错峰生产效果为何越来越弱!

2023-05-29 09:24:26

更需要思考的是,在错峰生产之外,水泥行业是否能找到更有效的化解产能过剩的路径和方法,毕竟归根到底,超产问题愈演愈烈的背后,错峰生产常态化也是重要推手。

2022年遭遇“寒冬”的水泥行业,至今没有看到明显复苏的迹象。

需求方面,统计局数据显示,2023年1-4月水泥产量为58429万吨,同比增长2.5%,4月水泥产量19392万吨,同比增长1.4%,环比下降5.8%,4月需求大幅弱于市场预期。

水泥大数据研究院负责人、资深分析师郑建辉指出,水泥行业需求平台期三年后大概率会被打破,东北地区水泥需求较高位已经萎缩47%,华北地区水泥需求较高位已经萎缩30%,西北地区已经萎缩26%,西南地区已经萎缩23%。

价格方面,水泥大数据研究院数据显示,2023年1-4月全国水泥均价同比下降19.23%。而从中国水泥网发布的全国水泥价格周K线图及指数走势中也可看出,2023年开年以来,除了3月份水泥价格有小幅上升以外,基本处于“跌跌不休”的状态。

价需双弱的大环境下,水泥企业的日子并不好过。如,天山股份一季度净利润亏损12.31亿元,海螺水泥一季度净利润同比下降48.2%,冀东水泥一季度净利润亏损7.92亿元,华新水泥一季度净利润同比下降63.09%……

“加大错峰生产力度,坚持水泥错峰生产常态化”、“延长错峰生产时间”、“要全国一盘棋,刚性错峰”成了当下诸多水泥企业缓解困境的心声。但现实情况是,错峰生产和行业协同的效果不断在减弱!除了需求大幅下滑的客观因素以外,超产严重是重要原因。

为什么现在水泥行业超产愈发严重?

“水泥行业超产现象普遍,其形成原因很复杂。”一长期关注水泥行业发展的资深人士表示,简单分析的话,主要原因有:

1

前些年水泥企业集体错峰停限产后,供给得到一定控制,加之水泥需求相对旺盛,水泥企业的利润也节节攀升。

因此很多水泥企业错峰停窑期间,力保粉磨照常,以占有更高的市场份额和增加销售收入,由此采取的措施无外乎一是通过提产改造,提升窑可运转时间内的产量;二是扩大熟料储存。

而随着错峰生产常态化且停产天数不断“加码”后,在有限的时间内加大“火力”输出成为企业提升效益的重要手段,这又进一步刺激了企业提产改造积极性。

2

在新型干法水泥工艺不断完善,管理成熟之下,超常发挥窑的潜力轻而易举。

在执行新(改、扩)建项目实施产能置换条件下,为了防止置换中发生弄虚作假,有关政策中规定了(在产能置换中)设计产能要与实际产能进行比对,取小者。实际产能指按窑(外)径推算的产能。

随着这一政策的执行,窑径与产能形成了“铁定”对应关系。新建生产线窑径按产能置换量精确折算到毫米级个位数。反正,窑径一定,产能规模“铁定”。

随之环评、能耗、生产许可都依据“铁定”的产能展开。窑偏长一点,则比较有利于生产线超产。

3

在新建项目须实施产能置换中,相当部分是在不扩大产能的技改、搬迁可不制定产能置换方案之列,是以改造升级“拆二为一”及退城入园之类的改扩建可不制订产能置换方案进行的,即1:1,这类1:1生产线改造升级后,其超产能力不可小觑。

4

在技术装备不断进步的背景下,水泥企业近些年积累了一定资金,鉴于水泥行业发展的周期性,为应对未来几乎必然出现的市场下行以及竞争环境恶化,行业内掀起了一波通过提产改造降低单位能耗的升级浪潮。

超产现象带来的其中一个结果就是错峰生产效果日益减弱。

以一条核定产能5000t/d的生产线为例,假设一年停产100天(全年按照365天计),不超产的情况下一年产量为132.5万吨。如果这条生产线超产至日产量7000吨,年产量达到132.5万吨仅需190天左右,全年至少需要停产175天。

