错峰生产效果为何越来越弱!

2023-05-29 09:24:26

更需要思考的是,在错峰生产之外,水泥行业是否能找到更有效的化解产能过剩的路径和方法,毕竟归根到底,超产问题愈演愈烈的背后,错峰生产常态化也是重要推手。

2022年遭遇“寒冬”的水泥行业,至今没有看到明显复苏的迹象。

需求方面,统计局数据显示,2023年1-4月水泥产量为58429万吨,同比增长2.5%,4月水泥产量19392万吨,同比增长1.4%,环比下降5.8%,4月需求大幅弱于市场预期。

水泥大数据研究院负责人、资深分析师郑建辉指出,水泥行业需求平台期三年后大概率会被打破,东北地区水泥需求较高位已经萎缩47%,华北地区水泥需求较高位已经萎缩30%,西北地区已经萎缩26%,西南地区已经萎缩23%。

价格方面,水泥大数据研究院数据显示,2023年1-4月全国水泥均价同比下降19.23%。而从中国水泥网发布的全国水泥价格周K线图及指数走势中也可看出,2023年开年以来,除了3月份水泥价格有小幅上升以外,基本处于“跌跌不休”的状态。

价需双弱的大环境下,水泥企业的日子并不好过。如,天山股份一季度净利润亏损12.31亿元,海螺水泥一季度净利润同比下降48.2%,冀东水泥一季度净利润亏损7.92亿元,华新水泥一季度净利润同比下降63.09%……

“加大错峰生产力度,坚持水泥错峰生产常态化”、“延长错峰生产时间”、“要全国一盘棋,刚性错峰”成了当下诸多水泥企业缓解困境的心声。但现实情况是,错峰生产和行业协同的效果不断在减弱!除了需求大幅下滑的客观因素以外,超产严重是重要原因。

为什么现在水泥行业超产愈发严重?

“水泥行业超产现象普遍,其形成原因很复杂。”一长期关注水泥行业发展的资深人士表示,简单分析的话,主要原因有:

1

前些年水泥企业集体错峰停限产后,供给得到一定控制,加之水泥需求相对旺盛,水泥企业的利润也节节攀升。

因此很多水泥企业错峰停窑期间,力保粉磨照常,以占有更高的市场份额和增加销售收入,由此采取的措施无外乎一是通过提产改造,提升窑可运转时间内的产量;二是扩大熟料储存。

而随着错峰生产常态化且停产天数不断“加码”后,在有限的时间内加大“火力”输出成为企业提升效益的重要手段,这又进一步刺激了企业提产改造积极性。

2

在新型干法水泥工艺不断完善,管理成熟之下,超常发挥窑的潜力轻而易举。

在执行新(改、扩)建项目实施产能置换条件下,为了防止置换中发生弄虚作假,有关政策中规定了(在产能置换中)设计产能要与实际产能进行比对,取小者。实际产能指按窑(外)径推算的产能。

随着这一政策的执行,窑径与产能形成了“铁定”对应关系。新建生产线窑径按产能置换量精确折算到毫米级个位数。反正,窑径一定,产能规模“铁定”。

随之环评、能耗、生产许可都依据“铁定”的产能展开。窑偏长一点,则比较有利于生产线超产。

3

在新建项目须实施产能置换中,相当部分是在不扩大产能的技改、搬迁可不制定产能置换方案之列,是以改造升级“拆二为一”及退城入园之类的改扩建可不制订产能置换方案进行的,即1:1,这类1:1生产线改造升级后,其超产能力不可小觑。

4

在技术装备不断进步的背景下,水泥企业近些年积累了一定资金,鉴于水泥行业发展的周期性,为应对未来几乎必然出现的市场下行以及竞争环境恶化,行业内掀起了一波通过提产改造降低单位能耗的升级浪潮。

超产现象带来的其中一个结果就是错峰生产效果日益减弱。

以一条核定产能5000t/d的生产线为例,假设一年停产100天(全年按照365天计),不超产的情况下一年产量为132.5万吨。如果这条生产线超产至日产量7000吨,年产量达到132.5万吨仅需190天左右,全年至少需要停产175天。

这仅仅是一条生产线的情况,如果区域内水泥企业的超产现象十分普遍,即便不断延长区域内的错峰生产时间,也难以达到理想的“有效控制供给”的效果。

以河南为例,当地水泥企业近年来有超过20条生产线实施提产改造,实际产能不断增加,即便当前错峰生产执行力度优于往年,依然难以稳定市场态势。

当地企业直言,“即便产能排名前两名的中联同力与天瑞水泥(合计产能占比达到55%)全年停产,其余水泥厂也能满足全省水泥需求”,产能过剩之严峻可想而知,而提产改造无疑在其中扮演了推波助澜的作用。

