[原创]2019年水泥股表现与2020年投资机会分析

2020-03-18 10:04:31

2019年,申万水泥指数同比大涨61.78%,水泥板块远远跑赢大盘,A股17只水泥个股和港股8家个股全年实现上涨。为何去年水泥股如此强劲?本文首先回顾了2019年沪深两市水泥板块及相关个股的表现,然后进一步对2020年水泥板块的投资机会作一分析,以供投资者参考。

截至2019年12月31日,沪深两市中以水泥制造为主营业务的上市公司有18家,其中在深圳上市的有7家,在上海上市的有11家,港股上市的10家,与去年相比没有变化。截止2019年12月31日,申万水泥指数同比大涨61.78%,水泥板块远远跑赢大盘,A股17只水泥个股和港股8家个股全年实现上涨。为何去年水泥股如此强劲?本文首先回顾了2019年沪深两市水泥板块及相关个股的表现,然后进一步对2020年水泥板块的投资机会作一分析,以供投资者参考。

一、2019年水泥板块表现回顾

1.1 A股:水泥板块连续四年跑赢大盘

1.1.1 行业板块VS大盘

2019年,上证综指整体保持上涨趋势,1月起从低谷2465.29点开始一路上涨至接近3300点,经过一个月的调整后再次落回3000点以下,之后至年末一直在3000点上证震荡,最终全年收官于3050.124点。截止2019年12月31日,上证指数年内累计上涨22.30%。同期申万水泥制造业指数累计大涨61.78%,远远跑赢大盘。2016-2019年,水泥板块连续四年跑赢大盘,也是2010年以来年内涨幅最大的一年。

图1:水泥板块年内大涨61.78%,连续四年跑赢大盘

资料来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

分季度看,除三季度外,水泥版块均跑赢大盘。水泥板块一、四季度表现优异,均大幅上涨,跑赢大盘。一季度,尽管水泥价格展开季节性调整,但资本市场行情升温,加上前期已跌至相对低点,一季度上证指数上涨23.93%,水泥板块大涨32.05%;二季度大盘行情回调,下调3.62%,水泥版块二季度历来表现不佳,但也小幅上涨了2.33%,跑赢大盘;三季度,大盘继续下挫,水泥版块也下跌4.27%;四季度,需求进入旺季,水泥价格开始回升,并再创下历史新高,水泥板块在短暂的停歇后继续上攻,上涨了25.06%,同期大盘仅上涨4.99%,水泥版块远远跑赢大盘。

表1:一、四季度大幅上涨,二、三季度震荡

资料来源:水泥大数据(<https://data.ccement.com/>)

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Correlation

On November 5, 2024 Fortune's "Most Admired Chinese Companies" list was released, and Conch Group and Beixin Group Building Materials Co., Ltd. of China Building Materials Group were included in the list of building materials and glass.

2024-11-08 10:18:13

Tianrui Cement said that as a shareholder of the joint venture, the group has the right to consult the financial reports, accounting books and accounting vouchers of the joint venture, which does not constitute the "improper purpose" alleged by the joint venture. The Company has sent a legal letter to the Associate in early November but has not received any response from the Associate.

2024-11-07 09:52:26

He stressed that Southern Cement should resolutely implement the spirit of the mobilization meeting of Tianshan Materials in the fourth quarter of the decisive battle, firmly implement the "three fine management", take various measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and make every effort to accomplish the annual target task.

2024-11-07 09:50:11

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

From the recent market situation, the overall cement industry in the fourth quarter has a better expectation, the company has certain advantages in cost control and other aspects, will better benefit from the current round of price recovery and the impact of the rising boom stage.

2024-11-05 11:03:06

On November 1, 2024, Sichuan Cement Association held a review meeting on the Guidelines for the Identification of Differentiated Peak-Staggered Production in Sichuan Cement Industry in Chengdu. The meeting was chaired by Zhang Kui, Deputy Secretary-General of Sichuan Cement Association and Director of Technical Information Center, and attended by Du Yunlong, Secretary-General of Sichuan Cement Association, experts of Sichuan Cement Industry and relevant staff of Sichuan Cement Association.

2024-11-05 10:57:13

As Dong Shihong said, "Carbon is the future". At the intersection of history and future, Shijing Science and Technology, with low carbon as its pen, helps the cement industry to depict a harmonious picture of green mountains, green waters and industrial prosperity, and casts a hard backbone of sustainable development in the blending of grey and green.

2024-11-04 09:35:58

At the meeting, Yan Haochun brought the theme report "Dream of Blue Sky: Exploring the Green Footprint of Cement Industry in the Context of Carbon Market". She pointed out that the cement industry faced the risk of rising costs in the context of the carbon market.