这仅仅是一条生产线的情况,如果区域内水泥企业的超产现象十分普遍,即便不断延长区域内的错峰生产时间,也难以达到理想的“有效控制供给”的效果。

以河南为例,当地水泥企业近年来有超过20条生产线实施提产改造,实际产能不断增加,即便当前错峰生产执行力度优于往年,依然难以稳定市场态势。

当地企业直言,“即便产能排名前两名的中联同力与天瑞水泥(合计产能占比达到55%)全年停产,其余水泥厂也能满足全省水泥需求”,产能过剩之严峻可想而知,而提产改造无疑在其中扮演了推波助澜的作用。

在笔者看来,错峰生产常态化的确是缓解当前行业困局的有效措施之一,但在不断延长错峰生产天数之际,也要重视超产带来的长期影响。

当然,更需要思考的是,在错峰生产之外,水泥行业是否能找到更有效的化解产能过剩的路径和方法,毕竟归根到底,超产问题愈演愈烈的背后,错峰生产常态化也是重要推手。

关注:中国水泥网将于2023年7月6-7日,在重庆举行“2023中国水泥节能与新能源发展大会”,从节能改造,光伏、储能等技术应用,绿电、替代燃料替代传统能源转型等方面出发,共同探讨水泥行业节能降耗新途径。

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Correlation

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the Yangtze River Delta region in East China is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 20-30 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the implementation is to be tracked. The implementation in Shandong is not good enough, and some of them have fallen back to the level before the rise.

2025-03-31 14:52:47

According to the document of Guangdong Cement Industry Association, in 2025, all clinker production lines in Guangdong Province are planned to stop kilns for 95 days per kiln, which will be implemented in two stages.

2025-03-21 17:02:11

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the implementation of cement price promotion in North China is slow. Shanxi Province, supported by the policy of extending the peak staggering and stopping kilns to the end of the month, has generally pushed up 50 yuan/ton in central and northern Shanxi, but the recovery of market demand is fatigue, the current inventory is maintained at about 60%, and the actual transaction is still mainly wait-and-see.

2025-03-14 18:19:37

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, this week, major enterprises in the central and southern regions of Guangxi notified an increase in cement prices by 30 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong market is running steadily and strongly. This week, cement prices in the two lakes region are mainly stable temporarily, and enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices.

2025-03-14 17:37:56

Wang Aizhen, president of Henan Building Materials Industry Association, introduced the situation of Henan cement industry. Wang Aizhen said that Henan is located in the Central Plains, with serious overcapacity. At present, there are 62 clinker production lines, with a design capacity of 92 million tons and an actual capacity of 115-120 million tons. At the peak of cement demand, the output reached 169 million tons, but after 82 million tons last year, the clinker was only 50 million tons, and the utilization rate of clinker production capacity was 43%.

2025-03-13 17:38:36

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the cement market in southwest China is mixed. This week, the price of cement in Guizhou is basically stable, pushing up the price of cement by 60 yuan/ton in the early stage, but most enterprises have not yet implemented the rise, coupled with the dark drop in the transaction price of enterprises in the early stage, the overall implementation is not good.

2025-03-07 17:46:36

According to the market data of China Cement Network, the cement market in Northeast China is gradually recovering.

2025-03-07 16:16:56

According to market feedback, the temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has risen recently, construction sites have resumed work one after another, cement market demand has obviously warmed up, and sales have shown a steady upward trend.

2025-03-04 09:42:51

It is expected that the demand side will continue to maintain a downward trend, and the production of new lines will inevitably aggravate the pressure on the operation of the industry. The author appeals that cement enterprises should proceed from the overall situation of the industry and carefully consider putting new clinker production lines on the market!

2025-02-28 16:31:02

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the cement market in southwest China is mixed. Cement prices in Guizhou are mainly stable this week. According to market feedback, the weather in Guizhou has improved, the temperature has risen slightly, and the demand for cement has increased slightly.

2025-02-28 16:20:08

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the market in the Pearl River Delta, western Guangdong and northern Guangdong in central and southern China notified the price of cement to be raised by about 20-40 yuan/ton, while the price in Guangxi remained stable. Hunan Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan and other places began to push up the price of cement by about 10-20 yuan/ton, while the price of cement in eastern Hubei went down slightly.

2025-02-28 16:16:39

On the 25th, leading enterprises in Kunming, Yuxi and Qujing notified an increase in cement prices by 50 yuan/ton.

2025-02-25 10:39:25

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in the main city of Chongqing and the west of Chongqing in the southwest region has recovered by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; the cement market in the southwest region is weak.

