The Lantern Festival has passed, and the market will gradually enter the stage of resumption of production. However, according to a recent survey conducted by Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network, affected by capital and project factors, the pace of downstream resumption of work in 2025 is slower than that of the same period in previous years, and the cement industry is facing pressure to start. Enterprises must build consensus and actively maintain market competition order and price stability.
First, the new orders index of the construction industry dropped to a record low, and the opening data of the cement industry was mixed. Before the Lantern Festival
in 2025, the latest new orders index of the construction industry recorded 44.7%, a sharp drop of 6.7 percentage points compared with the previous value, the lowest level since the data disclosure in 2013. This figure is not only significantly lower than 50% capacity line, but also significantly higher than same period in previous years. This shows that the new demand of downstream construction industry has been shrinking since the beginning of 2025, and the attenuation range far exceeds the historical seasonal fluctuation range.
Figure 1: New orders index and change of construction industry before the Lantern Festival in 2013-2025 (Unit:%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Although the government actively promoted the work of debt conversion at the end of 2024 and alleviated the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure by issuing a large number of refinancing special bonds, the terminal capital environment has not improved significantly in the short term, and the policy effect needs to be further developed. According to the survey, the number of rush projects during the Spring Festival this year has decreased compared with previous years, and the time node for workers to return to work has also been delayed. After the Lantern Festival, there are still many construction sites and mixing stations downstream that have not been officially started, and the terminal demand is still declining compared with the same period of last year's lunar calendar, with some enterprises reporting a decline of more than 3-4%.
Figure 2: Mill operation rate and cement storage-capacity ratio in the first week after the Spring Festival from 2013 to 2025 (Unit:%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Affected by the downturn of downstream activity, Cement industry related data also weakened significantly. In the first week after the Spring Festival in 2025, the operation rate of cement mills dropped to 4.24%, reaching a record low since 2013, even lower than same period during the 2020-2021 epidemic. The above data show that around the Spring Festival of 2025, the cement market demand is unusually low, and the market is facing more severe challenges at the beginning of the year.
However, on the other hand, the regulation of cement enterprises on the supply side has also reached a record high. In January 2025, in addition to the peak-shifting production in the heating season in the northern region, the kiln shutdown time of clinker production lines in most southern regions reached more than 10-20 days, and the peak-shifting time increased significantly compared with the same period in previous years. Against this background, in the first week after the Spring Festival, the domestic cement and clinker inventory ratios dropped to 51.89% and 52.98%, respectively, which were 11.89 percentage points and 12.96 percentage points lower than same period of last year's lunar calendar, and the inventory level was at a low level in the same period of history. It can be seen that in 2025, enterprises have achieved remarkable results in peak staggering, which has created a good realistic basis for price stabilization after the festival.
Table 1: Kiln
Shutdown of Cement Enterprises in 31 Provinces and Cities in China in January 2025 Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
II. Price stabilization and price recovery are still the key tasks
. The new orders in the traditional market have been significantly reduced in the off-season, and the cement price has shown a continuous downward trend since 2025. In the first week after the Spring Festival in 2025, the national cement price index closed at 366.89 yuan/ton, down about 6.73% from the beginning of the year. In absolute terms, since the beginning of 2025, the national cement price has been slightly higher than that of the same period in 2024, reflecting the precious effect of stabilizing the price of cement enterprises in the past few months.
Figure 3: Trend of national cement price index in 2020-2025 (unit: yuan/ton)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
However, The current cement price is still lower than median level of the same period in history, and due to the unusually low market demand around the Spring Festival, the national cement price has fallen more than maximum in the same period in the past five years since the beginning of 2025, and the pressure of price stabilization in the industry is more prominent.
At the present stage, in the case of unfavorable start on the demand side, cement enterprises must cherish the achievements of peak staggering production and price stabilization and recovery, as well as the relatively good industry ecology, strive to maintain orderly market competition, continue to adhere to price stabilization and recovery, and avoid repeating the mistakes of vicious price competition causing losses in the whole industry.
