According to the data center of China Cement Network, due to the general performance of market demand, the price of cement in Kuqa area of Xinjiang has fallen by 10-20 yuan/ton recently, and the surrounding Aksu area may fall synchronously. But even so, the cement market situation in Xinjiang is far better than that in the whole country. According to the big data of
China Cement Network, domestic cement prices have continued to fall since the beginning of this year due to the decline in demand. As of early August, the national cement price index CEMPI has fallen by 31 points compared with the beginning of the year, and the overall market has shown the characteristics of "low peak season and weak off-season".
Even in the past hot spots of the market, such as some provinces and cities in East China and Central South China, the market has continued to decline, and it is very common for cement prices to start with the prefix 2, and it is not uncommon for them to fall to the prefix 1. After the
cement demand entered the downward cycle, under the background of the continuous downward trend of the national cement price, the relatively stable market situation of Xinjiang cement industry has undoubtedly become the envy of other provinces. In fact, in view of the achievements of supply-side reform in Xinjiang under the background of low capacity utilization, the industry has long been interested in learning, but with little success. What is the core of the success of the
"Xinjiang model"? With an area of 1.6649 million square kilometers,
Xinjiang is the largest provincial-level administrative region in China, accounting for about 1/6 of the total land area, with a permanent population of 25.89 million in 2021.
Xinjiang
used to be a blue ocean in the cement industry. At the beginning of 2010, the cement production capacity was only 25.9 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was as high as 96%. But then a large number of new lines poured in, and the local area soon faced a serious overcapacity of cement. Especially in 2010-2014, the cement production capacity increased to about 90 million tons, and the cement production capacity increased nearly three times in five years. After the rapid growth of
production capacity, the problem of overcapacity of cement in Xinjiang was rapidly highlighted. By 2016, the cement output in Xinjiang was 42.33 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was only 42%, ranking at the end of the country, which is the place with the most overcapacity of cement in the country. In terms of
regional market structure, according to the big data of China Cement Network, Xinjiang currently has 70.742 million tons of cement clinker production capacity and about 100 million tons of cement production capacity. The concentration of regional production capacity is relatively high, and the production capacity of TOP2 enterprises accounts for 50%, and the distribution of enterprises is relatively uniform. According to
the latest data, Xinjiang's cement output in 2022 was 38.45 million tons, down 18% from the same period last year, and the capacity utilization rate was only about 38%.
Faced with the serious problem of overcapacity, the cement industry in Xinjiang has focused on promoting the structural reform of the supply side, carrying out peak staggering production since 2014, and continuously optimizing it. In particular, the introduction of peak-staggering replacement has effectively solved the imbalance between the regional carbide slag production line and the traditional clinker production line, resolved the internal contradictions, and provided strong support for the improvement of the overall supply and demand environment of the market.
With high industry concentration and strong implementation of peak staggering production, the problem of overcapacity of cement in Xinjiang has been alleviated, and the price situation has remained relatively stable in recent years.
Generally speaking, the core of the success of the "Xinjiang Model" benefits from two aspects.
Firstly, the vast regional area not only limits the flow of cement in the region, but also increases the difficulty of external cement inflow, which makes the regional market between Xinjiang and Xinjiang relatively closed, which is conducive to the maintenance of the price situation;
Secondly, the high concentration of production capacity, the concentration of production capacity of the top ten cement enterprises in Xinjiang has reached about 75%, and the concentration of production capacity of the leading enterprises has reached 50%. In addition, the wide geographical area and the scattered distribution of enterprises are conducive to the stability of the competitive and cooperative relationship. It is difficult for
other provinces to replicate the "Xinjiang Model"
. The core of the success of the "Xinjiang Model" lies in the closed regional environment and high industry concentration, which are indispensable, but it is very difficult for other provinces to meet these two requirements at the same time.
From the perspective of the Yangtze River Basin with severe market downturn since this year, the Yangtze River Golden Route is a double-edged sword. When the market is good, the cement clinker along the Yangtze River can cover the coastal market of East China downstream, but once the market goes down, the convenient shipping conditions will make the cement market of all provinces on the route face external shocks at any time.
On the one hand, there are many provinces involved in the Yangtze River Basin, and it is difficult to be "even" in terms of peak staggering and kiln shutdown. On the other hand, enterprises in the region have their own ideas on peak staggering. In this case, even if some provinces have good implementation of peak staggering and kiln shutdown, it is difficult to cope with market shocks.
Simply put, the whole Yangtze River Basin cement enterprises are "grasshoppers on a rope", as long as some core enterprises choose the volume strategy, then the market will be difficult to stabilize. This is true of the Yangtze River Basin, the Pearl River Basin, North China, the Central Plains and other areas with convenient transportation.
In this way, there are really not too many provinces that can bring the "Xinjiang model" into full play. The downward trend of cement demand in the
future can not be changed. For cement enterprises, energy saving and carbon reduction has become a necessary "homework" for cement enterprises to maintain market competitiveness. The cement industry will soon be incorporated into the national carbon market, and it is urgent for cement enterprises to establish a carbon emission management system and enhance the ability of carbon asset management.
In order to actively respond to the national environmental protection policy and implement the concept of green and low-carbon development, China Cement Network will hold the "2023 Cement'Double Carbon 'Conference and the 10th China Cement Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" in Zhengzhou, Henan Province. The cement industry is moving towards a low-carbon, more energy-saving and greener high-quality development.
At the same time, the medal ceremony of "2023 Advanced Enterprises of Double Carbon" in Cement Industry and the "Double Carbon" Equipment Exhibition will be held . After the meeting, we will also organize a visit to Jiyuan Zhonglian Cement Co., Ltd. "The world's first production line of carbon sequestration auxiliary cementitious materials and low-carbon cement from flue gas CO2 of steel slag capture cement kiln".
浙公网安备33010802003254号