[专题]:2022年水泥市场运行分析与后市展望

2022-12-26 15:33:31

2022年,水泥行业遇到了前所未有的困难,一季度下游施工偏慢,需求恢复不及同期,进入二季度后,疫情强势反弹,需求陷入停滞状态,三季度极端天气干扰,下游施工偏弱运行,四季度旺季落空,需求持续走弱。总的来看,2022年水泥价格震荡走低,水泥产量创下近年新低,同时由于煤炭均价达到历史高位,水泥行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2023年,我们认为,地产对水泥需求拖累因素仍在,水泥产量或将继续下降,需求走弱下水泥价格中枢下移,高成本时代下水泥行业效益难言乐观。

2022年,水泥行业遇到了前所未有的困难,一季度下游施工偏慢,需求恢复不及同期,进入二季度后,疫情强势反弹,需求陷入停滞状态,三季度极端天气干扰,下游施工偏弱运行,四季度旺季落空,需求持续走弱。总的来看,2022年水泥价格震荡走低,水泥产量创下近年新低,同时由于煤炭均价达到历史高位,水泥行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2023年,我们认为,地产对水泥需求拖累因素仍在,水泥产量或将继续下降,需求走弱下水泥价格中枢下移,高成本时代下水泥行业效益难言乐观。


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Correlation

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

In the first half of the year, China's cement output fell by 10% year-on-year, the price of P.O42.5 bulk cement fell by 18% year-on-year, both volume and price fell, and the whole industry lost money in the first half of the year, which was rare in history. Similar to the decline in domestic cement demand, cement demand in neighboring South Korea has also fallen sharply this year, but the price performance has been unusually strong. Facing the same decline in demand and overcapacity, why are the prices of the two countries different?

2024-09-18 11:46:02

From the overall situation, in the first half of 2024, the overall operating situation of the cement industry was grim, and the profits of cement enterprises basically declined sharply, and even some enterprises suffered huge losses. In terms of the operation and management of Conch Cement, the Group will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, and continue to improve the quality and efficiency of its operation in line with the guidance of national policies. Huaxin Cement said that it demonstrated the sense of responsibility of large enterprises and actively promoted and implemented new supply-side structural reform programs and measures suitable for the high-quality development of the industry.

2024-09-03 09:43:58

Seeing the title, some people are sure to say: "This is not true. A few years ago, everyone in the cement industry ushered in six years of good times in the process of sharing happiness." Is this really the case? As a typical cyclical industry, the development of cement industry is full of ups and downs. From the past experience, when the industry encounters a low ebb, it is easier for enterprises to form a consensus and deal with challenges together; however, after the industry recovers, it is difficult to maintain this spirit of unity.

2024-08-20 16:27:06

This lack of demand is the general trend of the economic cycle, which is irreversible in the short term. It is determined by the economic development cycle and is a problem in the process of development and transformation. The disorderly competition among enterprises leads to the meager profits of the whole industry. Therefore, we need to take the initiative to respond, maintain strategic strength, strengthen confidence in development, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, and jointly promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry.

2024-08-16 09:09:17

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

We should strengthen industry communication and enterprise dialogue, abandon the Cold War mentality, not vicious competition, not "cheap" products, not "involution" marketing, consciously resist the use of low-price dumping, loss-making sales and other improper means, jointly create a fair and stable market environment and competition order, build a good industry ecology, and reduce waste of resources and environmental pressure.

2024-08-12 11:33:12

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

Ultra-low emission has become the legal responsibility of every cement enterprise in Zhejiang, rather than the encouragement orientation like other regions in China.

2024-07-23 14:43:18

Improve the position and look at the steady growth with the interests of the whole industry as the most important.

2024-06-26 15:44:51

According to China Cement Market Data Center, this week, the current round of kiln shutdown in Northeast China is coming to an end. Since April, leading enterprises have repeatedly pushed up prices, making cement prices in the region currently at the leading level in the country.

2024-06-14 17:27:12

The serious decline in demand, coupled with the fierce market competition, the low opening and low going of cement prices, continued to bottom out, and the loss of the industry expanded. The loss of the industry in the first quarter exceeded that of 2016, and the pressure of enterprise operation was unprecedented.

2024-05-31 14:35:19

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

In fact, I have no secret to do business, if I have to say, I would like to talk about the three basic points of my business: learning, innovation and responsibility. It is these three basic points that make me stick to the enterprise and make some achievements.

2024-05-22 13:16:41

In Zhou Shanjian's view, as a resource-intensive product, cement's consumption of natural resources and energy should be transformed into equivalent economic and social values to maximize the value of resource utilization.

2024-05-17 13:55:14

Disorderly competition will only lead to low-price competition, widespread losses, and "no food to eat when the table is lifted".

2024-04-18 16:59:35

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

As the main body of the market, enterprises will give answers with their own practical actions.

2024-04-10 13:03:13

The cement industry must wake up quickly, abandon unrealistic illusions contrary to the law of market development, and take a more positive attitude to deal with the reality of overcapacity and intensified market competition.

2024-04-08 09:33:02

The key to determine the efficiency of the industry is the supply structure and enterprise behavior.

2024-04-07 16:00:37

According to the annual report of Jinyu Group in 2023, the company's operating income was about 107.956 billion yuan, an increase of 4.99% over the previous year, but the net profit returned to the mother dropped by 97.92% to about 25.2628 million yuan, and the loss of non-net profit deducted expanded to 2.028 billion yuan. The decline in performance is mainly related to the large provision for impairment of assets, especially the inventory impairment of real estate projects. The decline in investment in real estate development across the country has affected the company's real estate development business. Cement production reached a new low, and the company's comprehensive sales of cement and clinker increased, but the gross profit margin decreased. In order to seek new markets, BBMG Group invested in the home and promoted the growth of the whole business. Faced with greater debt pressure, the company plans to optimize the debt structure by issuing debt financing instruments, and use idle funds to invest in financial management to improve capital efficiency.

