[原创]2019年水泥股表现与2020年投资机会分析

2020-03-18 10:04:31

2019年,申万水泥指数同比大涨61.78%,水泥板块远远跑赢大盘,A股17只水泥个股和港股8家个股全年实现上涨。为何去年水泥股如此强劲?本文首先回顾了2019年沪深两市水泥板块及相关个股的表现,然后进一步对2020年水泥板块的投资机会作一分析,以供投资者参考。

截至2019年12月31日,沪深两市中以水泥制造为主营业务的上市公司有18家,其中在深圳上市的有7家,在上海上市的有11家,港股上市的10家,与去年相比没有变化。截止2019年12月31日,申万水泥指数同比大涨61.78%,水泥板块远远跑赢大盘,A股17只水泥个股和港股8家个股全年实现上涨。为何去年水泥股如此强劲?本文首先回顾了2019年沪深两市水泥板块及相关个股的表现,然后进一步对2020年水泥板块的投资机会作一分析,以供投资者参考。

一、2019年水泥板块表现回顾

1.1 A股:水泥板块连续四年跑赢大盘

1.1.1 行业板块VS大盘

2019年,上证综指整体保持上涨趋势,1月起从低谷2465.29点开始一路上涨至接近3300点,经过一个月的调整后再次落回3000点以下,之后至年末一直在3000点上证震荡,最终全年收官于3050.124点。截止2019年12月31日,上证指数年内累计上涨22.30%。同期申万水泥制造业指数累计大涨61.78%,远远跑赢大盘。2016-2019年,水泥板块连续四年跑赢大盘,也是2010年以来年内涨幅最大的一年。

图1:水泥板块年内大涨61.78%,连续四年跑赢大盘

资料来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

分季度看,除三季度外,水泥版块均跑赢大盘。水泥板块一、四季度表现优异,均大幅上涨,跑赢大盘。一季度,尽管水泥价格展开季节性调整,但资本市场行情升温,加上前期已跌至相对低点,一季度上证指数上涨23.93%,水泥板块大涨32.05%;二季度大盘行情回调,下调3.62%,水泥版块二季度历来表现不佳,但也小幅上涨了2.33%,跑赢大盘;三季度,大盘继续下挫,水泥版块也下跌4.27%;四季度,需求进入旺季,水泥价格开始回升,并再创下历史新高,水泥板块在短暂的停歇后继续上攻,上涨了25.06%,同期大盘仅上涨4.99%,水泥版块远远跑赢大盘。

表1:一、四季度大幅上涨,二、三季度震荡

资料来源:水泥大数据(<https://data.ccement.com/>)

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Correlation

Li Xinhua was removed from the post of Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, Standing Committee of the Party Committee and Director of China Building Material Group Co., Ltd. and no longer served as General Manager of China Building Material Group Co., Ltd. and retired.

2024-11-21 10:21:35

In the first three quarters, BBMG achieved a sales volume of more than 60 million tons of cement clinker (the total sales volume of cement and clinker in the same period last year was 72.07 million tons), and the comprehensive price of cement clinker was about 245 yuan/ton (excluding tax); In the third quarter, the sales volume of cement clinker was more than 20 million tons, the comprehensive price of cement clinker was about 250 yuan/ton (excluding tax), which increased by 8 yuan/ton, and the gross profit per ton was 54 yuan/ton, which increased by 13 yuan/ton.

2024-11-20 09:26:17

Xinjiang Midong Tianshan Cement Co., Ltd. is an enterprise that uses industrial waste carbide slag as raw material to produce cement clinker. Huang Runqiu came to the company's raw mill-raw material batching warehouse to check the ultra-low emission transformation of dust control, sound insulation and noise reduction, and airtight transportation facilities, to understand the emission concentration of atmospheric pollutants, and to encourage enterprises to continue to do a good job in dust and noise pollution control. Use clean energy to reduce energy consumption.

2024-11-19 16:35:38

Recently, the Shanxi Provincial Market Supervision and Administration issued a notice to cancel the industrial product production licenses of nine enterprises, including Shanxi Qushi Building Materials Co., Ltd. and Taiyuan Shitou Cement Co., Ltd. Shuozhou Branch General Cement 42.5. The reasons for the cancellation are that the validity period has not been extended and the enterprises have applied for cancellation.

2024-11-19 14:10:20

A judicial auction platform showed that Mizhi Changsheng Cement Co., Ltd. sold 29% of its shares in Mizhi Jidong Cement Co., Ltd. with a starting price of 101 million yuan. Tangshan Jidong Cement Co., Ltd. has the right of first refusal.

