the data, CNBM has 27 new clinker production lines, with a total production capacity of 42,501,000 tons, accounting for 14.5% of the total production capacity, leading the country; Red Lion Holding Group has a production capacity of 24,862,000 tons, accounting for 8.5% of the total production capacity, ranking second; Conch Cement has a production capacity of 22.94 million tons, accounting for 7.9% of the total production capacity, second only to CNBM and Red Lion Holding Group. Overall, the top 16 enterprises have invested 163 million tons of production capacity, accounting for 55.9%, and large enterprises have a relatively high proportion of new production capacity.
Table 2: Newly invested clinker production lines
of major enterprises in recent ten years Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
2025 Newly invested production capacity of nearly 12 million tons
According to the tracking of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, the current production capacity of clinker production lines under construction is 22.712 million tons, of which 11.935 million tons are expected to be put into production in 2025, and the new production capacity continues to decline year on year. Nevertheless, it is expected that the demand side will continue to maintain a downward trend, and the production of new lines will inevitably aggravate the pressure on the operation of the industry. The author appeals that cement enterprises should proceed from the overall situation of the industry and carefully consider putting new clinker production lines on the market!
Table 3: Data source of production line
under construction: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
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