在笔者看来,错峰生产常态化的确是缓解当前行业困局的有效措施之一,但在不断延长错峰生产天数之际,也要重视超产带来的长期影响。

当然,更需要思考的是,在错峰生产之外,水泥行业是否能找到更有效的化解产能过剩的路径和方法,毕竟归根到底,超产问题愈演愈烈的背后,错峰生产常态化也是重要推手。

关注:中国水泥网将于2023年7月6-7日,在重庆举行“2023中国水泥节能与新能源发展大会”,从节能改造,光伏、储能等技术应用,绿电、替代燃料替代传统能源转型等方面出发,共同探讨水泥行业节能降耗新途径。

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Correlation

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price in Chongqing and Northeast Chongqing in the southwest region has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; the price in Changdu, the Xizang, has risen by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Sichuan and Yunnan maintain stable operation.

2024-11-15 17:34:42

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose steadily this week, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. This week, cement prices in eastern Hubei have gradually fallen back to the level before the last round of rise, and cement prices in many places in Hunan continue to rise.

2024-11-08 17:23:08

The number of off-peak days in Hebei and Shanxi in the third quarter was significantly longer than that in the same period. Although Inner Mongolia has not yet announced the specific time of kiln shutdown in the third quarter of 2023, according to the regional cement production, the time of kiln shutdown in the same period is less than that in the third quarter of 2024. On the whole, the peak staggering time in North China is prolonged.

2024-11-05 09:33:00

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, in the central and southern regions, this week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta and Hainan regions continue to push up the cement price by 30-60 yuan/ton, and the implementation will wait and see; Guangxi region is planning to push up the cement price by 30-50 yuan/ton. After the two lakes region experienced many times of pushing up, the price was temporarily stable this week.

2024-11-01 17:35:36

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Sichuan and Chongqing in Southwest China has improved, and the cement price has been steadily promoted; the price increase in Yunnan and Guizhou may be blocked. It is understood that the fourth quarter of Yunnan plans to implement peak staggering production for 51-60 days, affected by the policy, the output of enterprises in the region has declined, and the inventory has declined slightly.

2024-10-18 17:38:28

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern Guangdong, western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta region will be raised by 20-30 yuan/ton this week, and cement prices in Guangxi will also be raised. The Hubei region continued to push up 30-50 yuan/ton, the overall market in Hunan was stable and small, and the Yueyang region was notified to rise.

2024-10-12 17:23:19

The Yangtze River Economic Zone is one of the most dynamic economic regions in China. There are 168 enterprises and 608 production lines in ten provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Basin, with a total clinker production capacity of 720 million tons. If we can take the lead in realizing the high-quality and healthy development of the cement industry in the Yangtze River Basin, the cement industry in other regions can also embark on the road of sound development.

2024-09-10 10:03:17

Henan cement market is facing unprecedented challenges. In the first half of the year, the cement output of Henan Province decreased by 16.6% compared with the same period last year, and the demand was seriously lower than expected at the beginning of the year. In terms of production, the average number of off-peak shutdown days of 62 clinker production lines in Henan Province from January to July reached 136 days, the production time was 77 days, and the average kiln line operation rate was only 36%.

2024-08-16 13:19:30

We should strengthen industry communication and enterprise dialogue, abandon the Cold War mentality, not vicious competition, not "cheap" products, not "involution" marketing, consciously resist the use of low-price dumping, loss-making sales and other improper means, jointly create a fair and stable market environment and competition order, build a good industry ecology, and reduce waste of resources and environmental pressure.

2024-08-12 11:33:12

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the rebound in cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of central and southern Guangdong is not optimistic, and the Guangxi region is tepid. The market prices of the two lakes are basically stable, and there is a decline in some areas. Leading enterprises in Guangdong try to restore the price of cement, but under the influence of high temperature weather, the actual effect is not good. The rain weather in Guangxi is decreasing, the market demand is limited, the price is stable, and the local market is falling. Cement prices in Hubei are stable, and high temperatures affect demand. The Hunan area continues the high temperature, the demand is weak, the partial price falls. Affected by rainfall, the market demand in Henan is not good, and the price is stable.

2024-08-09 17:12:17

Shaanxi Guanzhong cement prices have reached the bottom and stabilized, the price war has eased, the market adjustment, the full recovery still needs time. Ningxia enterprises plan to raise prices by taking the opportunity of off-peak kiln shutdown, and the specific effect remains to be tested. Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang markets are stable, Xinjiang prices are stable, Gansu is partially fine-tuned and overall stable, Gansu will implement peak staggering and kiln shutdown, and market trends are concerned. The price of cement in Qinghai maintains the status quo without significant fluctuation.

