of
Silicon Materials Last week, the average price of N-type silicon materials was RMB 46,800/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2.52% and a year-on-year increase of 15.43%; the average price of N-type granular silicon was RMB 47,200/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 4.07% and a year-on-year increase of 25.34%. During the week, the polysilicon inventory continued to rise, the downstream market purchases were still dominated by small orders, and the market continued to be in a wait-and-see state, but the transaction price of small orders was still rising, and the quotation of enterprises was more than 50000 yuan. It is expected that it will be difficult to achieve a large number of transactions, and there is a situation of price without market.
Figure 1: Price Trend
of N-type Silicon Material Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: Price Trend
of N-type Granular Silicon Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com II.
According to the data of Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the price index of TOPCon double-sided 182 photovoltaic modules was 0.67 yuan/W last week, which was flat annually, down 12.99% year-on-year. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.68 yuan/W, which was flat, down 9.33% year-on-year, and the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.68 yuan/W, which was flat, down 11.69% year-on-year; The price index of HJT double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules was 0.72 yuan/W, down 1.37% from the previous month. During the week, the market demand for components was light, some enterprises had difficulties in trading after the price increase, and the actual price went down in disguise.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend
of Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Source: Digital New Energy DataBM
Last week, the average price of industrial silicon was weak and stable, with the average price of Si4210 industrial silicon falling to 9650 yuan/ton, down 1.28% from the previous month. The price of silicon wafers remained stable, despite the problem of insufficient demand, but the leading enterprises of silicon wafers still maintained a price posture. The price of polysilicon is also high, but after the price is substantially repaired, there is a risk of excessive speculation in the market.
Recently, data from the State Energy Administration showed that by the end of July, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power in China had reached 1109.6 GW, an increase of 50.8% over the same period last year, and the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power in the first seven months of this year had reached 223.25 GW. In July, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 11.04 GW, down 47.55% from the same period last year, and the newly installed capacity reached the lowest level in the same period in the past three years, showing a downward trend for two consecutive months. In July this year, the China Photovoltaic Association raised the new installed capacity to 270GW-300GW in the year. Calculated above the limit, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in August-December was less than 15.5G W per month, a sharp drop of 50% compared with the same period last year. However, the situation of sharp year-on-year contraction is still difficult to change, and the future demand is still significantly weaker than same period last year.
Therefore, the price trend of polysilicon in the later period will change from "selling at a price not lower than cost price" to the downstream demand and the acceptance of the price of silicon materials, overseas imports and cost changes, the acceptance of the price of silicon materials in the downstream will gradually weaken, the transmission resistance will increase, and at the same time, enterprises will be forced to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Further reduce the amount of silicon material used in a single watt cell/module. According to customs data, despite the decline in the installed capacity of new photovoltaic in July, the import of polysilicon increased against the trend, with more than 1000 tons of polysilicon imported from Germany and the United States, showing a growth trend. On the whole, under the background of price without market, the market risk of polysilicon is increasing.
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