2024-04-03 09:25:12

At present, the cement industry is facing serious internal and external troubles, which can be said to be "the autumn of life and death".

2024-04-02 17:13:02

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

It is highly probable that demand will fall to less than 1 billion tons in 10 years!

2024-03-25 09:31:24

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

2024-03-18 13:43:28

In 2024, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cement industry is becoming more and more serious, and the battle of "grabbing share" among major cement enterprises is imminent, and the national situation is more complex and pessimistic.

2024-03-13 09:15:24

In the course of the prosperity of China's cement industry, Jidong Equipment has contributed a lot.

2024-03-13 09:10:04

Zhang Xiaohua emphasized that although it is difficult to promote peak-staggering production and its effectiveness is weakened, it is still an effective way for the cement industry to adjust the supply-demand relationship and achieve win-win situation for large and small enterprises in the short term.

2024-03-11 16:07:55

The author believes that in the short term, the cement industry is still indispensable to the "bloody" "real gun combat", but after the "actual combat" industry, who can be called a winner?

2024-03-06 15:32:49

China Resources Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd. held the 2024 Working Conference of "Opening the New Situation" in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province.

2024-03-01 10:13:56

Southwest Xingyi, Guizhou will face difficulties and challenges directly, focus on practicing internal skills, go all out to create pioneers and achievements in a more full state of mind, make steady progress, grasp achievements, and build an iron army to create benefits.

2024-02-27 16:44:15

Although the company suffered losses in the context of the sharp decline in the operating performance of the whole industry, the operating cash flow in the first three quarters was basically flat compared with the previous year, maintaining financial stability and ensuring the potential for development.

2024-02-05 09:23:30

Can the supply and demand of cement industry improve in 2024? Can prices be boosted? How will enterprises break the situation?

2024-01-23 09:30:22

Top Ten Forecasts of Cement Industry in 2024

2024-01-23 09:17:18

The 2024 Working Conference of China Building Material Group and New Tianshan Cement was successfully concluded, summarizing the past and looking forward to the future. The regional companies affiliated to New Tianshan Cement earnestly implement the spirit of the annual meeting of the superior companies, hold working meetings to summarize the deployment work, unify ideas, clarify objectives, and go all out to do a good job in 2024.

2024-01-19 17:02:30

The price of cement in Chongqing has dropped; the cement industry will be in a difficult period in the next ten years; "rigid capacity reduction" is the feasible solution to resolve overcapacity.

2024-01-12 14:45:33

Recently, the cement network APP video number carried out the online live broadcast of "Sharing Hui Building Materials Observation", and Li Kunming, an analyst of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, looked forward to the cement industry in 2024.

2024-01-12 12:10:02

Cement market price shocks; Zhang Xiaohua: "Rational capacity reduction" is an important strategy for the cement industry to get out of the predicament; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the list of typical application scenarios and cases of industrial green microgrid in 2023.

2024-01-04 13:09:03

In the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the cement industry should focus on strengthening energy conservation, carbon reduction and emission reduction, and must strengthen confidence. In the first half of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the expected reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP, the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP, and the ratio of days with good air quality in cities at prefecture level and above have been completed.

2024-01-02 14:18:21

作为行业龙头,大型水泥企业肩负着引领行业方向、推动行业进步的责任。面临“需求下滑、效益萎缩、产能过剩”等行业困局,水泥巨头们又是如何“出招”的呢?

2023-12-29 14:53:53

难关未过,未来已来。接下来,让我们一起回顾2023年水泥行业热点事件,总结过往,戮力前行。

2023-12-28 11:49:29

水泥价格持续走低;水泥企业多个光伏项目迎新进展;天瑞集团“水泥生产工业大脑”入选2023年先进计算典型应用案例名单

2023-12-25 14:17:13

2023年,受房地产持续调整等影响,水泥行业发展景气度继续下降。一季度下游复工情况尚佳,整体需求好于同期;二、三季度“旺季不旺、淡季更淡”,需求减弱明显,加之市场竞争激烈,水泥价格持续走低;四季度需求弱势恢复,水泥价格小幅上涨。总体来看,2023年水泥产量创下近13年新低,尽管煤价重心有所下移,但水泥价格降幅较深,行业利润大幅萎缩。展望2024年,我们认为地产对水泥需求拖累减弱,水泥产量或将小幅下降,产能过剩压力下水泥价格中枢下移,行业效益难言乐观。

2023-12-22 17:20:42

2023年,下游终端市场仍然面临资金偏紧的局面,多数区域施工增量不及预期,加之上游企业竞争加剧,成本端支撑乏力,混凝土行业易跌难涨,效益进一步走弱……

2023-12-21 09:21:01

水泥企业聚焦数字化、智能化转型,练好内功、提升自身综合竞争力的同时,亦对外部市场环境颇为关注。

2023-12-01 09:16:04

展望未来,李坤明预计,2023年至2025年,水泥需求降幅平均每年在2%-3%之间,2025年或将打破平台期。

2023-11-30 15:49:06

水泥企业应重视粉磨技术研究。粉磨系统作为水泥生产链中的“耗电大户”,在整个水泥生产工序中耗电占比超过60%,其能耗高、效率低,一直是水泥行业节能降耗的痛点。

2023-11-21 09:28:39

In order to survive and develop in the fierce market competition, cement enterprises must abandon the illusion of relying on others to "give" opportunities, and win the recognition and respect of the market through self-innovation and promotion.