At present, the silicon material market is facing many challenges, although the negotiation and signing of silicon materials have entered a relatively better range. However, the downstream links are still facing the pressure of cost and profit, which is reflected in the declining trend of the signing price.
I. Price Trend and Transaction
of Silicon Materials Last week, the average transaction price of N-type silicon materials was RMB68,800/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.23%; the average transaction price of monocrystalline dense materials was RMB62,500/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.57% and a year-on-year decrease of 79.71%. Overall, the price of silicon materials fell slightly again.
Figure: Price trend
of monocrystalline dense materials Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
II. Orders and attitudes
of enterprises Last week, the number of new orders signed by enterprises was relatively small, and some enterprises have begun to negotiate orders for December. However, the number of trading enterprises of n-type silicon materials and p-type silicon materials is relatively small, and the overall order size is relatively small. Since the last quotation, the price of high-priced orders in the early stage has been adjusted, while the price of N-type materials in the new orders is basically concentrated below 70000 yuan/ton. At present, downstream enterprises are still cautious about signing bills, and the upstream and downstream game continues, so silicon manufacturers have to make price concessions.
3. Supply chain pressure and profit margin
According to the current price of silicon materials and the average cost of the industry, silicon material manufacturers still have a profit margin of about 5-10%. However, as the price of silicon materials enters the downward range, the profit margin of silicon material manufacturers may face challenges. In the upstream and downstream game, manufacturers have to make price concessions in order to maintain profit margins.
4. Downstream demand and industry trend
The gradual increase in the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises has a positive impact on the silicon material market, resulting in a slight rebound in the demand for silicon materials. However, due to the weak terminal demand, especially the new installed capacity of solar energy has shown a downward trend for three consecutive months, the situation of structural oversupply of silicon materials still exists. The upstream and downstream game of silicon material market is still continuing, and silicon material manufacturers have to make price concessions.
5. Supply
of polysilicon As of last week, there were 17 domestic polysilicon production enterprises, three of which were undergoing maintenance, which had little impact on production. In November, the supply of polysilicon continued to rise steadily, and the production forecast remained at 145 thousand tons. Meanwhile, according to customs data, polysilicon imports in October were 3323.7 tons, down 28.26% from the previous month and 65.22% from the previous year. This indicates that the price of polysilicon may continue to fall slightly in the short term.
To sum up, the silicon material market is currently facing many challenges, and the structural oversupply and weak terminal demand are the main factors affecting the market. While maintaining profit margins in the upstream and downstream game, silicon manufacturers need to pay attention to terminal demand in order to more accurately predict market trends.
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