(1) Development of
global polysilicon industry in 2024 By the end of 2024, 3.249 million tons of production capacity had been put into operation in the world . From the perspective of production capacity with production conditions, it reached 3.394 million tons , an increase of 38.1% over the same period last year. The global output of polysilicon is about 1.957 million tons , an increase of 21.7% over the same period last year, of which the output of electronic grade polysilicon is about 39,000 tons . Solar grade bulk silicon is about 1.632 million tons and granular silicon is about 286,000 tons , accounting for 2.0%, 83.4% and 14.6% of the total global polysilicon production, respectively.
In 2024, the total production capacity of the top ten polysilicon enterprises in the world reached 2.791 million tons per year , accounting for 82.23% of the total global production capacity. The total output of the top ten polysilicon enterprises in the world was about 1,701,000 tons, accounting for 86.92% of the global total output, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. In 2024, the world's top five polysilicon enterprises are all concentrated in China, with a total output of 1.3758 million tons, accounting for 70.3% of the global total output, with a high concentration of output.
(2) Development
of China's polysilicon industry In 2024, there were 21 polysilicon enterprises in China with production conditions, and the production capacity with production conditions reached 3.231 million tons per year, an increase of 40.5% over the same period last year. The increase in production capacity mainly comes from the production of new production lines such as Tongwei, Xiexin, Daqo, Dongfang Hope and Hesheng.
Although polysilicon enterprises still have announced plans for new production capacity, considering the dual risks of severe market situation and uncertain policy environment in 2025, there are still variables in the production capacity that can be built by the end of 2025. It is estimated that the demand for polysilicon in 2025 will be about 1.6 million tons to 1.8 million tons, which can match the demand for 700 GW photovoltaic , even if there is no new capacity in 2025, judging from the stock scale of 3.231 million tons per year in 2024. In 2025, there is still a serious risk of overcapacity and overheated investment in the market. In terms of
imports, in 2024, China's imports of solar-grade polysilicon (hereinafter referred to as "polysilicon") amounted to about 721 million US dollars, down 49.7% from the same period last year. With the release of domestic polysilicon production capacity, the demand for polysilicon imports has been declining, with imports of about 37800 tons in 2024, down 33.7% from the same period last year. Due to the increase of domestic polysilicon supply, the proportion of imported polysilicon in domestic polysilicon consumption has gradually declined. In 2024, imported polysilicon accounted for about 2% of domestic consumption. In the past decade, the dependence of polysilicon on imports has continued to decrease.
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