重庆2013年上半年水泥市场分析及下半年预测

2013-10-17 08:50:55

2013年上半年,重庆市水泥全行业盈利1.42亿元(含部分水泥企业产业链的利润),同比增长160.17%(去年同期为-2.36亿元),利润率1.72%,低于全国利润率3.48个百分点。

  一、宏观经济——稳中有进

  2013年上半年重庆经济与全国经济形势一样,增速放缓。

  二、水泥产能——释放有序

  2009年、2010年和2011年重庆市水泥产能井喷式增长,且集中释放,市场过度竞争,致使2012年重庆水泥行业亏损冠全国;经过2011、2012年市场恶战,不少企业认为谁也杀不死谁已成定局,为有序释放产能奠定了基础。2013年6月底,水泥产能7300万吨(不含粉磨站1000万吨),其中,新型干法6960万吨,占总产能的95.3%;1-6月水泥产量为2769万吨(P.O 42.5与P.C32.5比例为6:4),同比增长12.2%,窑运转率75%左右;其中,新型干法2346万吨,同比增长12.4%,占水泥总产量97.5%(含粉磨站产量);机立窑产量67万吨,占总产量的2.5%;散装水泥1048万吨,同比增长13.9%。

  三、本地销量——产大于销

  根据协会调研:水泥实际消费量约2300万吨,比2012年上半年约有增长。其中,输出市外水泥约450万吨,输入市内水泥约150万吨,净输出水泥约300万吨。

  四、水泥价格——差异明显

   根据协会调研: 重庆市P.C 32.5水泥均价为296元/吨,P.O 42.5水泥均价为301元/吨。水泥价格呈现前高后低和区域差异大的走势。

  4月P.C 32.5水泥出厂价格比2月下降20元/吨,全市出厂均价为301元/吨;6月比4月又下降近30元/吨,出厂均价为272元/吨。从1月到6月水泥价格下降了15.8%,个别水泥企业P.O 42.5水泥出厂价触底210元/吨。

  重庆市P.O 42.5水泥与P.C 32.5水泥价差只有5元/吨左右;但南翼生态保护发展区P.O 42.5水泥与P.C 32.5水泥价差维持在15元/吨左右。

  五、行业效益——有点微利

  上半年重庆市水泥全行业盈利1.42亿元(含部分水泥企业产业链的利润),同比增长160.17%(去年同期为-2.36亿元),利润率1.72%,低于全国利润率3.48个百分点;有39.74%的水泥企业(31户)出现了亏损,亏损额3.16亿元,同比减少33.61%。

  1、从企业规模分析看——中型水泥企业好于大型水泥企业

  具有区位布局好、成本低和运距短等优势的10户中型水泥企业都是盈利的;在重庆市具有相当影响力的大集团中,盈利企业只有4家。

  2、从区域布局分析看——南翼好于北翼;北翼好于都市功能核心区和都市功能拓展区;都市功能核心区和都市功能拓展区好于城市发展新区。

  南翼生态保护发展区(即原渝东南翼6区县):企业布局相对合理,且与贵州、湖南接壤,市场范围大,运输半径合理,上半年水泥出厂价格一直维持在300元/吨以上,水泥品种价差合理,上半年南翼利润总额为拉高了全市水泥价格和利润率;

  北翼生态涵养发展区(即原渝东北翼11区县):该区域总产能大,但依托长江运输优势,加之有序释放产能,故在该区域水泥价格相对平稳,大部分企业都有盈利;

  都市功能核心区和都市功能拓展区(即原主城9区):该区域是重庆水泥消费主市场,区内水泥企业市场优势明显,且品牌美誉度高,运输成本低。故水泥出厂价格波动不大,且部分水泥企业产业链发展好,优势进一步强化。虽然该区域市场竞争非常激烈,但该区域水泥企业仍保持着较好盈利水平;

  城市发展新区(即原一小时经济圈内除主城9区以外的12个区县):该区域水泥产能特别大,产品运输到消费区距离较远,出厂价格普遍偏低。特别是合川地区水泥企业扎堆布局,出厂价格长期处于全市洼地。到6月,合川地区P.C 32.5出厂均价为226元/吨,同比下降13.4%(每吨下降35元),P.O 42.5出厂均价为233元/吨,同比下降17.38%(每吨下降49元),是全市水泥市场竞争最为激烈的地区。这该区域水泥企业亏多盈少,是重庆亏损量、亏损额最为严重的地区。

  3、行业有点微利成因分析

  1)从上游产品分析看

  上半年水泥企业用煤价格下降了50元/吨左右,降幅为7.88%;与去年同期相比,均价同比下降140元/吨左右,降幅达到18.6%。煤炭成本占水泥生产成本的40%左右,煤价回落降低了企业生产成本,为行业有点微利奠定了基础。

  2)从宏观经济环境分析看

  ①投资增幅回落1.8个百分点,致使水泥需求不旺;

  ②投资结构调整。工业投资占总投资的近1/3,固定资产投资与水泥消费量呈下滑趋势;

  3)从行业情况分析看

   ①产能过剩,过度竞争;

   ②少数大企业严重开工不足,推高了固定生产成本;

   ③约15%的水泥产量低价出厂,长距离运市外抢占市场;

   ④市外少数企业低价入市,抢占市场,本地企业难于提价销售;

   ⑤优质未优价。长期以来,P.O 42.5和P.C 32.5两个品种价差太小;

   综上所述:全行业呈现微利同样值得庆贺。

   六、节能减排——继续建功

   水泥工业余热发电量为55666.19万kWh,节约标煤6.84万吨,分别减少CO2、SO2、NOx排放为53.3万吨、1.7万吨和0.8万吨,减排碳粉尘1.5万吨;同时,资源综合利用各种废弃物411.9万吨吨,其中水泥窑协同处置城市生活污水厂污泥9.27万吨。

   七、全年预测——谨慎乐观

   1、2013年重庆市经济整体稳中有进,已成大趋势。预测全年固定资产投资将达到11000亿元,其中下半年完成6600亿元,投资将起关键作用(城市轨道交通、铁路、高速公路、城镇化、大型水利设施等仍是水泥需求的亮点),投资额度超过上半年,水泥刚性需求有所回升。

   2、2013年行业预测:水泥产能约7450万吨,水泥产量约5800万吨,本市消费量约5000万吨。

   3、行业扭亏增盈的建议:传统的水泥市场将由淡季转向旺季,产量和消费量双升成可能,但面对过剩的产能,是否呈现量价齐升的局面,关键在强化节能减排,强化行业自律认识,共同维护市场。

   国民经济(GDP)要保持在合理区间运行(大于7%,小于8%),水泥企业出厂价格和到岸价也应有合理的区间,协会在调研的基础上建议:P.O 42.5水泥出厂价或到岸价都不应低于当地C30混凝土销售价格为宜。同企业P.O 42.5和P.C 32.5水泥出厂价差不小于20元/吨为宜。

   只有这样,2013年,全行业扭亏增盈才有希望。

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