2024-11-01 16:10:56

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent, and the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages with the support of increasing peak staggering efforts in various regions. It is expected that the results of cement price increase in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-01 11:10:16

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

In this journey of green transformation, the cement industry is firmly moving towards a low-carbon future, from technological innovation to management optimization, from the application of clean energy to the promotion of alternative fuels, each initiative is depicting a new journey for the industry. Let us work hand in hand to lead the wave of emission reduction with innovation, fulfill the green mission with practical actions, write a brilliant chapter of green and low-carbon development of the cement industry, and contribute to the construction of a beautiful earth.

2024-10-31 09:43:57

At the symposium, the leaders of 20 enterprises from key industries such as electronics, automobiles, machine tools, electrical equipment, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, household appliances, food and medicine made exchanges and speeches, introducing the development trends of the industry and the operation of enterprises, and putting forward suggestions on tackling key technical problems, equipment transformation, market development, talent introduction, overseas cooperation and business environment. The relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry responded to the problems and demands reflected by the enterprises.

2024-10-30 14:22:32

The change in results was mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in sales volume and prices of the Group's cement business products, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in operating income and profit.

2024-10-29 21:02:47

Since the end of the third quarter, the price of cement products in East China has risen, and the prosperity of building materials has recovered. With its strong competitive efficiency advantage, Shangfeng is expected to take the lead in benefiting, while its unique new economy equity investment business will further help the company maintain steady growth in performance with the upward cycle of semiconductor, new materials and other technology industries.

2024-10-29 20:15:23

According to the recommendation of China National Building Material Company Limited, the controlling shareholder of the Company, the nomination committee of the Board of Directors of the Company reviewed the qualifications of the relevant personnel, and the Board of Directors agreed to nominate Mr. Liu Xide as a director candidate of the eighth session of the Board of Directors of the Company. The term of office of the newly elected director shall commence from the date of consideration and approval at the general meeting and end on the expiry of the term of the eighth session of the Board of Directors.

2024-10-29 11:12:15

Recently, a number of cement companies have released three quarter performance reports. In the first three quarters, due to the continuous decline in cement demand and intensified competition, their performance declined in varying degrees, and some enterprises suffered serious losses.

2024-10-29 09:26:00

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Pearl River Delta in central and southern Guangdong is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the Guangxi region is temporarily stable. Cement prices in Hunan and Hubei continued to rise by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-25 17:23:23

The reason for the change in performance was that the sales volume and price of cement, the main product, declined year-on-year, and the decline in unit cost failed to compensate for the adverse impact of the price decline, resulting in a year-on-year decline in profit indicators.

2024-10-25 10:58:33

Tapai said that from January to September 2024, due to the continuous decline in cement demand and intensified competition, the company's cement sales price fell by 18.27% year-on-year, and the cost of cement sales fell by 11.96% year-on-year due to the decline in the purchase price of raw materials such as coal and labor costs. As a result, the profitability of the main cement industry declined year-on-year. Affected by the rising stock index at the end of the quarter, the fair value change income of the securities investment held by the company increased, which increased the performance and slowed down the decline of the company's performance.

2024-10-25 10:56:53

On October 25, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" continued brilliantly. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Material Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of China Academy of Environmental Sciences, and Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology. Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Hubei Century Xinfeng Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center, China Architecture

2024-10-25 10:53:14

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38

Due to market conditions and other reasons, the implementation of the project was suspended, and after the application of enterprises, Yixing City and Wuxi City Bureau of Industry and Information Technology examined and reported. The Announcement on Construction Scheme of Cement Clinker Production Line of Yixing Tianshan Cement Co., Ltd. (Su Gong Xin Material [2022] No.405) and the Announcement on Change of Construction Scheme of Cement Clinker Production Line of Yixing Tianshan Cement Co., Ltd. (Su Gong Xin Material [2022] No.615) are hereby revoked.

2024-10-21 09:51:57

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Sichuan and Chongqing in Southwest China has improved, and the cement price has been steadily promoted; the price increase in Yunnan and Guizhou may be blocked. It is understood that the fourth quarter of Yunnan plans to implement peak staggering production for 51-60 days, affected by the policy, the output of enterprises in the region has declined, and the inventory has declined slightly.

2024-10-18 17:38:28

Recently, Jinghe Integration announced its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2024, which is expected to achieve business income of 6.7 billion yuan to 6.8 billion yuan, an increase of 33.55% to 35.54% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company is expected to be 270 million yuan to 300 million yuan, a substantial increase of 240 million yuan to 270 million yuan, an increase of 744.01% to 837.79%.

2024-10-18 10:53:49

Responsibilities: Be responsible for the daily management of the information business technology of the group headquarters, solve the technical problems of IT software and hardware; supervise the selection and implementation of the information system, integrate the three flows (information flow, logistics and capital flow), improve the management efficiency; guide the secondary enterprises to complete the business process reengineering and the construction of the intelligent factory, and use the information management technology to improve the decision-making and implementation system.

