On December 21, the two stock indexes bottomed out in the morning and rose in the afternoon. The Shenzhen Component Index and the GEM Index rose by more than 1%, and the Beijing Securities 50 Index plunged sharply. The turnover of the two markets was enlarged, and the northbound capital showed a trend of inflow.
Industry sectors rose more or less, photovoltaic equipment, wine-making industry, games, textiles and clothing, decoration building materials, power equipment sectors rose the most, instrumentation, automotive services, non-metallic materials, professional services sectors fell the most.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently publicly solicited opinions on the Comprehensive Standardization Technology System for Solar Photovoltaic Industry (2023 Edition) (draft for comments). Several photovoltaic industry chain enterprises said that the draft is conducive to accelerating the standardization process of upstream and downstream industry chains and promoting the healthy development of the industry.
In addition, the back-contact crystalline silicon heterojunction solar cell (HBC) independently developed by Longji Green Energy has achieved a conversion efficiency of 27.09% by using the all-laser patterning mass-production process, creating a new world record for the efficiency of monocrystalline silicon solar cells. This is another breakthrough after Longji Green Energy set a world record of 26.81% efficiency of silicon solar cells in November 2022. Haitong Securities said that the photovoltaic sector has fully responded to the possible intensification of competition in the industry, and the future growth of the industry is sustainable; Xingye Securities pointed out that the supply structure of the photovoltaic industry has been upgraded, waiting for the sun to be seen; Central China Securities believes that the valuation of the photovoltaic industry is at a historically low level, with little downward space.
Haitong Securities: The future growth of the PV industry is sustainable
. The PV sector has been continuously adjusted since the beginning of the year, and has fully responded to the possible intensification of competition in the industry. The current valuation level is lower than trough in 2018; This year, the price of photovoltaic industry chain has dropped significantly, which helps to improve the yield of photovoltaic power generation , has a significant stimulating effect on terminal demand, and the future growth of the industry is sustainable.
Pacific Ocean: The quotation of PV industry chain is expected to accelerate to the bottom
. In 2023, the quotation of PV industry chain will decline rapidly, and the profit of industry chain will be squeezed rapidly. Under the simultaneous influence of policy and rate of return, it is expected that most of the capacity planning that has not yet been implemented will be postponed or cancelled, and the growth rate of supply side will gradually slow down. With the sustained high growth rate on the demand side, the supply and demand situation is expected to continue to improve. At the same time, as the industrial chain quotation approaches the cost line, the quotation game has entered the second half, and the industrial chain quotation is expected to accelerate to the bottom.
Capital Securities: The price of the PV industry chain continues to seek the bottom
. With the subsequent release of polysilicon production capacity, it is expected that the price of the industry chain will continue to fall slightly. The stock price performance of the photovoltaic sector reflects the market's concern about the competition pattern, maintaining the judgment that "the supply side of the photovoltaic industry is undergoing marginal changes". With the "rebalancing" of the price system of the relevant industrial chain, it is expected that the valuation of the relevant companies will stabilize; At the same time, the establishment of coal-fired power capacity price mechanism and the recovery of part or all of the fixed costs through capacity price can increase the green power consumption and grid stability, and provide strong support for carrying larger-scale new energy. Pay close attention to the price changes of the main photovoltaic industry chain. It is suggested to pay attention to Invik, Terrade and Haixing Electric Power.
Industrial Securities: The upgrade of the supply structure of the PV industry is waiting for the downward trend of
component prices to drive the increase of the IRR of power plant investment, the change of the installed demand structure, and the outbreak of the installed capacity of ground power plants. Since 2023, with the release of upstream silicon production capacity, the price of the whole photovoltaic industry chain has been rapidly reduced, and the price of components has dropped by more than 45% from the beginning of the year to the present. At the same time, with other conditions unchanged, the return on investment of photovoltaic downstream power plants has increased significantly, and the demand for domestic ground power plants and industrial and commercial installed capacity has exploded under low-cost components. It is expected that the proportion of installed capacity of ground power plants will continue to rise in 2024.
Central China Securities: The valuation of the PV industry is at a low level
. It is expected that the demand growth of the PV industry will slow down in 2024, and the industry will enter the shuffling stage. Capacity clearance at the market level will be a process, and we still need to wait for the industry to eliminate backward production capacity and go up again. The valuation of photovoltaic industry is at a historically low level, and there is little downward space. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the leading enterprises at the manufacturing end and the field of technological innovation. Specifically, leading enterprises in the fields of TOPCon battery industry chain, photovoltaic glass and perovskite batteries are suggested to pay attention to Jingke Energy, Junda Stock and Daquan Energy.
Sinolink Securities: The PV industry has shown an obvious trend
of supply-side improvement. Under the combined effect of the macro factors of market financing regulation, as well as the meso factors such as industrial cycle, external resources and capital market sentiment, the PV industry has shown an increasingly obvious trend of supply-side improvement. Recent events such as the emergence of dynamic turning point in the price of the industrial chain, the sharp decline in the position of Q3 institutions, and the performance of leading companies in Q3 exceeding expectations to verify the ability of alpha will work together with the expected improvement of the above-mentioned supply side to drive the market to rebound thoroughly and continue to rebound. Under the current level of plate valuation, expectation and institutional position, the expected upward revision of any link in volume, profit or PE is enough to drive a considerable increase in stock prices, and even bring about periodic double clicks.
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