[原创]2019年水泥股表现与2020年投资机会分析

2020-03-18 10:04:31

2019年,申万水泥指数同比大涨61.78%,水泥板块远远跑赢大盘,A股17只水泥个股和港股8家个股全年实现上涨。为何去年水泥股如此强劲?本文首先回顾了2019年沪深两市水泥板块及相关个股的表现,然后进一步对2020年水泥板块的投资机会作一分析,以供投资者参考。

截至2019年12月31日,沪深两市中以水泥制造为主营业务的上市公司有18家,其中在深圳上市的有7家,在上海上市的有11家,港股上市的10家,与去年相比没有变化。截止2019年12月31日,申万水泥指数同比大涨61.78%,水泥板块远远跑赢大盘,A股17只水泥个股和港股8家个股全年实现上涨。为何去年水泥股如此强劲?本文首先回顾了2019年沪深两市水泥板块及相关个股的表现,然后进一步对2020年水泥板块的投资机会作一分析,以供投资者参考。

一、2019年水泥板块表现回顾

1.1 A股:水泥板块连续四年跑赢大盘

1.1.1 行业板块VS大盘

2019年,上证综指整体保持上涨趋势,1月起从低谷2465.29点开始一路上涨至接近3300点,经过一个月的调整后再次落回3000点以下,之后至年末一直在3000点上证震荡,最终全年收官于3050.124点。截止2019年12月31日,上证指数年内累计上涨22.30%。同期申万水泥制造业指数累计大涨61.78%,远远跑赢大盘。2016-2019年,水泥板块连续四年跑赢大盘,也是2010年以来年内涨幅最大的一年。

图1:水泥板块年内大涨61.78%,连续四年跑赢大盘

资料来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

分季度看,除三季度外,水泥版块均跑赢大盘。水泥板块一、四季度表现优异,均大幅上涨,跑赢大盘。一季度,尽管水泥价格展开季节性调整,但资本市场行情升温,加上前期已跌至相对低点,一季度上证指数上涨23.93%,水泥板块大涨32.05%;二季度大盘行情回调,下调3.62%,水泥版块二季度历来表现不佳,但也小幅上涨了2.33%,跑赢大盘;三季度,大盘继续下挫,水泥版块也下跌4.27%;四季度,需求进入旺季,水泥价格开始回升,并再创下历史新高,水泥板块在短暂的停歇后继续上攻,上涨了25.06%,同期大盘仅上涨4.99%,水泥版块远远跑赢大盘。

表1:一、四季度大幅上涨,二、三季度震荡

资料来源:水泥大数据(<https://data.ccement.com/>)

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Correlation

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Northwest China is weak, the demand in Guanzhong of Shaanxi has reached the peak, but the enterprises have stabilized the price to support the market, and the pressure of dark drop is looming; the price depression in Ningxia continues to impact the market in Gansu and Shaanxi; the situation of maintaining stability in Xinjiang is remarkable.

2025-04-25 17:28:03

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the demand for cement in southwest China is weak, the price of cement in Chongqing is weak and stable, and the fatigue in Yunnan is pushed up.

2025-04-25 17:20:00

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the price of cement in central and southern Zhejiang has dropped by about 20 yuan/ton, the scope of price reduction in the Yangtze River Delta market has expanded, and the overall market price has changed from dark to bright around the end of the month.

2025-04-25 16:53:38

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, driven by the policy of stopping kilns in the cement market in Northeast China, cement prices in Liaoning and Jilin have risen, while in Heilongjiang, due to the small price impact in the early stage, they have not followed the rise this time.

2025-04-25 16:44:28

According to the China Cement Market Data Center news, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cement market is weakening, prices in southern Hebei are falling back; Shanxi and Inner Mongolia markets are light, and prices are temporarily stable.

2025-04-25 16:32:04

"Overall, the cement industry into the carbon market has more advantages than disadvantages, although it increases the investment of enterprises, but it is conducive to promoting capacity clearance and industry concentration." Conch cement related responsible person said.

2025-04-25 10:46:42

Jinyuan announced that its operating income in 2024 was 6.734 billion yuan, an increase of 136.79% over the same period last year. Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 39.7145 million yuan, an increase of 105.85% over the previous year. Basic earnings per share is 0.05 yuan per share. The company plans not to distribute cash dividends, not to distribute bonus shares, and not to increase capital stock with reserve funds.