2024-10-18 10:45:43

Enterprises also need to understand the operation process of the carbon emission trading market, including the declaration, verification and reporting of carbon emission data, the allocation, trading and clearance of quotas, especially the accuracy of carbon emission data will directly affect the quota allocation and transaction costs of enterprises. Enterprises also need to pay attention to the dynamics and trends of the carbon emissions trading market, understand the market price fluctuations, trading activity and other information, in order to formulate reasonable trading strategies and risk management measures.

2024-10-17 11:20:09

Sichuan Shuangma announced on October 16 that on October 14, October 15 and October 16, 2024, the cumulative deviation of closing prices for three consecutive trading days was more than 20%, which belonged to abnormal fluctuations in stock trading. After verification, the company's recent business situation and internal and external business environment have not changed significantly. At present, the Company is planning a cash acquisition of equity, the transaction is still in the planning stage, there are uncertainties, the specific transaction plan to be further demonstrated and negotiated, the parties have not yet signed the relevant agreement, the Company will fulfill the obligation of information disclosure in a timely manner according to the progress of the transaction.

2024-10-17 09:27:50

China Tianrui Cement (01252. HK) announced that Mr. Chen Kun has tendered a resignation letter to resign as a joint company secretary and an authorised representative of the Company. Following the resignation of Mr. Chan, Ms. Lui Mei Ka has been appointed as the Joint Company Secretary and the Authorised Representative with effect from 16 October 2024. According to the database of listed companies, Ms. Lei Meijia graduated from the Chinese University of Hong Kong with a bachelor's degree in business administration and is now a member of the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants.

2024-10-17 09:27:36

Every employee should know what emission sources are available in his position, what emission reduction measures are available, and how much emission reduction can be achieved by these measures, so that they can understand the principle of emission, learn the method of accounting, use the carbon management platform, and improve the carbon management ability of each position, so as to achieve "carbon management in the whole process".

2024-10-16 13:15:57

Recently, Huaxin Green Building Materials (Huangshi Xisaishan) Co., Ltd. was established, with legal representative Mei Xiangfu and registered capital of 25 million yuan. Business scope includes: general items: manufacturing of cement products, manufacturing of new building materials (excluding dangerous chemicals), sales of cement products, sales of non-metallic minerals and products, leasing of machinery and equipment, etc.

2024-10-16 10:36:46

The above expected decrease is mainly attributable to the decrease in the selling prices of the Group's major products, namely cement, ready-mixed concrete and glass fibre, the decrease in the sales volume of cement, and the decrease in the share of results of associates, but partially offset by the decrease in the cost of sales of cement and ready-mixed concrete, and the decrease in the net loss from the change in the fair value of the Group's financial assets at fair value through profit or loss.

2024-10-16 10:12:19

Eliminating backward and inefficient production capacity is one of the important measures for the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the cement industry, as well as the needs of the enterprise's own development. Generally speaking, this will help the cement industry to promote structural optimization, improve production efficiency, reduce resource consumption and enhance brand image, and will also have a positive impact on the green development and competitiveness of the industry.

2024-10-15 10:17:37

It is understood that the total investment of the project is 10 billion yuan, including limestone ore for building stone, limestone ore for symbiotic flux and limestone ore for symbiotic cement, which provides sufficient resources for large-scale production of building stone, flux and cement. High-quality ore in the mining area helps to improve the performance and quality of related products in downstream industries and enhance the market competitiveness of products. It can meet the long-term and stable production requirements.

2024-10-14 11:16:31

Li Xinhua welcomed the visit of Honma Tetsuro and his delegation, introduced the main business sector of China Building Materials Group and its business performance in recent years, and focused on the development and future planning of new materials business and international business. He said that Panasonic Group is a leading multinational enterprise in the world, with a deep cultural foundation, and Panasonic Group's business philosophy and innovative spirit have brought inspiration and help to many enterprises. In the future, the two sides have great potential for cooperation in new materials, green low-carbon, third-party market cooperation and other business areas. It is hoped that the two sides will work together to consolidate the foundation of cooperation and achieve complementary advantages and mutual benefit.

2024-10-14 09:50:28

At the upcoming conference, the leaders of Conch Cement will deliver welcome speeches, share the experience and achievements of Conch Cement's low-carbon development with the participants, and inject new impetus into the green upgrading of the industry.

2024-10-12 16:29:42

However, it should be noted that brand promotion is not achieved overnight, but requires years or even decades of efforts. Our primary service offering is pricing strategies for large and mid-sized businesses to improve margins and achieve growth. The profit is equal to the price times the sales volume minus the cost. According to our research, there is a tenfold relationship between pricing and profit, while there is only a sixfold relationship between cost and sales volume, because when sales volume increases, the corresponding cost will also rise. We support Chinese enterprises to improve their profits, because only profits are the key to the survival of enterprises.

2024-10-12 13:16:50

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.