野村证券:中国未来两年水泥需求将每年下跌7% 建议避开中国建材

2018-11-20 09:49:06

野村发表报告指,由於内地房地产行业放缓,特别是非一、二线城市,预计中国在2019年及2020年的水泥需求将每年下跌7%。至於水泥产能,因供给侧改革持续及行业自愿在今年至2020年削减产能,该行料内地在2019年及2020年的水泥产能亦将按年分别下跌3%及6%。

  野村发表报告指,由於内地房地产行业放缓,特别是非一、二线城市,预计中国在2019年及2020年的水泥需求将每年下跌7%。至於水泥产能,因供给侧改革持续及行业自愿在今年至2020年削减产能,该行料内地在2019年及2020年的水泥产能亦将按年分别下跌3%及6%。

  该行表示,看到中国水泥行业由增长型股票转为价值型股票,相信行业目前估值尚未反映盈利能力和自由现金流量的显着改善因素。行业股份方面,野村称首选为华润水泥(01313.HK),评级「买入」,目标价10.5元,此按现金流折现率作估值。预期公司将受惠於广东/广西的房地产行业势头,以及由广东基建项目带动的潜在需求上升。

  此外,该行予海螺水泥(00914.HK) 评级亦为「买入」,目标价49.8元,此按现金流折现率作估值,相当明年市账率1.8倍,野村相信公司的「T型」战略可助维持其水泥/熟料出货量增长超过行业平均水平。而野村又建议避开中国建材(03323.HK) ,评级为「减持」,目标价5元,认为公司没有显着改善其高负债比率和较重的财务成本。

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

On October 24, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" was held in Wuhu, Anhui Province. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of Chinese Academy of Environmental Sciences, Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology, Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Century Xinfeng, Hubei, Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center.

2024-10-24 16:55:38

According to incomplete statistics, there are about 33 listed companies developing commercial mixing business in A-share motherboard, Hong Kong stock and Taiwan stock, of which 9 companies take commercial mixing as their main business.

2024-09-10 17:04:29

From the overall situation, in the first half of 2024, the overall operating situation of the cement industry was grim, and the profits of cement enterprises basically declined sharply, and even some enterprises suffered huge losses. In terms of the operation and management of Conch Cement, the Group will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, and continue to improve the quality and efficiency of its operation in line with the guidance of national policies. Huaxin Cement said that it demonstrated the sense of responsibility of large enterprises and actively promoted and implemented new supply-side structural reform programs and measures suitable for the high-quality development of the industry.

2024-09-03 09:43:58

Relevant data show that the industry lost about 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with sales falling by 11%. Conch Cement: In the first half of the year, the Company achieved an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Tapai Group: achieved operating income of RMB1.976 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB226 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of cement sales, the demand side will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the price side is expected to continue to repair.

2024-08-30 10:06:24

Northeast China is implementing the policy of off-peak kiln shutdown in August according to the established plan. In this context, cement manufacturers have no plans to further raise prices, so the market quotation remains stable. However, the demand for cement in Liaoning has been reduced due to frequent precipitation in the rainy season recently. Although the cement price of large factories is still at a high level, the overall demand is low, which may have a volatile impact on future prices.

2024-08-09 16:45:29

In this case, for cement enterprises, new clinker projects should be carefully considered!

2024-08-07 09:33:39

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

The serious decline in demand, coupled with the fierce market competition, the low opening and low going of cement prices, continued to bottom out, and the loss of the industry expanded. The loss of the industry in the first quarter exceeded that of 2016, and the pressure of enterprise operation was unprecedented.

2024-05-31 14:35:19

According to the incomplete statistics of China Cement Network, there are about 24 companies with aggregate business in A-share motherboard and Hong Kong listed companies, of which 16 listed companies disclose specific aggregate income..

2024-05-28 16:59:57

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

According to incomplete statistics, there are about 34 listed companies developing commercial mixing business in A-share motherboard, Hong Kong stock and Taiwan stock, of which 8 companies take commercial mixing as their main business.

2024-05-21 17:09:01

Layoffs reduce costs, but can they really increase efficiency?

2024-05-15 14:41:02

If 40% of alternative fuels are used in cement production, about 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide will be saved for every 1 million tons of clinker produced.

2024-05-10 09:27:37

Sales of cement, clinker, concrete and aggregate in the first quarter of China Resources Building Materials Technology increased. Among them, the total sales volume of cement clinker is about 1303 The sales volume of concrete was 2.3 million cubic meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.16%, and the sales volume of aggregate was 14.16 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 169.5%.

2024-05-07 14:53:43

In the first quarter of 2024, the industry as a whole showed the operational characteristics of "shrinking demand, fierce competition, high inventory and low price".