2025-04-25 10:42:03

According to the agreement, the two sides will adhere to the principles of complementary advantages, win-win cooperation and common development, and carry out in-depth cooperation in the fields of regional comprehensive development, material business and industrial integration, low-carbon and new energy industries, so as to create a model of cooperation between central and state-owned enterprises.

2025-04-25 10:42:01

Enterprise investigation APP shows that recently, Tianjin Dongsheng Urban Renewal Industry Operation Co., Ltd. was established. Its legal representative is Han Taoyuan, with a registered capital of 100 million yuan. Its business scope includes: park management services; landscaping construction; non-residential real estate leasing; housing demolition services, etc. Enterprise investigation of equity penetration shows that the company is jointly owned by China Jiaotong Second Highway Engineering Bureau Co., Ltd.

2025-04-25 10:27:53

The next five years will be a critical period for the transformation, upgrading and development of Shangfeng. Although we are facing all kinds of difficulties and challenges, as long as we continue to carry forward the spirit of perseverance and accumulation of Shangfeng people, make steady progress, unite as one, and go all the way, we will surely be able to achieve the goal of Shangfeng's vision and realize our life value!

2025-04-25 10:26:01

The average selling price of the company's cement products was higher than that of the same period last year, and the total operating income increased year on year. At the same time, through the work of "increasing income, reducing cost, controlling cost and increasing efficiency", the cost of cement manufacturing decreased by 2.16% year on year, and the comprehensive gross profit rate increased.

2025-04-25 10:14:17

As at the end of the reporting period, the total annual production capacity of cement clinker of the Company was approximately 18 million tons, the total annual production capacity of cement was approximately 20 million tons, the annual waste heat power generation capacity was approximately 86 MW, the total annual production capacity of commercial concrete was approximately 600,000 cubic meters, and the total annual production capacity of aggregate was approximately 18 million tons.

2025-04-25 10:04:31

On April 25, 2025, Shangfeng Cement (stock code: 000672), an A-share listed company, released its 2024 annual report and 2025 first quarterly report. In 2024, Shangfeng continued to demonstrate its excellent operational capability, and still achieved a revenue of 5.448 billion yuan and a net profit of 474 million yuan after deducting non-attributable profits despite cyclical fluctuations in the cement industry.

2025-04-25 10:01:50

On the evening of April 24, Shangfeng Cement released its annual report and quarterly report, while highlighting a new five-year development plan and a dividend scheme with a dividend rate of up to 7.5%. In the case that the scale of production capacity has not entered the top ten of the industry, the company's annual net return to the parent company ranks third among the listed companies in the industry, the comprehensive gross profit rate ranks first among the listed companies in the industry, and the net return to the parent company in a single quarter increases by 447.6%. While maintaining the high efficiency of the main business, the company's equity investment performance is outstanding, and a number of invested semiconductor science and technology enterprises have started to declare for listing one after another, and the newly released five-year planning report also clearly shows that the accumulation of its series of new economic equity investment will help the company to improve its quality and transformation.

2025-04-25 10:00:21

Iraq's prime minister launched a package of industrial projects on Thursday, mostly in the cement sector. Masna Province has launched six projects with a total investment of more than US $1.17 billion, including five cement projects and one chemical project. These projects help to achieve self-sufficiency in cement, reduce construction costs and create employment opportunities. Iraq's industrial development is facing many challenges. Since 2003, its industrial base has been destroyed and its economy is dependent on oil exports. However, the launch of this project is an important step to promote the strategy of economic diversification and lay the foundation for long-term development.

2025-04-25 09:53:11

The content shows that the replacement capacity of Xin'an Zhonglian Wanji Cement 4500t/d clinker production line is 1300t/d, and the capacity after replacement is 5800t/d. The transferred capacity comes from the 2500t/d clinker production line of the same company, which is used for the current capacity of 1300t/d, and the replacement ratio is 1:1.

2025-04-25 09:28:11

In accordance with the relevant provisions of the Company Law of the People's Republic of China and the Articles of Association of CCCC Shanghai Dredging Co., Ltd., the first meeting of the seventh session of the board of directors of CCCC Shanghai Dredging Co., Ltd. unanimously passed the following resolution: agreed to dismiss Wang Minqiu as the general manager of CCCC Shanghai Dredging Co., Ltd.; agreed to appoint Ding Jian as the general manager of CCCC Shanghai Dredging Co., Ltd.

