this year, the overall downward trend of the domestic cement market is obvious. From the end of April to the beginning of May, a price war broke out in many places in China. Compared with the beginning of January, cement prices in only four of the 31 provinces rose at the end of May, and cement prices in many regions fell below 200 yuan/ton. Regionally, the market along the Yangtze River is the hardest hit area of price competition.
In recent years, the problem of overcapacity in the cement industry has become increasingly serious, and the competition in the industry has continued to intensify. Faced with the plight of the industry, the industry proposed to adhere to the staggered peak production to promote rational capacity, and in my opinion, the cement industry has actually passed the best window period of "rational capacity". In order to promote "rational capacity removal" in the
cement industry, we should prepare for the high platform period of the industry from 2017 to 2022, when the industry profits are at a high level, we should reserve the withdrawal fund of production capacity according to the cement sales volume of each enterprise, according to the principle of more production and less production, so as to integrate and shut down the backward production capacity in the downward period of the market. This is a good policy.
However, when making money, most enterprises only take into account the immediate interests. Nowadays, when demand continues to decline and everyone shouts "live" in unison, it is unrealistic to call for rational capacity removal . In fact, in the face of the problem of survival, there has never been rationality, from ancient times to the present, from Dynasties to individuals, the same is true of industries and enterprises.
Overcapacity is becoming increasingly serious, and a large number of cement enterprises will inevitably be eliminated
. Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that the national cement output in the first quarter was 331 million tons, down 1.4% from the same period last year, and continued to decline. In addition, according to the forecast of the industry, the domestic demand for cement will be reduced to about 1 billion tons in ten years (the corresponding demand for clinker is about 650-700 million tons).
At present, the domestic cement clinker production capacity is close to 1.8 billion tons, and the cement production capacity is more than 3.5 billion tons. If we do not take effective measures to reduce production capacity, the utilization rate of clinker production capacity will be as low as 35-40%. Assuming that 75% of the capacity utilization rate is relatively reasonable, only 850-900 million tons of clinker production capacity will be needed in the next few years, which means that more than half of the current cement clinker production capacity needs to be shut down .
Capacity has been imminent, in the face of survival or death, enterprises will be like people, the last struggle, it is almost impossible to maintain rationality. In addition, it is even more difficult for superior enterprises to use limited funds to acquire and shut down backward enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises (most of the large domestic cement enterprises are state-owned enterprises), which may also touch on the loss of state-owned assets, but without the lead of large cement enterprises. It is even more difficult to shut down production capacity through capital acquisition. In the
near future, the scale of domestic cement production capacity can not continue to maintain the current situation, so at present and even in the next period of time, the cement industry is facing a core issue of "who dies first, not live together" , which is the current industry. Have to face up to the cruel situation.
Let off-peak production return to its essence and let the market speak
fully. Off-peak production is essentially a means to prevent the superposition of pollutants and provention and control air pollution. Later, for well-known reasons, it has essentially evolved into one of the ways to limit the production capacity of the cement industry and stabilize the market situation. In terms of scope, from Xinjiang to 15 provinces in the north and then to the whole country; in terms of time, from winter heating season to holidays, summer peak power consumption to full coverage throughout the year, finally forming today's normal peak staggering production.
It is undeniable that peak-shifting production has played an important role in avoiding the superimposed emission of pollutants and improving air quality, and has also greatly improved the supply and demand situation of the cement industry, which has played an important role in making profits for the cement industry in the past high demand plateau period.
However, the use of off-peak production to stabilize the market situation needs to be based on a relatively good and stable demand for cement . Once the demand for cement declines substantially, the cost caused by kiln shutdown will continue to increase, the effect of off-peak production will be greatly reduced, and the implementation will become more and more difficult.
For this reason, we can see that there are many meetings related to peak staggering production in various provinces, but the implementation is not satisfactory, and there are always small moves of enterprises.
The author believes that in the current situation of weakening the effect of peak staggering production and increasing the difficulty of implementation, peak staggering production should be allowed to return to its essence , except for some areas where peak staggering production is appropriate to prevent air pollution, peak staggering production in other situations should be avoided. Maximize the role of market competition, so that superior enterprises become the dominant industry.
Emphasizing "rationality" underestimates human nature and ignores the law
, whether it is rational competition or rational capacity removal, it is only an idealized state, underestimating human nature and ignoring the law. In the face of life and death, everyone has his own ideas, which is the so-called "sharing happiness and suffering" .
Competition is the basic state of market economy, elimination and screening is the law of nature, why dinosaurs will be extinct, because they can not adapt to changes in the environment, the same cement enterprises in the competition can not adapt to changes in the environment, should also be eliminated.
However, for a long time, the cement industry has done a lot of things against the law, which eventually led to the current predicament. If it continues, it will be difficult for the industry to get out of the predicament, and eventually good enterprises will be dragged down. It is time for the cement industry to let the market speak.
浙公网安备33010802003254号