On July 24, the 16th Bureau of China Railway made a public announcement, which exploded in the photovoltaic circle.
It is worth noting that in the purchase of photovoltaic modules, although the 16th Bureau of China Railway did not disclose the capacity, from the bidder's quotation, Tongwei shares are about 7% lower than Aixu shares.
Tongwei shares have also used photovoltaic "fried egg experiment war" to publicly question the cost of mass production of BC batteries , the reliability of the global scene and other issues.
Now, less than three months later, Tongwei shares have entered the BC track with the lowest quotation. This means that the BC production line of Tongwei shares will no longer stay in the pilot stage, but usher in the era of mass production.
In fact, Tongwei is not the only one betting on BC technology. According to the incomplete statistics of the Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, there are already Jingke Energy, ", and it is particularly worth mentioning in the near future. TCL Zhonghuan, Jingao Science and Technology, Longji Green Energy and other photovoltaic head enterprises began to carry out intensive technical transformation of production lines, while the direction mainly focused on the transformation of TOPCon production line BC . At the same time, some companies are betting on perovskite and laminated technology.
According to Digital New Energy DataBM.
The total loss of 24 main photovoltaic industry chain enterprises is up to 20 billion yuan . If the timeline is extended to a longer period, from 2024 to the first quarter of 2026, 37 A-share listed photovoltaic main chain enterprises have accumulated losses of about 1281.
Under the continuous large-scale blood loss, the cash flow of photovoltaic enterprises is becoming more and more tense. By the end of 2025, 19 photovoltaic A-share listed companies have lost or basically lost their "accumulated assets" for many years.
The question is: the industry is still losing money, why do many photovoltaic companies throw money at technological transformation at this time? Is it the initiative to seize the window of technology iteration or the forced self-help in the cold winter? In
June 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in conjunction with the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation, formally approved and issued three mandatory national standards in the photovoltaic field, covering the whole photovoltaic industry chain (Si licon materials, silicon wafers, components and inverters), which will be formally implemented on January 1, 2027.
Among them, "mandatory" means that the photoelectric conversion efficiency is less than 23.
According to the list of photovoltaic modules with the highest mass production efficiency released by TaiyangNews in July 2026, the stable mass production efficiency of BC modules of Aixu and Longji has reached 25%, ranking first, while the stable mass production efficiency of TOPCon modules of Jingao Technology ranks third, just exceeding 24%.
With the rising market standards for photovoltaic module products, many photovoltaic enterprises are forced to accelerate the iteration of technological transformation and continuously improve the photoelectric conversion efficiency.
Among them, the most representative is the change of purchasing direction of domestic state-owned enterprises. For example, in 2026, Huadian designated 6GW high-efficiency bidding section in 8GW component collection, requiring component conversion efficiency ≥ 23.
In the past, central state-owned enterprises gave priority to lowering prices, but now they collectively raise the efficiency threshold of component products, or open up exclusive bidding sections for new technologies such as BC, HJT, perovskite, etc. The competition of photovoltaic module products has shifted from "competing for low prices" to "competing for power generation efficiency and long-term benefits".
In addition , BC's high premium performance overseas has also attracted some photovoltaic enterprises to carry out technological transformation of production lines.
According to Digital New Energy DataBM. Especially in the European market, the premium of BC modules is significant : the latest average price of medium and large versions of BC modules is 12-13 cents/watt, while the average price of all-black small versions of BC modules is as high as 14-15 cents/watt.
In the future, the high premium will inevitably attract more enterprises to increase the layout of BC track. Professor Shen Wenzhong, director of Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University and consultant of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, predicts that "BC's market share will increase from 10% to 50% in the next five to eight years". "As a platform-based bottom technology, the crystalline silicon bottom cell of the future tandem cell will be developed based on the BC substrate first.".
Technology iteration can certainly improve battery efficiency, revitalize production capacity, and boost the industrial chain to reduce costs. However, under the pressure of policy and market, technological transformation is no longer a choice for photovoltaic enterprises, but a survival problem. Will the wave of
technological transformation delay the clearance of production capacity? But when the wave of large-scale technological transformation hits, will it make the production capacity that should have been cleared "survive" longer? According to the disclosure, only TOPCon production capacity will be upgraded to the latest 3.
Wang Shuai, vice president of Aixu Co., Ltd., judged at the semi-annual meeting of the Photovoltaic Industry Association: "It is expected that about 20% of the production capacity will be withdrawn from the market by the end of this year due to the inability to upgrade."
On the other hand , the process, process and yield of BC technology are far more complex than expected. Jiang Dongyu, vice president of Longji Green Energy, said bluntly that "it can not be achieved by investing more than 10 billion yuan in transformation", "the overall difficulty of BC technology is much higher than TOPCon, and it will maintain technological leadership in the next 3-5 years".
Moreover , BC has a high threshold for capacity construction and a long construction cycle, which makes it difficult to quickly create a new round of overcapacity in the short term. Tong Hongbo, president of the First Academy
of Longji Academia Sinica, pointed out in an exchange with the media that the newly laid out BC production line will go through at least three stages from laboratory to mass production: laboratory to pilot test, pilot test to GW level test, and then to tens of GW level mass production. And it will take three years to complete these three steps.
He said frankly, "There is still a distance between doing BC and doing BC well, which needs time to test." In terms of
data, according to Huatai Securities Research Report, the landing of the three mandatory national standards may promote the elimination of more than 300GW production capacity in the component sector . Even according to the most conservative calculation, all enterprises will change their production line technology to their own optimal level, but there will still be more than 150GW production capacity permanently out of the market.
In addition to the imbalance between supply and demand, the rhythm of capacity clearance is also related to many factors.
For example, due to economic and employment considerations, some local governments may give corresponding support to local enterprises with difficulties in operation to maintain their operation; while banks will also renew or extend loans to some photovoltaic enterprises to prevent the risk of a large number of non-performing assets, so as to ensure the survival of enterprises..
In addition, the rhythm of capacity clearance is also related to the rapid development of the industry in the early stage. Xu Zhenyu, chief marketing officer
of Xiexin Science and Technology, once said that "during the boom period of 2021-2024, many enterprises earned excess profits and had relatively strong operating resilience", and that "enterprises still have very optimistic expectations for the industry, so it is difficult to clear quickly in a short time".
However, in the long run, the new regulations will accelerate the clearance of backward production capacity in the industry, and boost the photovoltaic industry from scale competition to high-quality competition based on technology and energy efficiency. However, under the influence of many factors, the rhythm of industry capacity clearance may not be as rapid as imagined.
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