On December 28, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of Riding Federation Branch, wrote that the domestic demand for new energy lithium batteries in early 2026 would be significantly lower than that in the fourth quarter. Battery manufacturers are expected to cut production and take vacations in response to demand fluctuations.
The first reason is that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles at the beginning of 2026 is adjusted by the vehicle purchase tax policy, and the sales volume at the beginning of the year is at least 30% lower than that in the fourth quarter. The second reason is that the new energy commercial vehicles are bound to face a sharp decline at the beginning of the year after the rush for subsidies and tax exemption at the end of the year.
Thirdly, the export of new energy passenger cars will still be better in early 2026, but there will be little demand for batteries from independent battery suppliers.
Fourth, the demand for energy storage in the United States has little effect on domestic battery exports. In 2025, the export of batteries to the United States declined sharply, and the energy storage demand of AI in the United States had little pull on the domestic market.
Fifthly, the bidding price of domestic energy storage is significantly lower than 300 yuan, and the demand for price increase per degree is bound to be weak, while vehicle batteries can not share the cost of energy storage losses.
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