反垄断局点名6家水泥厂参加告诫会!水泥价格悬了?

2019-04-22 17:05:28

4月18日,国家市场监督管理总局反垄断局发文《关于召开建材领垄断行为告诫会的通知》(反垄断调查【2019】89号)。《通知》强调,近年建材领域垄断行为时有发生,召开此次告诫会的主要目的是维护经营者与消费者的合法权益。同时,《通知》点名中国建材、海螺水泥、冀东水泥、华润水泥、华新水泥、山水水泥六家水泥企业参加告诫会。此举引发行业震动,水泥价格是否悬了?

  4月18日,国家市场监督管理总局反垄断局发文《关于召开建材领垄断行为告诫会的通知》(反垄断调查【2019】89号)。《通知》强调,近年建材领域垄断行为时有发生,召开此次告诫会的主要目的是维护经营者与消费者的合法权益。同时,《通知》点名中国建材、海螺水泥、冀东水泥、华润水泥、华新水泥山水水泥六家水泥企业参加告诫会。此举引发行业震动,水泥价格是否悬了?

  从被点名的这六家水泥厂看,均位列2018年熟料产能TOP10之列,熟料产量合计占全国熟料总产量超过55%。值得注意的是,这六家水泥企业之中,市场重叠度最大的是中国建材和海螺水泥,尤其在长三角存在大量交集;在山东市场,中国建材与山水水泥交集最多;在两广市场,海螺与华润水泥交集最多。可见,反垄断局对长三角、山东、两广这些地区建材领域较为关注。与此同时,建材领垄断行为告诫会举办地点位于浙江杭州市,浙江水泥市场主要由南方水泥、海螺水泥与红狮水泥主导,不过红狮并未被点名参会,2018年数据显示,红狮水泥熟料产能位列山水水泥之前。

  表1:被点名的六家水泥企业主要省份产能重叠情况

  资料来源:中国水泥网,水泥大数据研究院

  告诫会后,水泥价格是否悬了?

  那么召开这次告诫会,是否意味着水泥价格就悬了?笔者认为,此次告诫会与国家市场监督管理总局年前确定的工作方向一致,是正常的市场监管行为。去年12月,国家市场监管总局局长张茅明确指出,2019年将聚焦公用事业、原料药、建材、日常消费品等民生领域,加大力度查处垄断协议和滥用市场支配地位行为,着力规范行政性垄断行为,公开曝光一批典型案例。建材行业也被认为是民生领域之一明确列入其中。民生不稳,天下难安。2019年是基建开始新一轮投资增速反弹之年,建材的价格影响着各项重点工程的实施预算和进度。发改委于去年和今年一季度也对水泥价格进行了调研,显示当前的水泥价格已经引发高度关注。不过,笔者认为,告诫会并不能阻挡水泥价格的正常上涨或者回调,不过对价格的调整幅度和频次将会产生重大“震慑”。

  回顾此前的2017年12月,贵州省发改委也曾组织省经信委、省住建厅及省建筑材料联合会、省水泥工业协会、省预拌混凝土行业协会和西南水泥、海螺水泥、红狮水泥、台泥水泥等一干负责人召开“水泥行业反垄断提醒告诫会”,吴波局长在会上指出协同垄断涨价和违反《价格法》低价倾销都属违法行为。2018年,贵州省又印发《贵州省2018年价格监督检查与反垄断工作要点》,明确提出,“加大市场巡查检查力度,将商品房、煤炭、水泥、高端白酒等社会关注度高的领域纳入重点监管范围,严查恶意囤积、串通涨价、散布涨价信息等扰乱市场价格秩序的行为。”贵州省有不少扶贫重点工程,水泥价格的大幅上涨对民生项目的正常推进有着重大影响。此后的2018年前三季度,贵州省水泥价格虽然也有一定程度的上涨,不过总体保持着高位平稳的走势,进入四季度至今,低迷的需求使得贵州价格出现的持续回落。

  与贵州不同,华东及中南市场企业的集中度较高,在需求相对平稳的环境下,水泥价格预计将依然维持旺季上涨淡季抗跌的走势。相比吨200元的水泥成本,当前水泥价格处于较高位置,价格的大幅调整或高频上调随时“或”引起监管层的关切。

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Correlation

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