2025-04-24 10:56:32

On the evening of April 23, Tianshan Stock Company issued a quarterly performance announcement, saying that the revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was about 14.947 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.64% compared with the same period last year. The net profit loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 1.494 billion yuan. The basic earnings per share loss was 0.2101 yuan. The revenue in the same period last year was about 16.359 billion yuan; The net profit loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company was approximately RMB1.923 billion, and the basic earnings per share loss was RMB0.222.

2025-04-24 10:03:28

Xizang Langxian Gaozheng Building Materials Co., Ltd. intends to build a 4000t/d cement clinker production line project (hereinafter referred to as "Langxian Project") in Nyingchi City Langxian County by means of capacity replacement within the autonomous region.

2025-04-24 09:43:00

Relevant technicians of Suzhou Shijing Science and Technology Co., Ltd. pointed out that SCR is a very mature denitrification technology, which has been widely used in power and other industries. However, the cement industry still needs to focus on the catalyst, soot blower and reaction tower flow field to further optimize the three aspects.

2025-04-23 15:08:00

On April 21, information from the Beijing Property Exchange showed that 51% of the shares of Xin'an Zhonglian Wanji Cement Co., Ltd. held by China United Cement Group Co., Ltd. were listed for transfer at a base price of about 200 million yuan.

2025-04-23 11:50:52

On April 21, Jianfeng Group announced its annual report for 2024. The company's operating income was 2.88 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to parent company was 108 million yuan, up 15.2% year-on-year; the net profit deducted from non-parent company was 96.62 million yuan, up 48.8% year-on-year; the net operating cash flow was 412 million yuan, up 871.3% year-on-year; EPS (fully diluted) is 0.3138 yuan.

2025-04-22 14:39:02

On April 21, Fujian Cement released its annual report for 2024. In 2024, the Company realized an operating income of RMB1.735 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 15.38%; the net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB167 million, compared with a loss of RMB323 million in the same period last year.

2025-04-22 14:31:46

Since the second half of 2024, based on the spirit of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on July 30, the cement industry has strengthened industry self-discipline and prevented "involution" vicious competition, and the operation situation of the industry is obviously better than that in the first half of the year. The cement industry has increased from a loss of 1.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year to a profit of 26 billion yuan in the whole year, which is far from the normal profit level of the industry, but it shows the importance of "anti-involution".

2025-04-22 13:34:08

The Hunan Provincial Development and Reform Commission said that after examination, it agreed in principle to the energy-saving report of the project. It is required to improve and strengthen the following energy-saving work on the basis of implementing various measures of the energy-saving report.

2025-04-22 09:51:04

During the reporting period, the cement industry ecology gradually improved, the company's cement sales price increased slightly, but decreased by 9.57% year-on-year. Benefiting from the impact of the decline in coal purchase price, the average cost of cement sales decreased year-on-year, but the decline in cost was less than decline in price, and the comprehensive gross profit rate decreased slightly year-on-year; Thanks to the impact of the capital market recovery, the company's financial investment income has increased substantially, which has increased the company's performance.

2025-04-21 17:25:14

It is hoped that the two sides will give full play to their respective advantages, further deepen supply chain coordination, build industrial ecology, expand global layout, innovate capital linkage, jointly build a safe, efficient and green supply chain system, work together to create a new pattern of cooperation and achieve win-win development of higher quality.

2025-04-21 10:48:10

In the future, Hami Tianshan Cement Company will earnestly implement the spirit of the working conference of the Group Company and Xinjiang Cement Company, firmly establish the idea of "a chess game", adhere to reform and innovation, make steady progress, promote the sharing of development achievements with employees, and strive to write a new chapter of high-quality development of the company.

2025-04-21 10:16:38

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, inventory has rebounded slightly, coupled with the impact of low prices of some enterprises, cement prices in many markets in the Yangtze River Delta in East China have fallen steadily. Cement prices in Fujian fell slightly by about 10 yuan/ton.

