DBM Weekly Review: Production Reduction Is Expected to Increase, When Will Silicon Prices Rebound? (2025.5.26)(2025.5.26)

2025-05-26 11:59:48

Last week, the prices of P-type monocrystalline dense materials, N-type silicon materials and N-type granular silicon were flat and fell year on year. Polysilicon inventory is high, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and silicon material enterprises are expected to increase prices and production reduction. Photovoltaic module prices were partly flat and partly down. Downstream links have not stopped falling, and the willingness of silicon wafer and silicon material enterprises to support prices has increased. The price of upstream industrial silicon has fallen, and the contradiction between supply and demand has worsened in the wet season. Although there is a trend of price reduction in the silicon material sector, if there is no further consensus, there is still downward momentum.

I. Price Trend

of

Silicon Materials Last week, the price of P-type monocrystalline dense materials was flat on a month-on-month basis, reaching 31,000 yuan/ton, down 29.55% year on year; the price of N-type silicon materials was 38,000 yuan/ton, flat on a month-on-month basis, down 27.62% year on year; N-type granular silicon was 36,000 yuan/ton, which was flat on a month-on-month basis and decreased by 24.21% on a year-on-year basis. During the week, the overall inventory of polysilicon remained high, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises was weak, but the willingness of silicon enterprises to stand up to the price increased, and the expectation of production reduction increased.

Figure 1: Price Trend

of N-type Silicon Material Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com

Figure 2: Price Trend

of N-type Granular Silicon Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com II.

According to the data of Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.68 yuan/W last week, which was flat annually. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.69/W, flat on a month-on-month basis; the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210R PV modules was RMB0.68/W, flat on a month-on-month basis; the price index of HJT double-sided 210 PV modules was RMB0.73/W, down by 1.35% on a month-on-month basis. During

the week, the price of photovoltaic modules has been differentiated, but the price of TOPCon modules is generally stable, HJT is still falling, affected by market demand, the price is weak.

Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)

Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com

Figure 3: Trend

of Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Source: Digital New Energy DataBM

Last week, downstream silicon wafers, batteries, components and other sectors have not completely stopped falling, but the willingness of silicon wafer and silicon material enterprises to stand up has increased, and enterprises will continue to ease the downward pressure on prices by reducing production and self-discipline. From the perspective of the upstream industrial silicon sector, the price still maintains a continuous downward trend, the market pressure is great, and with the advent of the wet season, the contradiction between supply and demand or further deterioration.

Therefore, from the perspective of silicon materials, although the price of enterprises is increasing and the production reduction is expected to rise, if no further agreement is reached on the production reduction, the price of silicon materials can still be further reduced. At present, it is expected that the reduction of production will mainly stabilize prices, which is not enough to support a rebound in prices.

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Correlation

Last week, the prices of N-type silicon materials and N-type granular silicon rose annually, but the actual turnover was small and some enterprises grabbed the volume at low prices, and the price sustainability after the rise was to be determined. The price of photovoltaic modules is generally stable, and the price increase has not formed a resultant force. Although the spot price of industrial silicon has risen, it lacks support to continue to rise, and its price fluctuation will affect the cost of polysilicon. Polysilicon inventory remains high and enterprises low-load production, this continuous rise or end, future enterprises will be mainly stable prices.

2025-07-14 19:03:18

Last week, the price of N-type silicon rose slightly and the price of N-type granular silicon was flat, but the inventory of polysilicon was higher and the demand was weak. The price index of photovoltaic modules mostly fell, demand was light, and leading enterprises cut prices to inventory. The average price of industrial silicon increased due to the reduction of production by large factories, but the demand did not improve. At present, the downstream market is still reducing prices, the price of silicon wafers is down, the demand for polysilicon is affected, and the price increase last week may only rebound. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will control the low price competition of photovoltaic and promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity.

