in 2022, has not seen any obvious signs of recovery so far. On the
demand side, according to the statistics Bureau, the cement output in January-April 2023 was 10000 tons 58429, an increase of 2.5% over the same period last year, and 193.92 million tons in April, an increase of 1.4%
over the same period last year. The cement industry demand platform will probably be broken after three years. The cement demand in Northeast China has shrunk by 47%, the cement demand in North China has shrunk by 30%, the cement demand in Northwest China has shrunk by 26%, and the cement demand in Southwest China has shrunk by 23%. In terms of
price, data from the Cement Big Data Research Institute show that. From January to April 2023, the average price of cement in China decreased by 19% compared with the same period last year. However, the national 
Why is the overproduction of cement industry becoming more and more serious now? A senior person who has been concerned about the development of the cement industry for a long time said that the main reasons for a simple analysis are as follows:
1
. In the past few years, after the cement enterprises collectively stagger the peak and stop production, the supply has been controlled to a certain extent. In addition, the demand for cement is relatively strong, and the profits of cement enterprises are also rising.
Therefore, many cement enterprises strive to maintain grinding as usual during off-peak and kiln shutdown to occupy a higher market share and increase sales revenue. The measures taken are nothing more than improving the output of the kiln within the operating time through production improvement and transformation, and expanding the storage of clinker.
With the normalization of off-peak production and the continuous "increase" of shutdown days, increasing "firepower" output in a limited time has become an important means for enterprises to improve efficiency, which further stimulates the enthusiasm of enterprises to increase production and transformation. With the continuous improvement of the
new dry process cement technology and the mature management, it is easy to give full play to the potential of the kiln.
Under the condition of capacity replacement of new (reconstruction, expansion) construction projects, in order to prevent fraud in replacement, the relevant policies stipulate that the design capacity (in capacity replacement) should be compared with the actual capacity, and the smaller one should be taken. Actual capacity refers to the capacity calculated according to the kiln (outer) diameter.
With the implementation of this policy, the kiln diameter and production capacity have formed an "ironclad" corresponding relationship. The kiln diameter of the new production line is accurately converted to millimeter-level single digits according to the displacement of production capacity. Anyway, the kiln diameter is certain and the scale of production capacity is "ironclad".
Subsequently, environmental impact assessment, energy consumption and production permits are all based on the "ironclad" production capacity. If the kiln is a little longer, it is more conducive to overproduction of the production line.
3
In the new projects that need to implement capacity replacement, a considerable part of them are in the list of technological transformation and relocation that do not expand production capacity, which can not formulate capacity replacement plans, and are based on the transformation and upgrading of "dismantling two into one" and the transformation and expansion of cities into parks, which can not formulate capacity replacement plans, that is, 1: After the transformation and upgrading of this kind of 1:1 production line, its overcapacity can not be underestimated.
4
Under the background of continuous improvement of technical equipment, cement enterprises have accumulated a certain amount of funds in recent years. In view of the cyclical development of the cement industry, in order to cope with the market downturn and the deterioration of the competitive environment that will almost inevitably occur in the future, the industry has set off a wave of upgrading to reduce unit energy consumption through production increase and transformation. One of the results
of overproduction is that the effect of peak staggering is weakening day by day.
Taking a production line with an approved capacity of 5000t/d as an example, assuming that it stops production for 100 days a year (365 days a year), the annual output is 132 without overproduction. The annual output reaches 132.
This is only the case of one production line. If the overproduction of cement enterprises in the region is very common, even if the off-peak production time in the region is continuously extended, it is difficult to achieve the ideal effect of "effective control of supply".
Taking Henan as an example, more than 20 production lines of local cement enterprises have been upgraded in recent years, and the actual production capacity has been increasing. Even if the current implementation of peak staggering production is better than in previous years, it is still difficult to stabilize the market situation.
Local enterprises said bluntly, "Even if Zhonglian Tongli and , which rank the top two in terms of production capacity, in my opinion, Normalization of off-peak production is indeed one of the effective measures to alleviate the current industry dilemma, but in the continuous extension of off-peak production days, we should also pay attention to the long-term impact of overproduction.
Of course, what needs to be considered more is whether the cement industry can find more effective ways and means to resolve overcapacity besides peak staggering production. After all, in the final analysis, behind the growing problem of overproduction, the normalization of peak staggering production is also an important driving force.
Attention: China Cement Network will be on July 6-7, 2023. After the " meeting in Chongqing, we will visit the Oriental Hope < a href="https://price.ccement.com/pricenewslist-1-500000-0.
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