2025, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda formally signed a peace agreement with a view to ending the 30-year conflict. If the signing of the peace agreement enables the two countries to resolve long-term border frictions, the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) may boost economic construction and bring more cement demand to the region.
The armed conflict between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC
) and Rwanda began with the Rwandan genocide in 1994. In the following decades, the border situation between the two countries continued to be turbulent, and more than 100 armed groups competed for territory in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As a result, the transportation of materials in the region is not smooth, the stability of industrial enterprises is insufficient, and the long-term economic development is hindered. In early
2022, the M23 armed group clashed with the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC) in North Kivu Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the border situation deteriorated again. Since then, the conflict has escalated, with the M23 armed group occupying Goma, the capital of North Kivu Province, in January 2025, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) declaring that it had severed diplomatic relations with Rwanda. In June 2025, the United States and other parties intervened in mediation, and the foreign ministers of the two countries signed a peace agreement, but it did not actually end the regional conflict. In October 2025, the presidents of the two countries signed a peace agreement again in Washington, USA, with a view to achieving a permanent ceasefire in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and implementing a regional economic integration plan to unleash the development potential of the Great Lakes region.
Armed conflicts mainly affect the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Haut-Uélé and the surrounding provinces of Tanganyika in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Figure 1: Scope
of main impacts of armed conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Armed conflicts suppress local cement consumption
in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo The five provinces have a population of more than 25 million people, accounting for about a quarter of the country's total population. According to the data disclosed by Western Cement, the total domestic demand for cement in Congo (DRC) will reach 3.78 million tons in 2024, and the per capita demand for cement will be about 37 kg. According to the per capita cement demand in Congo (Kinshasa), theoretically, the total cement demand in the five eastern provinces can reach about 900,000 to 1,000,000 tons/year.
However, due to the continuous armed conflict, the actual cement consumption in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is significantly lower than theoretical level.
Figure 2: There is only one integrated cement
plant in the western Great Lakes Cement Plant in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Currently, there is only one integrated cement plant in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo. It belongs to Western Cement and has a clinker production line with a daily output of 3500 tons, with a cement production capacity of 1.5 million tons. According to the data disclosed by Western Cement, since it was put into operation at the end of 2022, its sales of cement products in eastern Congo (DRC) and surrounding areas have shown an overall upward trend. From 2024 to 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the Western Cement Great Lakes Plant will be about 4-6%.
Figure 3: Since 2023, the sales volume of Western Cement in the Pan-Great Lakes Region has gradually increased (Unit: 10,000 tons,%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
From the perspective of sales, In the first half of 2025, the sales volume of cement and clinker of the Western Cement Great Lakes Plant in the Pan-Great Lakes region (including the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi and the western part of Tanzania) was about 440,000 tons. Among them, 199000 tons of cement were sold by the grinding station of Western Cement in Rwanda, and about 221000 tons of cement products were sold in the eastern part of Congo (DRC).
Considering the possible supply in the surrounding areas, the upper limit of actual cement consumption in the five eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is estimated to be about 600,000-700,000 tons, which is obviously lower than theoretical consumption, and it is difficult for the production line of the Western Cement Great Lakes Plant to further effectively improve the capacity utilization rate.
If the conflict subsides, it will bring construction needs, but whether the peace agreement can be implemented remains to be seen
. If the peace agreement reached by the governments of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda can be implemented smoothly, it will bring a lot of housing and infrastructure reconstruction needs to the relevant areas. As the armed conflict subsides, the operational risk of local cement enterprises will gradually decrease, which will help to improve the capacity utilization rate of enterprises and reduce production costs. At the same time, the control of important transportation routes by armed groups has ended, the supply chain of raw materials has stabilized, transportation costs have been greatly reduced, and the profitability of cement enterprises has been gradually improved.
In the medium and long term, the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo is rich in gold, tantalite, tin, tungsten and other mineral resources, which has great potential for economic development. Peace and stability will stimulate the growth of investment in mineral development and bring sustained demand for industrial construction. In addition, the peace agreement also mentions the implementation of regional economic integration plans, or will bring a large number of new infrastructure construction needs, leading to sustained growth in cement consumption.
However, from a realistic point of view, after the signing of the peace agreement, the armed conflict on the border between the two countries has not actually stopped. According to the Associated Press on December 9, 2025, another explosion occurred in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), causing dozens of casualties, and the implementation of the peace agreement is difficult. Affected by this, the cement industry in eastern Congo (DRC) will continue to face multiple problems such as insufficient demand potential, low production stability and high comprehensive cost.
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