2025-07-07 13:26:20

Last week, the prices of P-type monocrystalline dense materials, N-type silicon materials and N-type granular silicon were flat and fell year on year. Futures prices rose under the rumors of industrial silicon production cuts, but spot prices did not follow up, and demand was weak. The price index of photovoltaic modules is flat, and the price of weak demand is expected to decline. Rumors of production reduction of industrial silicon enterprises in Xinjiang remain to be observed, and there is no obvious feedback from the spot market. Polysilicon inventory is high, futures have not responded to spot, although futures rebound, but it is difficult to change the supply and demand pattern, spot prices are still weak and stable.

2025-06-30 14:10:57

Last week, the prices of P-type, N-type silicon materials and N-type granular silicon fell annually, the decline was significantly larger than before, the market demand was sluggish, and the sales pressure of enterprises was high. The price index of photovoltaic modules fell partly, the market demand was low, and the price of third-tier manufacturers was significantly reduced. The market of photovoltaic main materials was under downward pressure, the transaction of industrial silicon was weak, the demand for silicon wafers did not improve, and the price of silicon materials continued to fall. Although there are rumors that the Photovoltaic Association will limit production and guarantee prices, they have been refuted, and the industry may follow the market trend in the future.

2025-06-23 15:26:43

Last week, the prices of P-type monocrystalline dense materials and N-type silicon materials fell on a month-on-month basis, while the prices of N-type granular silicon materials were flat on a month-on-month basis, the stocks of silicon materials rose, and the demand did not improve, resulting in price pressure. The price of photovoltaic modules is generally stable, but there is downward space. Although there are signs of stabilization in the upstream and downstream of polysilicon, it is fragile, the demand for industrial silicon is weak, the downstream module battery market is weak, the demand for silicon materials is insufficient and the inventory is increasing.

2025-06-16 18:14:23

Last week, the prices of P-type, N-type silicon materials and N-type granular silicon were flat and fell year-on-year. The price index of photovoltaic modules was partly flat and partly down. Recently, there are signs of stabilization in downstream battery components and silicon wafers, but the market demand is not good, the price of component collection has fallen, and the wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The inventory of silicon wafer factories and silicon material factories is high, and the downstream has the power to lower the price. Industrial silicon has not stopped falling, it is still downward in the short term, and the downward space may be narrowed in the later period. The price of silicon materials is temporarily weak and stable, and it is difficult to determine the strength of enterprises to stop production.

2025-06-09 11:30:53

Last week, the price of P-type monocrystalline dense materials was flat, while the price of N-type silicon materials and N-type granular silicon fell. Polysilicon inventory is high, downstream purchasing is light, and the price of silicon materials is still under downward pressure. The overall price of photovoltaic modules has fallen, although some leading enterprises want to raise prices, but the trend of price increase is difficult to achieve. The price of batteries has been loosened and the price of silicon wafers has stabilized. Industrial silicon has not stopped falling, the cost side of silicon materials is under pressure, the current position may further decline, but the space is limited, enterprises tend to reduce production and stabilize prices, and the short-term market is weak and stable.

2025-06-03 11:18:27

Last week, the prices of P-type monocrystalline dense materials, N-type silicon materials and N-type granular silicon were flat and fell year on year. Polysilicon inventory is high, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and silicon material enterprises are expected to increase prices and production reduction. Photovoltaic module prices were partly flat and partly down. Downstream links have not stopped falling, and the willingness of silicon wafer and silicon material enterprises to support prices has increased. The price of upstream industrial silicon has fallen, and the contradiction between supply and demand has worsened in the wet season. Although there is a trend of price reduction in the silicon material sector, if there is no further consensus, there is still downward momentum.

2025-05-26 11:59:48

According to relevant information, two cement enterprises have recently applied. Respectively: Chongqing Jinyun Cement Plant, Liquidation Group of Chongqing Jinyun Cement Plant; Chengwu County Taihong Cement Co., Ltd., Applicant: Chengwu County Taihong Cement Co., Ltd.