2025-04-18 16:51:01

According to the data center of China Cement Network, under the current stable price situation in the cement market in Northeast China, the upcoming kiln shutdown plan may have an impact on the relationship between supply and demand in the market, thus pushing up the price.

2025-04-18 16:42:43

To nominate Mr. Yang Jun, Mr. Zhu Shengli, Mr. Li Qunfeng, Mr. Wu Tiejun and Mr. Yu Shui as executive Directors, and Mr. Qu Wenzhou, Ms. He Shuyi and Ms. Han Xu as independent non-executive Directors, and submit the same to the 2024 annual general meeting of the Company for consideration and approval, with their terms of office effective from the date of approval at the 2024 annual general meeting.

2025-04-18 14:27:13

Sichuan Lanfeng Cement Co., Ltd. and other 63 enterprises overfulfilled the off-peak production task; Jiangyou Lahao Shuangma Cement Co., Ltd. and other 23 enterprises completed the off-peak production task for the whole year according to the standard; Linshui Hongshi Cement Co., Ltd. and other 2 enterprises failed to complete the off-peak production task.

2025-04-18 11:14:33

In Li Kunming's view, with the strengthening of self-discipline and off-peak production of cement enterprises, it is expected that the market will return to normalization in 2025, and the fluctuation space will be narrowed, showing the operation characteristics of "rising with a top and falling with a limit".

2025-04-18 10:47:57

Jalal Taibib, director of the Tunisian Foreign Investment Promotion Agency, told reporters that China's investment highlights the strong partnership between Tunisia and China and the confidence of Chinese enterprises in the Tunisian market, believing that the investment will bring a win-win situation.

2025-04-18 10:36:50

The Board considers that the above expected increase in profit is mainly due to the increase in the selling price of the Group's cement products and the decrease in the cost of sales during this period as compared to the corresponding period in 2024.

2025-04-17 14:03:15

30 A. M. on March 8, 2024, Zhang Wen of Fenyi Conch Cement Co., Ltd. was accidentally involved in the coupling of his safety belt in the process of repairing and replacing the wire rope of lifting machinery, causing the death of people. The direct economic loss is about 1.2 million yuan.

2025-04-17 14:01:51

In 2024, the peak-shifting production of cement in Sichuan Province was carried out in an orderly manner, with 88 all-round cement production enterprises and 108 clinker production lines all participating in peak-shifting production. According to the weighted average of 189 days of kiln shutdown per line, the annual peak-shifting production task of 140 days was overfulfilled. Among them, 63 enterprises including Sichuan Lanfeng Cement Co., Ltd. overfulfilled the off-peak production task; 23 enterprises including Jiangyou Lahao Shuangma Cement Co., Ltd. completed the off-peak production task for the whole year according to the standard; 2 enterprises including Linshui Hongshi Cement Co., Ltd. failed to complete the off-peak production task.

2025-04-17 13:09:10

"The formal incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market is of great positive significance for speeding up the removal of inefficient production capacity and promoting the high-quality development of the industry." Li Kunming, a cement analyst at China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, said bluntly.

2025-04-17 09:58:52

Domestic cement demand will maintain a moderate decline, this year, the company will respond to the call of the state, do a good job of anti-involution, continue to reduce costs in an all-round way, and continue to develop in emerging markets. As for the price trend of the industry, it will be determined by the implementation and in-place degree of the production capacity approved and filed by the enterprises.

2025-04-15 15:24:15

Huaxin has always adhered to the concept of "profit is the goal, income is the foundation". When the market demand increases, it is understandable to pursue share, but when the market demand declines, we should pursue income and price, otherwise the loss of both volume and price will be more.

2025-04-15 15:14:38

Shanghai Construction Engineering (600170) disclosed its 2024 annual report on the evening of April 14. In 2024, its operating income was 300.217 billion yuan, down 1.45% year-on-year; its net profit was 2.168 billion yuan, up 39.15% year-on-year; and its basic earnings per share was 0.18 yuan.

2025-04-15 09:31:13

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the demand in Northwest China is weak, the demand in Guanzhong of Shaanxi has reached the peak, but the enterprises have stabilized the price to support the market, and the pressure of dark drop is looming; the price depression in Ningxia continues to impact the market in Gansu and Shaanxi; the situation of maintaining stability in Xinjiang is remarkable.