"Deploy 100 GW of solar energy to space every year"! At the
end of the year and the beginning of the year, Musk's bold idea ignited the long-suppressed enthusiasm of the photovoltaic industry, and then Li Xiande, Gao Jifan and other big men publicly stood in line, and space photovoltaic became the boiling point of the photovoltaic industry in 2026.
So what exactly is space photovoltaic?
In the extreme environment of space, the energy density of traditional chemical batteries is low and it is difficult to supplement energy independently. The cost of nuclear energy system is high, the approval is complicated and there are potential safety hazards. Solar power generation has become the first choice for space energy supply by virtue of its long-term, stable and lightweight power supply advantages. Moreover, there is no atmospheric shelter, no day and night and weather changes in space, photovoltaic panels can receive all-weather light, efficiently convert solar energy into electricity, and supply energy for space equipment.
Space photovoltaics are not new. In 1958, the "Pioneer 1" satellite of the United States carried solar arrays into space, opening the prelude to the application of photovoltaic space. Over the past few decades, gallium arsenide (GaAs) solar cells have been the main force of space photovoltaics, with conversion efficiency of 30% -33%, good radiation resistance and temperature difference resistance. However, in the context of the explosion of the commercial aerospace industry in 2026, its high cost of more than 1000 yuan per watt has become a fatal shortcoming. As a result, crystalline silicon and perovskite batteries with breakthroughs in cost and efficiency have entered the space field, and a new generation of space photovoltaics has ushered in an opportunity for development.
Why are p-type HJT batteries and perovskite batteries out of the circle? With the explosion of
space photovoltaics, the previously unknown p-type HJT battery is seen as the most likely alternative to gallium arsenide batteries in the short term. Its mass production cost is 60-70 yuan/watt, low temperature technology makes it thinner and lighter, excellent anti-radiation performance, can basically meet the 5-10 years service needs of earth orbit satellites, is a short-term "flat replacement". SpaceX has tested the application of P-type HJT batteries on Starlink satellites, and Musk's team is also investigating China's HJT battery head manufacturers and related equipment companies to speed up the landing of their own production lines. The theoretical efficiency of perovskite battery is 40%, which is lighter, thinner, flexible and simple in preparation process. It can adapt to different space equipment, and the problem of insufficient ground stability can be solved in space. Perovskite and HJT tandem batteries , which can meet the needs of large-scale and high-power satellite deployment, are regarded as the ultimate solution in the future. When will
affordable space photovoltaic become a reality?
Affordable space photovoltaic landing needs to cross the threshold of multiple technologies and industrialization, and it is difficult to completely replace gallium arsenide batteries in the short term. At present, the layout of more than 20 photovoltaic enterprises in China is mostly in the stage of research and development or small-scale testing. The most potential p-type HJT battery is in the growth period of space application as a whole, and it needs a long period of technical verification and industrial cultivation in terms of efficiency stability.
The industry expects that the large-scale application of HJT batteries in low-orbit short-life satellites is expected to be realized by 2030, and the task of replacing GaAs batteries to cover high-orbit satellites will take 2030. 2028-2030 is the key window period for affordable space photovoltaic to break through the technical bottleneck and achieve commercial landing.
On the one hand, the huge demand for commercial aerospace, on the other hand , the accelerated breakthrough of technology iteration , do you think space photovoltaic will break through the bottleneck ahead of time? Talk about your predictions in the comments section!
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