the Spring Festival, the market is highly concerned about the trend of sand and gravel in the new year. 2024 is an indisputable year of sand and gravel shrinkage. Demand is fatigue, supply is excessive, sand and gravel prices continue to decline in depth, profits are reduced, and labor pains are difficult to stop. In the new year of 2025, whether to continue to struggle in the cold winter or to break the ice, the market gave guidance at the beginning of the year:
First, the new orders index of non-manufacturing construction industry recorded a new low, and the market boom declined
. In January 2025, the new orders index of non-manufacturing PMI-construction industry recorded 44.7%. The index fell below the 50% boom-bust line, indicating a sharp contraction in construction market activity and a decline in market prosperity. In January 2024, the index recorded 46.7%, falling below the 50-60% platform range of the non-manufacturing PMI-construction new orders index for the first time since the same period in January 2013. In January 2025, the index continued to decline on the basis of January 2024, with a serious lack of confidence in the construction market.
Figure 1: Non-manufacturing PMI-construction new orders index hit a new low
in January Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
II. After
the Spring Festival, it is a critical period for all industries to resume work and production, but the sand and gravel industry has ushered in a bleak start. In the Glutinous Rice Balls for Lantern Festival week of 2025, the cement delivery rate is 13.93%, which is the lowest weekly delivery rate of cement Glutinous Rice Balls for Lantern Festival in the past five years. Cement and sand are building materials, which are closely related to each other. The cement shipment rate largely reflects the resumption of work of downstream construction enterprises. The poor cement shipment rate in the Glutinous Rice Balls for Lantern Festival week of 2025 also means that the resumption of work in the downstream building materials market is not ideal. According to the investigation and research of the Cement Research Institute, after the Spring Festival, the project funds are not in place, the pressure of localized debt and the tight cash flow of the project have formed a double constraint on the market, the downstream mixing stations and concrete enterprises are facing greater financial pressure, and most of the projects are started after the 15th Glutinous Rice Balls for Lantern Festival. Due to the slow start of downstream projects, the overall lack of market demand, and the slow resumption of production of sand and gravel enterprises, many enterprises choose to delay the start of construction to cope with the uncertainty of the market. It is expected that the resumption of production of sand and gravel enterprises this year will return to the normal level from late February to mid-March, and the early market will be dominated by inventory clearance.
Figure 2: Weekly cement shipment rate hit a new low
Glutinous Rice Balls for Lantern Festival in the past five years Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
III.
Sand and gravel prices also fell at the beginning of the year. As of February 13, 2025, the national price index of machine-made sand was 81.59 points, and the price index of gravel was 78.1 points, which were 0.73% and 0.66% lower than prices at the beginning of 2025, and the prices of machine-made sand and gravel declined to varying degrees. The continued downward trend of prices not only affects the profitability of sand and gravel enterprises, but also further exacerbates the pessimism of the market.
Figure 3: The price of sand and gravel falls
in the first year of 2025 Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
IV. Market outlook: Take precautions in advance. The annual situation is not optimistic
, the contradiction between supply and demand in the sand and gravel industry is still prominent in 2025, and the problem of overcapacity is difficult to be effectively solved in a short time, especially the incremental capacity of more than one billion tons put into operation by large enterprises during 2022-2024, which will gradually reach production within 2-3 years after putting into operation. The impact on the market is huge. In particular, the production capacity of tens of millions of tons is concentrated in the hands of large enterprises. For small enterprises without mines, the production line cost of large enterprises is lower, and the supply is stable. In addition, the product quality is guaranteed, and there are better brand sales channels. It is relatively easy to obtain orders after entering the market, which has a run effect on the existing market. At the same time, factors such as the continued downturn in real estate investment and the limited pulling effect of infrastructure projects will also continue to restrict the growth of sand and gravel demand. Cement Big Data Research Institute predicts that the national sand and gravel demand will continue to shrink in 2025, and the national sand and gravel demand is expected to decline by 6% -8% in 2025.
To sum up, the sand and gravel industry is entering a period of deep adjustment, and the market situation is not optimistic. Enterprises must take precautions in advance, whether in production or operation, reduce unnecessary expenses, strengthen equipment production management, improve production efficiency, and protect themselves during the painful period of the industry. While reshaping the market competition pattern, enterprises should actively maintain market order, stabilize market prices and reduce the internal friction caused by low-price competition. Large enterprises should take the lead and small enterprises should seek common ground while reserving differences.