2024-11-18 14:05:43

Shuozhou Branch of Taiyuan Shitou Cement Co., Ltd. applied for cancellation of production license. Cement big data show that the company has a 600000 tons/year grinding station.

2024-11-18 10:23:52

Li Qunfeng, executive director and general manager of Conch Cement, said that in recent years, the company's dividend ratio has steadily increased, the dividend rate has remained stable, and the share repurchase ratio in 2023 has reached 51.82%. The company has always adhered to the principle of "effective investment", according to the standard of "market, resources and returns", from the perspective of improving the layout of the domestic market, to promote high-quality M & a projects. The purpose of holding stock funds is mainly for the sustainable and high-quality development of enterprises.

2024-11-18 09:30:12

Western Construction issued an announcement on the resignation of the chairman and the election of the new chairman. Wu Zhiqi, the chairman of the board of directors, submitted his resignation due to his age and resigned as the chairman, director and related positions of the eighth board of directors of the company. The resignation shall take effect from the date when his resignation is delivered to the board of directors. Wu Zhiqi has made important contributions to the company's high-quality development and various affairs during his tenure of office, for which the board of directors expresses its gratitude. As of the disclosure date of the announcement, Wu Zhiqi did not hold any shares of the company.

2024-11-18 09:20:31

Liu Yan said that the situation of overcapacity in the cement industry will exist for a long time, and the control of production and capacity will also exist for a long time. In recent years, the industry has achieved some results in anti-involution and anti-vicious competition, with large enterprises leading and small and medium-sized enterprises working together as the key, but we must also be aware that the current industry ecology is still fragile, which requires long-term efforts of all parties to jointly maintain.

2024-11-15 19:53:46

Involution is a roadblock to the development of the industry and a fat stone to move forward, which is harmful but not beneficial. Because the core of involution competition is to protect oneself, protect the market, and fight price war, once the enterprise is difficult to operate and its efficiency declines, without economic support, the enterprise is like a body drive with its skeleton and blood removed, unable to gain a foothold, it can no longer have new ideals and goals, can no longer concentrate on technological innovation and effective technological transformation, and can no longer take society and the overall situation into account. It is impossible to truly achieve green, low-carbon and digital operation, in short, enterprises without economic support will be eliminated and eliminated sooner or later, where can we talk about progress and development?

2024-11-15 18:10:09

Recently, the Bureau of Industry and Information Technology of the Corps issued the Notice on the Demolition of the Production Line of Capacity Replacement Cement Clinker of Tumushuke Qianhai Building Material Co., Ltd., the Notice on the Demolition of the Production Line of Capacity Replacement Cement Clinker of Huocheng Cement Plant of Yili Qingsong Nangang Building Material Co., Ltd., and the Notice on the Demolition of the Production Line of Capacity Replacement Cement Clinker of Xinjiang Jinta Cement Co., Ltd. According to the requirements of the Notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on Issuing the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry (the original [2021] No.80 of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), the production line used for capacity replacement must be shut down and dismantled before the construction project is put into operation.

2024-11-13 16:23:10

Sincerely hope that colleagues, the future of the cement industry where to go, carry out a big discussion within the industry, brainstorm, and work together to break the situation!

2024-11-13 15:58:52

With the gradual expansion of the national carbon emissions trading market, it has brought higher requirements and greater pressure for carbon management in all walks of life. To establish and improve the carbon management system is to respond to the national dual-carbon strategy, which is also the future development trend; to improve the carbon emission management of enterprises, which can provide comprehensive analysis and decision-making for the future development strategy of enterprises; and to accurately predict the changes in the carbon market, strengthen the enterprise's response to climate change risks in all aspects, and guide the preservation and appreciation of carbon assets.

2024-11-13 11:19:44

What is happening in the cement industry?

2024-11-11 07:01:23

On November 5, 2024 Fortune's "Most Admired Chinese Companies" list was released, and Conch Group and Beixin Group Building Materials Co., Ltd. of China Building Materials Group were included in the list of building materials and glass.

2024-11-08 10:18:13

Tianrui Cement said that as a shareholder of the joint venture, the group has the right to consult the financial reports, accounting books and accounting vouchers of the joint venture, which does not constitute the "improper purpose" alleged by the joint venture. The Company has sent a legal letter to the Associate in early November but has not received any response from the Associate.

2024-11-07 09:52:26

He stressed that Southern Cement should resolutely implement the spirit of the mobilization meeting of Tianshan Materials in the fourth quarter of the decisive battle, firmly implement the "three fine management", take various measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and make every effort to accomplish the annual target task.

