野村证券:中国未来两年水泥需求将每年下跌7% 建议避开中国建材

2018-11-20 09:49:06

野村发表报告指,由於内地房地产行业放缓,特别是非一、二线城市,预计中国在2019年及2020年的水泥需求将每年下跌7%。至於水泥产能,因供给侧改革持续及行业自愿在今年至2020年削减产能,该行料内地在2019年及2020年的水泥产能亦将按年分别下跌3%及6%。

  野村发表报告指,由於内地房地产行业放缓,特别是非一、二线城市,预计中国在2019年及2020年的水泥需求将每年下跌7%。至於水泥产能,因供给侧改革持续及行业自愿在今年至2020年削减产能,该行料内地在2019年及2020年的水泥产能亦将按年分别下跌3%及6%。

  该行表示,看到中国水泥行业由增长型股票转为价值型股票,相信行业目前估值尚未反映盈利能力和自由现金流量的显着改善因素。行业股份方面,野村称首选为华润水泥(01313.HK),评级「买入」,目标价10.5元,此按现金流折现率作估值。预期公司将受惠於广东/广西的房地产行业势头,以及由广东基建项目带动的潜在需求上升。

  此外,该行予海螺水泥(00914.HK) 评级亦为「买入」,目标价49.8元,此按现金流折现率作估值,相当明年市账率1.8倍,野村相信公司的「T型」战略可助维持其水泥/熟料出货量增长超过行业平均水平。而野村又建议避开中国建材(03323.HK) ,评级为「减持」,目标价5元,认为公司没有显着改善其高负债比率和较重的财务成本。

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