2024-08-09 16:37:18

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-08-02 17:25:15

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in central and southern China has recovered by 10-15 yuan/ton, and the quotation in Guangxi is temporarily stable. Prices in some areas of the two lakes have fallen in the early stage, and the overall market is mainly stable this week.

2024-08-02 17:16:26

At present, the cement industry needs to accumulate strength through "peak staggering to output", so as to be able to achieve "rational capacity removal" in the future.

2024-07-31 18:27:21

"There are two leading enterprises fighting in Guanzhong.".

2024-07-31 17:32:22

On July 20, 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation measures of capacity replacement in the cement and glass industry. The revised Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry will come into effect on August 1, 2021.

2024-07-24 12:08:35

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, heavy rainfall is prevalent in East China this week, with mountain torrents and floods in some areas. Many construction sites have been shut down, cement demand has plummeted, and cement prices have fallen slightly.

2024-07-12 15:40:36

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, heavy rainfall is prevalent in East China this week, with mountain torrents and floods in some areas. Many construction sites have been shut down, cement demand has plummeted, and cement prices have fallen slightly.

2024-07-05 16:08:54

From 2015 to 2022, the whole seven-year window period, the industry did not think about how to put the capacity into practice, but continued to increase the actual capacity through various means.

2024-07-04 09:19:12

Shandong Province issued the Action Plan for Upgrading the Building Materials Industry (2024-2026), which aims to promote the green, low-carbon and high-quality development of the building materials industry. The action plan focuses on the cement industry and puts forward the tasks of stable growth, structural adjustment, digital transformation, green manufacturing and safety improvement.

2024-07-01 17:05:09

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Northeast China is generally stable, the demand is stable, and the expectation of off-peak kiln shutdown is good.

2024-06-28 17:09:41

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cost of cement production has risen, and the price of cement in Dali and Lijiang areas of Yunnan has risen again by 30 yuan/ton. The market demand in Sichuan and Chongqing is weak, and local cement prices have fallen.

2024-06-28 17:06:31

Wang Jianchao believes that there are objective and subjective reasons for the current predicament of the cement industry.

2024-06-26 10:23:37

Cement prices in Gansu and Qinghai were temporarily stable after rising this week, while the actual implementation range in Ningxia was narrowed, according to the cement market data center. The overall performance of Shaanxi market is stable.

2024-06-21 15:30:08

Strict implementation of off-peak production is an important reason for the rise of local cement prices.

2024-06-18 09:51:24

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in Northwest China continue to rise under the influence of the new national standard and the policy of staggering peak and stopping kilns.

2024-06-14 17:35:49

According to the cement network market data center news, the implementation of the new national standard, the cost of cement increased, Gansu Wuwei, Ningxia, northern Shaanxi major enterprises notice to raise the price of cement 30-50 yuan/ton, the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-06-07 13:57:03

The three northeastern provinces have issued notices on peak staggering production in the cement industry, requiring cement clinker enterprises to shut down kilns for 15 days from June 1.

2024-05-30 09:47:51

Liu Jibin, President of Gansu Cement Association, and his delegation went to Yongdeng Qilianshan Cement Co., Ltd. and Lanzhou Hongshi Cement Co., Ltd. for investigation.

2024-05-29 09:20:20

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

Under the background of the current downturn in the cement market and the tightening of the mine transfer policy, it is extremely difficult to solve the mine problem in the short term, and ultimately waiting for such enterprises, I am afraid they will withdraw from the market.

2024-05-22 09:17:44

The cost of purchased limestone is basically more than 40 yuan/ton, and the cost of limestone purchased by some enterprises is even 50-60 yuan/ton, which is more than 30 yuan/ton higher than the cost of limestone per ton of self-owned mining enterprises. Converted to clinker, the cost of raw materials per ton of clinker is almost 40 yuan/ton higher.

2024-05-21 17:34:42

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall demand for cement in East China has been bleak in recent years, and cement prices in many places have been lowered to varying degrees.

2024-05-17 17:31:09

On November 21, the Western Construction (002302) issued a prospectus for issuing stocks to specific targets in 2021. The company plans to introduce Conch Cement as a strategic investor through this issue, and Conch Cement will subscribe for 183 million shares, accounting for 12.48% of the total equity after the issue, becoming the second largest shareholder. The purpose of this issue is to optimize the capital structure, supplement liquidity and repay bank loans, which is expected to bring the company an annual increase of 8.85 billion yuan in operating income and a total profit of 708 million yuan, up 38.71% and 78.23% respectively from 2023.