cement industry is undoubtedly the serious and increasing overcapacity.
In fact, as early as 2009, the state realized the problem of overcapacity in the cement industry, and issued "Several Opinions on Restraining Overcapacity and Repeated Construction in Some Industries to Guide the Healthy Development of the Industry", which is known as "No.38" in the industry.
It is also proposed to strictly control the new cement production capacity, implement the principle of eliminating backward production capacity in equal quantities, suspend the construction of cement projects that have not yet started before September 30, 2009 and carry out a careful clean-up, and strictly prohibit the construction of projects that do not conform to the above principles.
However, over the past 16 years, the overcapacity of domestic cement has become more and more serious. so." What is the biggest failure of the cement industry in the past ten years? On December 31, 2017, after the expiration of the "Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in Some Industries with Serious Overcapacity" (No.127 of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [2015]),
a large number of zombie production capacity was revived
. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in Cement and Glass Industry (hereinafter referred to as the Measures) to promote the adjustment of industrial structure and guide the orderly withdrawal of excess cement capacity.
Since the implementation of the Measures, the cement industry has set off a wave of new line boom. Statistics show that in 2018-2023 alone, there were 57 production lines for capacity replacement in the national cement industry, with a total capacity of about 91 million tons, totaling 4136. Even by 2024, there will be 1463.
For example, a cement plant in Hunan has built a new 4900 t/d cement clinker production line (outer diameter 4.78 m) through capacity replacement, with a total capacity of 6166 t/d, and the replacement ratio is 1:1. The kiln diameter is "special" to only 4.
As for the serious overproduction of the production line after capacity replacement, Everyone in the industry knows it.
The final result is that the backward production line, which should have been eliminated with technological upgrading and market changes, has been transformed into a large new line with strong competitiveness through capacity replacement. With the application of various "flexible means", it is strange that clinker production capacity can really be removed. Since the second half of
2016, with the implementation of peak staggering production and the improvement of industry competition and cooperation, the contradiction between supply and demand in cement industry has been objectively alleviated. China Cement Net big data shows that in 2015, the national cement industry profit was only 32.97 billion yuan, and then rose year after year, to a historical peak of 186.7 billion yuan in 2019, which was 5.
In the cement industry, excessive industry profits, on the one hand, stimulate the enthusiasm of capacity construction, and intensify the speed of capacity replacement and various" small actions "in the process; On the other hand, in those years, almost as long as there was a line, they could "lie down and make money", which led to the same economic benefits of backward production capacity, which not only weakened the motive force of withdrawal, but also made backward enterprises reserve a large amount of funds, so that some of the relatively backward production capacity "ammunition" reserves are sufficient, and now "the tail is too big to drop".
So how exaggerated were the profits of the cement industry in the past few years? Taking the steel industry with high "building material attribute" as an example, the profit of the steel industry in 2019 is basically the same as that of the cement industry, which is 189.994 billion yuan, but the revenue is as high as 4.27 trillion yuan, and the profit margin is only 4.
The experience of developed countries in Europe and the United States has given us a large number of cases. In the future, the demand for cement will inevitably continue to decline, and eventually the per capita annual consumption of cement will probably drop to 700-800 kg. Even if the national population is still 1.4 billion, the actual demand will be about 1 billion tons, which is the reality that the cement industry will inevitably face. What about
the future?
On the one hand, large enterprises play a leading role, take the initiative to shut down their backward production capacity, optimize the layout of assets, and set an example to do a good job of capacity reduction; on the other hand, appropriate market competition, maintain a reasonable level of profit in the industry, and eliminate backward production capacity; at the same time, strengthen the elimination of energy consumption and environmental protection, so that the production capacity that should be withdrawn can be withdrawn, and it is best to suspend the replacement of production capacity.
Everything has its own law, which is the law of nature and society. Too much human intervention will inevitably lead to serious counter-attack. In fact, today is just to pay for the past, if we continue to blindly protect production capacity, restrict exit, when the industry breaks, the destructive power will only be stronger.
Exit, although it is a heavy topic, but in today's situation, it is better to choose an opportunity to exit than to die. Stop loss in time is a kind of profit.
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