2024-11-07 09:50:11

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

From the recent market situation, the overall cement industry in the fourth quarter has a better expectation, the company has certain advantages in cost control and other aspects, will better benefit from the current round of price recovery and the impact of the rising boom stage.

2024-11-05 11:03:06

On November 1, 2024, Sichuan Cement Association held a review meeting on the Guidelines for the Identification of Differentiated Peak-Staggered Production in Sichuan Cement Industry in Chengdu. The meeting was chaired by Zhang Kui, Deputy Secretary-General of Sichuan Cement Association and Director of Technical Information Center, and attended by Du Yunlong, Secretary-General of Sichuan Cement Association, experts of Sichuan Cement Industry and relevant staff of Sichuan Cement Association.

2024-11-05 10:57:13

As Dong Shihong said, "Carbon is the future". At the intersection of history and future, Shijing Science and Technology, with low carbon as its pen, helps the cement industry to depict a harmonious picture of green mountains, green waters and industrial prosperity, and casts a hard backbone of sustainable development in the blending of grey and green.

2024-11-04 09:35:58

At the meeting, Yan Haochun brought the theme report "Dream of Blue Sky: Exploring the Green Footprint of Cement Industry in the Context of Carbon Market". She pointed out that the cement industry faced the risk of rising costs in the context of the carbon market.

2024-11-01 16:10:56

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent, and the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages with the support of increasing peak staggering efforts in various regions. It is expected that the results of cement price increase in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-01 11:10:16

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

In this journey of green transformation, the cement industry is firmly moving towards a low-carbon future, from technological innovation to management optimization, from the application of clean energy to the promotion of alternative fuels, each initiative is depicting a new journey for the industry. Let us work hand in hand to lead the wave of emission reduction with innovation, fulfill the green mission with practical actions, write a brilliant chapter of green and low-carbon development of the cement industry, and contribute to the construction of a beautiful earth.

2024-10-31 09:43:57

At the symposium, the leaders of 20 enterprises from key industries such as electronics, automobiles, machine tools, electrical equipment, iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, building materials, household appliances, food and medicine made exchanges and speeches, introducing the development trends of the industry and the operation of enterprises, and putting forward suggestions on tackling key technical problems, equipment transformation, market development, talent introduction, overseas cooperation and business environment. The relevant departments and bureaus of the Ministry responded to the problems and demands reflected by the enterprises.

2024-10-30 14:22:32

The change in results was mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in sales volume and prices of the Group's cement business products, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in operating income and profit.

2024-10-29 21:02:47

Since the end of the third quarter, the price of cement products in East China has risen, and the prosperity of building materials has recovered. With its strong competitive efficiency advantage, Shangfeng is expected to take the lead in benefiting, while its unique new economy equity investment business will further help the company maintain steady growth in performance with the upward cycle of semiconductor, new materials and other technology industries.

2024-10-29 20:15:23

According to the recommendation of China National Building Material Company Limited, the controlling shareholder of the Company, the nomination committee of the Board of Directors of the Company reviewed the qualifications of the relevant personnel, and the Board of Directors agreed to nominate Mr. Liu Xide as a director candidate of the eighth session of the Board of Directors of the Company. The term of office of the newly elected director shall commence from the date of consideration and approval at the general meeting and end on the expiry of the term of the eighth session of the Board of Directors.

2024-10-29 11:12:15

Recently, a number of cement companies have released three quarter performance reports. In the first three quarters, due to the continuous decline in cement demand and intensified competition, their performance declined in varying degrees, and some enterprises suffered serious losses.

2024-10-29 09:26:00

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Pearl River Delta in central and southern Guangdong is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the Guangxi region is temporarily stable. Cement prices in Hunan and Hubei continued to rise by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-25 17:23:23

The reason for the change in performance was that the sales volume and price of cement, the main product, declined year-on-year, and the decline in unit cost failed to compensate for the adverse impact of the price decline, resulting in a year-on-year decline in profit indicators.

2024-10-25 10:58:33

Tapai said that from January to September 2024, due to the continuous decline in cement demand and intensified competition, the company's cement sales price fell by 18.27% year-on-year, and the cost of cement sales fell by 11.96% year-on-year due to the decline in the purchase price of raw materials such as coal and labor costs. As a result, the profitability of the main cement industry declined year-on-year. Affected by the rising stock index at the end of the quarter, the fair value change income of the securities investment held by the company increased, which increased the performance and slowed down the decline of the company's performance.

2024-10-25 10:56:53

On October 25, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" continued brilliantly. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Material Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of China Academy of Environmental Sciences, and Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology. Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Hubei Century Xinfeng Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center, China Architecture

2024-10-25 10:53:14

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38