Rystad New data provided by Energy to Photovoltaics magazine shows that the number of unsold modules in European warehouses may have more than doubled from mid-July to the end of August, possibly reaching 100G W by the end of the year.
Analyst Marius Mordal Bakke explained that the average spot price of PERC modules purchased and stocked by European dealers at $0.23/W in March is currently $0.16/W and is likely to be $0.15/W next month. The total capacity of all unsold modules stored in European warehouses has increased from about 40 GW in mid-July to about 80 GW at the end of August,
according to new data provided to PV Magazine by Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy. "In the first eight months of 2023, Europe imported around 78 GW, which is substantially more than this year's installations," said Marius Mordal Bakke, senior supply chain analyst
at Rystad Energy. "While import figures beyond August this year are not currently available, the module surplus as of August will increase to around 80 GW.". Unless we see a significant slowdown in shipments in Europe, that number could exceed 100 & nbsp; GW by the end of the year. By 2023,
he explained, Europe's utility-scale and rooftop installation share should be around 45 to 55%. "With inventory levels already high in warehouses, mainly residential and industrial and commercial, most of the new imports are likely to be used for utility-scale projects," he added. "With imports averaging around 10 GW per month from March to August this year, it is inevitable that a significant proportion of these components will end up in European warehouses."
Mordal Bakke said that while most of the stored modules will be used in rooftop PV rather than large utility projects, which typically source PV modules directly from manufacturers, the industry will see N-type modules take a larger share of the residential and industrial and commercial markets. "Perc and TOPCon average prices have seen fairly similar year-on-year declines, and the low end of European PERC prices could mean people are trying to clear inventories of P-type components that are in less demand," he said. The PERC/TOPCon ratio in European warehouses is expected to approach the N/P share of shipments by the end of the year. Photovoltaic modules purchased and stored in warehouses are losing value every day
as prices continue to fall and seem to show no signs of relief. "The average spot price today for PERC components purchased and stocked by a European distributor in March at $0.23/W is & nbsp;" $0.16/ W and probably $0.15/ W next month, which means people will have an incentive to accept a lower bid and clear their stocks before they depreciate significantly, Mordal Bakke stressed.
The analyst noted that manufacturers and distributors operating their own warehouses in Europe could be affected by price pressures. "Both are affected because they want to clear inventory before 'old' components lose too much value, and also make room for a new generation of N-type components, which are in greater demand and are quickly becoming more price-competitive than PERC," he said. "The price gap between different vendors' component products has widened recently, mainly due to different strategic choices. While some manufacturers are choosing to reduce production in the face of oversupply and falling prices, others are valuing annual shipments, lowering offers and squeezing gross margins to expand market share. Rystad Energy estimated the total value of the 40 GW of modules stored in mid-July at about 7 billion euros ( $7.3 billion),
according to a report released at the time. "At current price levels, however, the products are worth about 6 billion euros," Mordal Bakke said.
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