2025-02-14 17:21:13

Around the Spring Festival of 2025, the new order index of the downstream construction industry and the operation rate of cement mills dropped to a record low, the terminal demand performance was sluggish, and the industry was under great pressure to start. At the same time, cement enterprises control the inventory level at the low level of the same period in previous years by increasing the intensity of peak staggering production, which provides a realistic basis for price stabilization and recovery. At this stage, cement enterprises need to focus on maintaining market competition order, insisting on maintaining price stability, and avoiding further losses in the industry.

2025-02-14 17:06:06

At the same time, with the "involution" vicious competition in the industry in 2023 and 2024, resulting in a continuous sharp decline in efficiency, it is expected that in 2025, the industry's awareness of normalization, self-discipline and peak staggering will be further enhanced, and the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to gradually improve.

2025-02-13 10:05:35

Specifically, after the completion of the construction in the northern region, the enterprise entered the winter heating season to stagger the peak, and the kiln was shut down for a long time; the workers in the southern region returned home one after another, the shipment of the enterprise decreased, and the intensity of staggering the peak increased.

2025-02-13 09:43:42

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the cement market in southwest China is weak. At present, the market demand in Yunnan has been greatly reduced, most of the clinker production lines have been shut down, and the market activities have entered the off-season.

2025-01-17 17:37:03

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the cement market in southwest China is weak. In January, Chongqing continued to implement the policy of peak staggering and kiln shutdown for 25 days, which led to a decline in the inventory of enterprises in the region. Recently, some clinker production lines in Yunnan have been stopped at off-peak, and near the end of the year, leading enterprises intend to stabilize prices, and there is no significant change in the quotation of leading enterprises in many places in the week.

2025-01-03 17:36:40

There is no doubt that the document of double control of production capacity has come into effect. The cement industry in Sichuan Province is in line with the cement industry in Chongqing, working together to stagger the peak. Starting from 2025, the peak staggering production situation will be reported quarterly, and the government departments will carry out supervision.

2024-12-23 11:31:33

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places of Sichuan in the southwest region declined slightly; the price of cement in the main urban area of Chongqing continued to rise by 50 yuan/ton after falling; the price of cement in Kunming area of Yunnan continued to rise by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-12-20 17:56:57

It is said that one of the main reasons for the instability of the market and the decline of cement prices is the large difference in kiln shutdown time, the imbalance of production capacity, the change of market share and the imbalance of business mentality among enterprises. China Cement Network data show that the price trend of Henan in 2024 is consistent with the national trend, but from the performance point of view, it is always lower than national level in the same period.

2024-12-19 16:09:54

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the cement market demand in North China, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei fluctuated, and the price tried to push up; the market in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia was stable and weak.

2024-12-06 17:38:59

According to the data center of China Cement Market, under the influence of the arrival of winter and the decrease of temperature, the construction activities in the Northeast market are reduced and the market demand is low.

2024-12-06 17:33:46

At present, the situation of production exceeding demand in the cement industry will only be more severe, and when standardizing the capacity management of the cement industry, if we ignore the actual supply and demand conditions, production and operation conditions, it may not be a good thing for the next step of enterprise production and operation.

2024-12-03 13:59:05

On October 28, 2024, General Secretary Xi Jinping, presiding over the 17th collective study of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on building a strong cultural country, stressed that we should anchor the strategic goal of building a strong cultural country in 2035, adhere to the fundamental guiding ideology of Marxism, root in the broad and profound Chinese civilization, and conform to the trend of information technology development. The socialist culture with Chinese characteristics in the new era with strong ideological leadership, spiritual cohesion, value appeal and international influence will constantly strengthen the people's spiritual strength and lay a solid cultural foundation for the construction of a strong country and national rejuvenation. China Cement Association Corporate Culture Seminar 2024

2024-11-28 13:24:22

"Flood is not blocked by dredging", peak staggering production has helped the cement industry to create brilliance, but also delayed the window period of the industry to capacity, so that the problem of overcapacity is becoming more and more serious. At present, all kinds of disadvantages accumulated in the industry, in the final analysis, are overcapacity, it is imperative to go to capacity, and the cement industry is also the time for strong men to break their wrists.

2024-11-27 10:25:41

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price in Chongqing and Northeast Chongqing in the southwest region has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; the price in Changdu, the Xizang, has risen by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Sichuan and Yunnan maintain stable operation.

2024-11-15 17:34:42

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44