Cement net exclusive: The main contradiction in the current cement industry is the contradiction between the sharp decline in demand and insufficient efforts to cut overcapacity.

As we all know, the current cement industry is very difficult, the operation rate is declining, the profit is declining seriously, some enterprises have lost money, and the demand for cement has fallen below the platform period and entered a fast decline channel, of which the decline in 2024 is close to 10%, and it is expected that the decline in 2025 will be slightly reduced, also between 5% and 8%. Experts predict that by 2030, the national cement demand will be about 1.3 billion tons, and in the long run, the cement demand will be maintained at about 1 billion tons.

At present, the cement production capacity is more than 3.6 billion tons. , but the impact of capacity decline is in all aspects, and they do not want to take the initiative to eliminate themselves." As a result, the current efforts to reduce production capacity are far from reaching the speed of demand decline, and the industry operation rate is getting lower and lower. As a result, the main contradiction in the current cement industry has been formed: the contradiction between the rapid decline in cement demand and the insufficient efforts to reduce production capacity.

1.

If the cement demand of the clinker production line is 1.3 billion tons by 2030, 936 million tons of clinker will be needed according to the clinker coefficient of 0.72. Annual clinker production capacity 13.1

is needed. How many new clinker line projects will be built in the future? How many tons of production capacity can be reduced? At present, most cement enterprises have realized that it is meaningless to build new clinker lines. Most of the preparatory lines only have capacity replacement announcements, and there is no substantive civil construction. By 2025, 10 clinker lines have been announced to cancel new construction, and 10 clinker lines have been announced to cancel new construction in 23-24 years. Part of the new clinker production capacity has been announced to supplement the existing clinker production capacity.

In the future, there will be fewer and fewer new clinker lines. At present, there are about 10 clinker lines in substantial operation. It is expected that about 7 clinker lines will be put into operation in 25 years. It is expected that less than 5 clinker lines will be put into operation in 26 years. In 27 years, it will be reduced to 1-2 or even 0 clinker lines per year. It is estimated that about 17 new lines will be put into operation in 25-30 years. If all of them are replaced by 2:1 production capacity with a daily output of 5,000 tons, the daily output of clinker can be reduced by 8.2

tons. How many tons of production capacity can be reduced by supplementing the production capacity of the current clinker line? According to the supplementary capacity of 500 tons for each line, all 2:1 reduction replacement, the national daily capacity can be reduced by 250000 tons, according to the annual production of 300 days, the annual capacity can be reduced by 75 million tons.

3. According to the latest policy, if the annual operation days of the kiln line are determined as 330 days, 300 days and 270 days, how many tons of production capacity can be reduced?

the clinker line that is currently identified as producing 270 days, It is not clear how to calculate the capacity if it is replaced or supplemented by capacity. For example, there is a 2500-ton production line in Plant A that has been identified for 270 days. Now the capacity is replaced to the 4500-ton kiln line in Plant B to supplement the capacity. Is it because the operation is reduced by 30 days? At present, 1.

The total capacity of the above three situations is 2. The state has issued a new "GB175-2023", which cancels part of 32.2

. Energy consumption improvement. The state has issued GB16780-2021, which is the most advanced energy consumption standard in the world. The current policy requires that the energy consumption of all new enterprises must meet the first-class energy consumption standard, and that the proportion of production capacity above the benchmark level of energy efficiency should reach 30% by the end of 2025, and that the production capacity below the benchmark level of energy efficiency should complete technological transformation or be eliminated. In the past two years, the industry has vigorously carried out energy-saving transformation, the use of alternative fuels and other measures, at present, this requirement can be basically achieved by the end of 2025. At present, the clinker production lines are all advanced in energy consumption, and there are few clinker production lines that are compulsorily eliminated through energy consumption indicators.

3. Improvement of environmental protection standards. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments jointly issued the Opinions on Promoting the Implementation of Ultra-low Emissions in the Cement Industry, aiming to make significant progress in key areas by the end of 2025 and strive to complete the transformation of 50% of cement clinker production capacity. Large state-owned enterprise groups in the region will basically complete the transformation of organized and unorganized ultra-low emission; by the end of 2028, cement clinker production enterprises in key regions will basically complete the transformation, and 80% of the cement clinker production capacity in the whole country will be transformed. From the current actual situation, many enterprises are grasping the transformation, this requirement can basically be achieved, through the improvement of environmental protection standards can reduce production capacity is also limited.