2024-05-07 09:20:19

In 2024, with the further decline of cement demand, it remains to be seen how the market share of cement enterprises will change.

2024-04-28 09:07:08

In 2024, what are the development plans and layouts of the major cement enterprises in the market? According to the annual report of the enterprise, the following are arranged..

2024-04-03 13:45:12

At present, the cement industry is facing serious internal and external troubles, which can be said to be "the autumn of life and death".

2024-04-02 17:13:02

Under the background of such a complex and severe cement market, how can the cement industry survive and develop next? The participants had a heated discussion.

2024-03-28 21:39:54

Enterprises with strong competitiveness and rapid response to the external environment can win the future.

2024-03-19 15:10:10

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, the market demand in Jiangsu has recovered recently, and some major manufacturers in Yancheng have pushed up the price of cement by 10 yuan/ton since the 14th.

2024-03-15 16:03:55

It is expected that new production capacity will be put into operation in 2024. Although the implementation of off-peak production will be strengthened, the weak demand pattern will not change, the high inventory state of the industry is likely to continue, the cement price is likely to continue to show a bottom shock trend, and the overall pressure of enterprises is still high.

2024-03-07 10:32:04

The author believes that in the short term, the cement industry is still indispensable to the "bloody" "real gun combat", but after the "actual combat" industry, who can be called a winner?

2024-03-06 15:32:49

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the price of raw materials has risen recently, the cost of cement production has risen, and the price of cement in the local market of Guangdong and Guangxi has increased by 15 yuan/ton, which remains to be observed. Prices in the two lakes, Henan and other markets fluctuated little during the week.

2024-03-01 17:28:38

China Resources Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd. held the 2024 Working Conference of "Opening the New Situation" in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province.

2024-03-01 10:13:56

On March 28-29, China Cement Network will hold the "13th China Cement Industry Summit and TOP100 Award Ceremony" in Hangzhou. During the conference, awards will be given to the top 100 cement and supplier enterprises. At the same time, experts and scholars, China Railway and other construction units will be invited to discuss the new development trend of the cement industry in the future, and work together to create the future!

2024-02-27 09:41:58

Opening up a new track has become the same choice for many cement enterprises.

2024-01-31 09:04:18

In 2023, the Guangdong market was "full of disputes" and "fierce fighting".

2024-01-18 13:22:48

According to the cement network market data center news, in mid-December, some major enterprises in Guanzhong area of Shaanxi notified to raise the cement price by 40 yuan/ton. Recently, according to market feedback, the mainstream of this push up is 10-20 yuan/ton.

2024-01-12 17:31:44

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the price of cement in East China has generally declined this week. The actual transaction price of cement in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui has fallen by about 10-20 yuan/ton, the price of cement in Shandong has fallen by about 20 yuan, and the price in Fujian has been stable in the week.

2024-01-05 17:23:21

The market is stable, Henan fell more than 5%; "2023 Top 100 List of China's Cement Clinker Production Capacity" was released; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced 27 industry standards related to cement, sand and concrete!

2024-01-02 15:02:03

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,周内两湖地区市场需求销量下滑,部分市场水泥价格下跌20-30元/吨左右,两广地区行情平稳运行。

2023-12-29 16:59:49

水泥行业应认清形势变化,捕捉低碳大势带来的商业模式变革机会。

2023-12-29 15:02:54

作为行业龙头,大型水泥企业肩负着引领行业方向、推动行业进步的责任。面临“需求下滑、效益萎缩、产能过剩”等行业困局,水泥巨头们又是如何“出招”的呢?

2023-12-29 14:53:53

难关未过,未来已来。接下来,让我们一起回顾2023年水泥行业热点事件,总结过往,戮力前行。

2023-12-28 11:49:29

广东珠三角、云南多地及贵州毕节地区水泥价格上调;四川等地公布2024年错峰生产计划;福建五家水泥企业获得中央大气污染防治资金;华润水泥福州公司股权成功拍出;甘肃积石山县发生6.2级地震对当地水泥企业影响不大。

2023-12-19 14:49:50

据中国水泥网行情数据消息,京津、内蒙古地区市场无明显变化。

2023-12-08 18:05:08

云南、贵州、河北水泥市场动态;海螺集团与隆基绿能签约;华润水泥控股改名

2023-12-06 14:45:27

中国水泥网召开“第五届中国水泥智能化高峰论坛”。

2023-12-06 10:28:44

水泥市场震荡上涨;水泥行业专属对话大模型ChatCEM即将上线;撤销!海螺水泥多个新建熟料线项目何去何从

2023-12-05 15:44:14

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,陕西西安、咸阳、铜川、渭南等关中地区一些主要企业通知上调水泥价格50元/吨,省内其余市场水泥价格暂稳。

2023-12-01 16:17:08