The global photovoltaic industry is facing a historic turning point. According to the global photovoltaic market outlook report released by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) on the 16th, the new installed capacity of global photovoltaic is expected to decline in 2026 due to the adjustment of major market policies and market saturation. It would be the first annual contraction in the sector since records began in 2000. According to
the report data, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2026 is expected to be 649 GW, which is slightly lower than that in 2025 . BNEF pointed out that the growth in 2025 was the weakest in the past seven years, and the subsequent contraction marked the official entry of the industry into a low-growth phase after years of rapid expansion.
Analysts believe that although some emerging markets are expected to maintain strong growth, they are still unable to offset the market gap. Under the pressure of weakening demand prospects and "unprecedented manufacturing capacity and inventory" , the price of the industrial chain is expected to remain at a historic low until 2026. The recovery space of the industry is limited.
Industry Chain Price Pressure and High
Inventory BNEF predicts in its report that the growth rate of the US market will slow down. This expectation is mainly based on President Trump's policy orientation of restricting the deployment of renewable energy and returning to fossil fuels. In addition, mature markets such as Spain and Brazil are also showing signs of fatigue growth, with rapid capacity building leading to higher curtailment rates and lower electricity prices, triggering market uncertainty, which in turn curtails investment activities. The reversal of
supply and demand will continue to exert pressure on the price side. Prices across the entire PV industry chain will remain at historic lows until 2026 due to weak demand prospects and "unprecedented manufacturing capacity and inventory".
Take the key upstream material polysilicon as an example, the industry is facing severe challenges. While industry consolidation efforts have contributed to a 50% recovery in Chinese polysilicon prices since June, overall prices remain low.
Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, the photovoltaic industry is expected to return to the growth track as soon as 2027. The BNEF report points out that as the United States adapts to the new supply and demand environment and the expansion of new markets, the global installed capacity is expected to reach 688 gigawatts in 2027, showing a "moderate" growth trend.
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