错峰生产效果为何越来越弱!

2023-05-29 09:24:26

更需要思考的是,在错峰生产之外,水泥行业是否能找到更有效的化解产能过剩的路径和方法,毕竟归根到底,超产问题愈演愈烈的背后,错峰生产常态化也是重要推手。

2022年遭遇“寒冬”的水泥行业,至今没有看到明显复苏的迹象。

需求方面,统计局数据显示,2023年1-4月水泥产量为58429万吨,同比增长2.5%,4月水泥产量19392万吨,同比增长1.4%,环比下降5.8%,4月需求大幅弱于市场预期。

水泥大数据研究院负责人、资深分析师郑建辉指出,水泥行业需求平台期三年后大概率会被打破,东北地区水泥需求较高位已经萎缩47%,华北地区水泥需求较高位已经萎缩30%,西北地区已经萎缩26%,西南地区已经萎缩23%。

价格方面,水泥大数据研究院数据显示,2023年1-4月全国水泥均价同比下降19.23%。而从中国水泥网发布的全国水泥价格周K线图及指数走势中也可看出,2023年开年以来,除了3月份水泥价格有小幅上升以外,基本处于“跌跌不休”的状态。

价需双弱的大环境下,水泥企业的日子并不好过。如,天山股份一季度净利润亏损12.31亿元,海螺水泥一季度净利润同比下降48.2%,冀东水泥一季度净利润亏损7.92亿元,华新水泥一季度净利润同比下降63.09%……

“加大错峰生产力度,坚持水泥错峰生产常态化”、“延长错峰生产时间”、“要全国一盘棋,刚性错峰”成了当下诸多水泥企业缓解困境的心声。但现实情况是,错峰生产和行业协同的效果不断在减弱!除了需求大幅下滑的客观因素以外,超产严重是重要原因。

为什么现在水泥行业超产愈发严重?

“水泥行业超产现象普遍,其形成原因很复杂。”一长期关注水泥行业发展的资深人士表示,简单分析的话,主要原因有:

1

前些年水泥企业集体错峰停限产后,供给得到一定控制,加之水泥需求相对旺盛,水泥企业的利润也节节攀升。

因此很多水泥企业错峰停窑期间,力保粉磨照常,以占有更高的市场份额和增加销售收入,由此采取的措施无外乎一是通过提产改造,提升窑可运转时间内的产量;二是扩大熟料储存。

而随着错峰生产常态化且停产天数不断“加码”后,在有限的时间内加大“火力”输出成为企业提升效益的重要手段,这又进一步刺激了企业提产改造积极性。

2

在新型干法水泥工艺不断完善,管理成熟之下,超常发挥窑的潜力轻而易举。

在执行新(改、扩)建项目实施产能置换条件下,为了防止置换中发生弄虚作假,有关政策中规定了(在产能置换中)设计产能要与实际产能进行比对,取小者。实际产能指按窑(外)径推算的产能。

随着这一政策的执行,窑径与产能形成了“铁定”对应关系。新建生产线窑径按产能置换量精确折算到毫米级个位数。反正,窑径一定,产能规模“铁定”。

随之环评、能耗、生产许可都依据“铁定”的产能展开。窑偏长一点,则比较有利于生产线超产。

3

在新建项目须实施产能置换中,相当部分是在不扩大产能的技改、搬迁可不制定产能置换方案之列,是以改造升级“拆二为一”及退城入园之类的改扩建可不制订产能置换方案进行的,即1:1,这类1:1生产线改造升级后,其超产能力不可小觑。

4

在技术装备不断进步的背景下,水泥企业近些年积累了一定资金,鉴于水泥行业发展的周期性,为应对未来几乎必然出现的市场下行以及竞争环境恶化,行业内掀起了一波通过提产改造降低单位能耗的升级浪潮。

超产现象带来的其中一个结果就是错峰生产效果日益减弱。

以一条核定产能5000t/d的生产线为例,假设一年停产100天(全年按照365天计),不超产的情况下一年产量为132.5万吨。如果这条生产线超产至日产量7000吨,年产量达到132.5万吨仅需190天左右,全年至少需要停产175天。

这仅仅是一条生产线的情况,如果区域内水泥企业的超产现象十分普遍,即便不断延长区域内的错峰生产时间,也难以达到理想的“有效控制供给”的效果。

以河南为例,当地水泥企业近年来有超过20条生产线实施提产改造,实际产能不断增加,即便当前错峰生产执行力度优于往年,依然难以稳定市场态势。

当地企业直言,“即便产能排名前两名的中联同力与天瑞水泥(合计产能占比达到55%)全年停产,其余水泥厂也能满足全省水泥需求”,产能过剩之严峻可想而知,而提产改造无疑在其中扮演了推波助澜的作用。

在笔者看来,错峰生产常态化的确是缓解当前行业困局的有效措施之一,但在不断延长错峰生产天数之际,也要重视超产带来的长期影响。

当然,更需要思考的是,在错峰生产之外,水泥行业是否能找到更有效的化解产能过剩的路径和方法,毕竟归根到底,超产问题愈演愈烈的背后,错峰生产常态化也是重要推手。

关注:中国水泥网将于2023年7月6-7日,在重庆举行“2023中国水泥节能与新能源发展大会”,从节能改造,光伏、储能等技术应用,绿电、替代燃料替代传统能源转型等方面出发,共同探讨水泥行业节能降耗新途径。

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Correlation

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2025-04-25 16:32:04

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2025-03-21 17:02:11

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2025-03-07 16:16:56

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2025-03-04 09:42:51

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2025-02-28 16:20:08

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2025-02-25 10:39:25

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2025-02-14 17:06:06

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Specifically, after the completion of the construction in the northern region, the enterprise entered the winter heating season to stagger the peak, and the kiln was shut down for a long time; the workers in the southern region returned home one after another, the shipment of the enterprise decreased, and the intensity of staggering the peak increased.

2025-02-13 09:43:42

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2025-01-17 17:37:03

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Northwest China is weak, the demand in Guanzhong of Shaanxi has reached the peak, but the enterprises have stabilized the price to support the market, and the pressure of dark drop is looming; the price depression in Ningxia continues to impact the market in Gansu and Shaanxi; the situation of maintaining stability in Xinjiang is remarkable.