4. Cement industry is included in carbon emissions. The cement industry has decided to include carbon emissions in 2024, but in 2024, carbon indicators will be issued according to actual carbon emissions, and in 25-27 years, the policy will be relatively loose, which will not have the effect of eliminating backward production capacity, and will be strictly implemented after 27 years to accelerate the reduction of production capacity. At present, the

first three policies have achieved certain results, but they have only promoted the progress of capacity removal in the past two years, and on the whole, they have not achieved additional capacity removal effect. Other policies such as intelligent transformation, alternative fuels and new energy applications of photovoltaic energy storage are not mandatory means, which can not achieve the purpose of compulsory capacity removal. So what other means of capacity reduction are there? At present, Shandong Province has implemented and eliminated 2500 tons of ordinary clinker production line by the end of 2024. From Shandong's experience, it can indeed achieve certain results. However, after the closure of 2500 tons of clinker production line in Shandong Province, the clinker production capacity is still excessive. From the national point of view, except for some remote mountainous provinces, policies have been introduced to eliminate ordinary silicate clinker production lines of 2500 tons or less by the end of 27 years (except for special clinker, carbide slag clinker lines and individual clinker lines that have been transformed into local solid hazardous waste co-disposal). At present, there are more than 500 clinker production lines with 2500 tons or less in China. In addition to more than 100 lines such as special cement and carbide slag clinker lines, there are more than 300 clinker lines. In the past two years, new capacity replacement and compliance supplementary capacity are expected to shut down more than 200 lines on their own initiative. If the compulsory shutdown of 2500 tons or less ordinary clinker lines is introduced by the end of 27 years, It is estimated that about 100 clinker production lines of 2500 tons will be shut down and the production capacity will be reduced by about 75 million tons.

2. Shut down the clinker production line of the mine without self-provided limestone. Up to now, there are still about dozens of clinker lines that have no self-owned mines for various reasons and rely on purchased limestone to maintain production; The limestone mine is the core raw material and competitiveness of the clinker plant. In the previous

3. Large enterprises take the initiative to reduce production capacity. According to the current situation of serious overcapacity, large enterprises should take the initiative to adjust the structure, reduce the clinker line with high production cost and low operation rate in areas with serious overcapacity, and reduce their own operating costs. This part of production capacity is not easy to estimate at present.

4. Large enterprises merge small enterprises and shut down production capacity. This part is the most difficult. At present, some small and medium-sized enterprises still have illusions. They think they have regional advantages and have made money in the past few years. At present, the debt ratio is very low, the depreciation is basically completed, and the operating cost is relatively low. They are unwilling to be acquired by leading enterprises, or think that their valuation is very high. It is difficult to reach an agreement on the purchase price.

5. Set up a national-level cement industry merger and reorganization fund : set up a special fund for industry integration, buy out and shut down part of the production capacity in areas with excess production capacity, give priority to the placement of employees and the payment of upstream and downstream suppliers, etc.; the industry has always had this proposal, but it is difficult to implement.

6. Fully compete in the market and shut down production capacity independently. Full market competition, fight to the end, who can not go on, take the initiative to shut down.

7. Relying on the export of clinker and cement to indirectly reduce domestic production capacity. According to the export data of cement and clinker in the past ten years, the export volume is very small, and in good years, it is only several million tons, which is too small for the national production capacity, and in the surrounding South Korea, Japan, Vietnam and other places, the surplus of cement is also serious, and they are also actively exporting cement and clinker.

At present, the excess capacity of cement grinding is more serious than that of clinker. At present, the excess capacity of cement grinding is not only the improvement of quality, energy consumption and environmental protection, but also the improvement of ultra-low emission. 3. At the provincial level, some provinces such as Shandong have begun to eliminate 3. In addition, Shandong and Hebei have formulated provincial cement grinding capacity replacement measures.At the national level, there is no replacement method for cement grinding capacity, and the state controls cement production capacity by grasping clinker production capacity. It is suggested to introduce the following policies to reduce the production capacity of

cement grinding:

1. Introduce the national replacement measures for the production capacity of cement grinding. At present, there is a serious surplus of cement production capacity in the whole country. It is suggested that the replacement across provinces should not be allowed, and the replacement should be compulsorily reduced at a ratio of more than 2:1.

2. Eliminate mills of less than 3.2 meters nationwide, and some eastern provinces take the lead in canceling 3.3

. Eliminate cement grinding stations of less than 600,000 tons nationwide.

4. Strengthen the supervision and spot check on the energy consumption indicators of small grinding stations, and accelerate the elimination of the production capacity of small grinding stations through the differentiated electricity price policy.

The above measures are some of the current means and methods to reduce production capacity. In the face of the rapid decline in demand, the cement industry must have a clear understanding that only by resolutely reducing production capacity and maintaining a reasonable operation rate of the industry, can disorderly competition in the industry be eliminated and the reasonable profits of the industry be guaranteed; At the same time, it is also necessary to resolutely stop some small cement plants that have been eliminated from illegal production or preparation of fake cement sales, to increase the market efforts to crack down on counterfeit and inferior cement, and to maintain the reputation of the industry; peak-shifting production can only solve short-term problems, not cure the symptoms, but ultimately to reduce capacity; the cement industry still has a long way to go to reduce capacity, which requires the joint efforts of all.

In the long journey of cement industry to reduce production capacity, carbon emissions may become a key breakthrough point. In order to accelerate the realization of the "double carbon target" and actively promote the green and high-quality development of the industry, China Cement Network will be launched on May 27-28, 2025. < a href = "https://www.ccement.com/news/content/55312701933175001." This conference will bring together industry elites and resources. Provide all-round support for the industry in terms of technology, policy landing and resource docking.