[原创]2019年水泥股表现与2020年投资机会分析

2020-03-18 10:04:31

2019年,申万水泥指数同比大涨61.78%,水泥板块远远跑赢大盘,A股17只水泥个股和港股8家个股全年实现上涨。为何去年水泥股如此强劲?本文首先回顾了2019年沪深两市水泥板块及相关个股的表现,然后进一步对2020年水泥板块的投资机会作一分析,以供投资者参考。

截至2019年12月31日,沪深两市中以水泥制造为主营业务的上市公司有18家,其中在深圳上市的有7家,在上海上市的有11家,港股上市的10家,与去年相比没有变化。截止2019年12月31日,申万水泥指数同比大涨61.78%,水泥板块远远跑赢大盘,A股17只水泥个股和港股8家个股全年实现上涨。为何去年水泥股如此强劲?本文首先回顾了2019年沪深两市水泥板块及相关个股的表现,然后进一步对2020年水泥板块的投资机会作一分析,以供投资者参考。

一、2019年水泥板块表现回顾

1.1 A股:水泥板块连续四年跑赢大盘

1.1.1 行业板块VS大盘

2019年,上证综指整体保持上涨趋势,1月起从低谷2465.29点开始一路上涨至接近3300点,经过一个月的调整后再次落回3000点以下,之后至年末一直在3000点上证震荡,最终全年收官于3050.124点。截止2019年12月31日,上证指数年内累计上涨22.30%。同期申万水泥制造业指数累计大涨61.78%,远远跑赢大盘。2016-2019年,水泥板块连续四年跑赢大盘,也是2010年以来年内涨幅最大的一年。

图1:水泥板块年内大涨61.78%,连续四年跑赢大盘

资料来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

分季度看,除三季度外,水泥版块均跑赢大盘。水泥板块一、四季度表现优异,均大幅上涨,跑赢大盘。一季度,尽管水泥价格展开季节性调整,但资本市场行情升温,加上前期已跌至相对低点,一季度上证指数上涨23.93%,水泥板块大涨32.05%;二季度大盘行情回调,下调3.62%,水泥版块二季度历来表现不佳,但也小幅上涨了2.33%,跑赢大盘;三季度,大盘继续下挫,水泥版块也下跌4.27%;四季度,需求进入旺季,水泥价格开始回升,并再创下历史新高,水泥板块在短暂的停歇后继续上攻,上涨了25.06%,同期大盘仅上涨4.99%,水泥版块远远跑赢大盘。

表1:一、四季度大幅上涨,二、三季度震荡

资料来源:水泥大数据(<https://data.ccement.com/>)

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Correlation

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Qi Liang, general manager of Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd., proposed that enterprises should strictly abide by the policy of capacity replacement and strictly exercise self-restraint. In addition, the state and associations should also supervise and remind enterprises to do so in accordance with the policies and measures promulgated.

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Liu Zonghu, member of the Party Committee and vice president of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., said that in the downward period of the industry, everyone is symbiotic. To achieve the goal of high-quality development, the industry should communicate more, not complain, not complain, not abandon, and work together for common development.

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