2021年三季度水泥市场运行与后市展望

2021-10-29 09:18:31

水泥工业方面,上半年供需两旺,整体延续较高景气度,三季度7、8月份进入传统淡季量价齐降,9月份受限电限产影响供应大幅收缩,叠加需求有所走好,水泥价格创出历史新高,但由于煤价成本居高不下,行业效益仍将出现一定下滑。

前三季度总结:

2021年上半年,我国政府科学统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展,疫情防控取得基本胜利,经济稳定复苏并持续向好,进入三季度,在疫情零星复现、洪涝灾害频发和限电限产工业生产受限影响下,宏观经济下行压力加大,前三季度实现GDP同比增长9.8%,两年平均增长5.2%,第三季度GDP增速4.9%,两年平均增长4.9%,季度调整后环比微增0.2%。水泥工业方面,上半年供需两旺,整体延续较高景气度,三季度7、8月份进入传统淡季量价齐降,9月份受限电限产影响供应大幅收缩,叠加需求有所走好,水泥价格创出历史新高,但由于煤价成本居高不下,行业效益仍将出现一定下滑。

1、地产投资增速高位,水泥产量稳定增长。2021年1-9月固定资产投资(不含农户)完成额增速7.3%,其中房地产投资增速8.8%,基建投资增速1.5%,1-9月固定资产投资中地产表现优于基建,成为水泥需求主要驱动力量。2021年前三季度,水泥产量177770万吨,同比增长5.3%。

2、熟料供应持续压减,落后产能加快退出。据水泥大数据研究院追踪,上半年新投熟料产能相对平稳,新投产能2399万吨,较去年略有增加,但“双碳”背景下,落后产能加快退出,供应持续出现收缩。

3、水泥价格V型反转,创出历史最高纪录。上半年水泥行业经过1-3月淡季后,水泥需求在4、5月份达到阶段性高点,随后进入6、7月份淡季价格一路下探,8月初企稳后出现稳定反弹,9月份受“能耗双控”影响多地限电限产,供应大幅收缩,水泥价格一路暴涨,走出历史新高,9月末全国水泥平均价格604.6元/吨,较2020年同期444.3元/吨大幅上涨160.4元/吨,涨幅36.1%。

4、成本大幅飙升,效益出现下滑。2021年前三季度动力煤价格震荡走高,特别是第三季度煤价加速上涨,水泥企业利润承压下滑。9月末动力煤现货价1710.0元/吨,较去年同期611.3元/吨暴涨179.8%,预计前三季度规模以上水泥企业利润总额1083.3亿元,同比下降16.0%。

第四季度展望:

1、基建投资偏弱,需求不及同期。9月份各项经济数据来看四季度经济下行压力较大,稳增长诉求较高,专项债发行节奏会有所加快,但债务监管下预计增量有限,基建投资存在一定发挥空间,预计整体幅度有限,水泥需求支撑强度或不及同期。

2、错峰力度升级,供应或有减少。进入10月份天气渐冷,部分北方地区提前入冬,北方地区下游需求可能提前见顶,多数企业执行错峰停窑力度有所加强,同时“能耗双控”政策尚未明显放松,叠加产能置换仍在进行,预计整体供应则会出现一定减少。

3、涨幅空间有限,价格维持高位。目前水泥价格已达历史新高,透支部分旺季需求,下游施工企业对高价水泥出现一定抵触心理,同时限电政策有所放松,下游需求尚未明显走旺,旺季不旺形势下水泥价格上涨动力边际走弱,但10、11月下游需求仍有一定支撑,叠加供应收缩,预计四季度水泥价格涨幅空间有限,高位维持概率较大。

4、煤价跌幅有限,利润仍将承压。步入10月份后,北方提前入冬,电厂积极进行冬储,近日国家发改委联合多部门出击“组合拳”,严厉遏制煤价非理性上涨,促进煤价回归理性状态,但库存偏低背景下,煤价不存在深跌基础,预计四季度煤价跌幅有限,仍保持高位,水泥企业生产成本有所好转,但整体压力仍存,预计2021年全年利润总额1600亿元,同比下降11%左右。

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Correlation

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

As of September 2024, the proportion of healthy enterprises in the ready-mixed concrete industry has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 92.9% compared with 2022; the proportion of dishonest enterprises has increased from 5.0% to 6.1%; the proportion of bankruptcy reorganization enterprises has increased from 0.8% to 1.0%..

2024-09-25 09:21:01

The cement industry has been clearly included in the carbon emissions trading market in 2024. Cement enterprises need to comprehensively and accurately understand the relevant regulations and guidelines. According to the actual situation of the enterprises themselves, they should seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, turn inward, practice hard, continuously reduce their carbon emissions per ton of clinker, reduce the production cost of clinker, and win in the current industry trend. So that their enterprises can survive and develop better.

2024-09-25 09:05:05

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

In the first half of the year, China's cement output fell by 10% year-on-year, the price of P.O42.5 bulk cement fell by 18% year-on-year, both volume and price fell, and the whole industry lost money in the first half of the year, which was rare in history. Similar to the decline in domestic cement demand, cement demand in neighboring South Korea has also fallen sharply this year, but the price performance has been unusually strong. Facing the same decline in demand and overcapacity, why are the prices of the two countries different?

2024-09-18 11:46:02

From the overall situation, in the first half of 2024, the overall operating situation of the cement industry was grim, and the profits of cement enterprises basically declined sharply, and even some enterprises suffered huge losses. In terms of the operation and management of Conch Cement, the Group will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, and continue to improve the quality and efficiency of its operation in line with the guidance of national policies. Huaxin Cement said that it demonstrated the sense of responsibility of large enterprises and actively promoted and implemented new supply-side structural reform programs and measures suitable for the high-quality development of the industry.

2024-09-03 09:43:58

Seeing the title, some people are sure to say: "This is not true. A few years ago, everyone in the cement industry ushered in six years of good times in the process of sharing happiness." Is this really the case? As a typical cyclical industry, the development of cement industry is full of ups and downs. From the past experience, when the industry encounters a low ebb, it is easier for enterprises to form a consensus and deal with challenges together; however, after the industry recovers, it is difficult to maintain this spirit of unity.

2024-08-20 16:27:06

This lack of demand is the general trend of the economic cycle, which is irreversible in the short term. It is determined by the economic development cycle and is a problem in the process of development and transformation. The disorderly competition among enterprises leads to the meager profits of the whole industry. Therefore, we need to take the initiative to respond, maintain strategic strength, strengthen confidence in development, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, and jointly promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry.

2024-08-16 09:09:17

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

We should strengthen industry communication and enterprise dialogue, abandon the Cold War mentality, not vicious competition, not "cheap" products, not "involution" marketing, consciously resist the use of low-price dumping, loss-making sales and other improper means, jointly create a fair and stable market environment and competition order, build a good industry ecology, and reduce waste of resources and environmental pressure.

2024-08-12 11:33:12

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

Ultra-low emission has become the legal responsibility of every cement enterprise in Zhejiang, rather than the encouragement orientation like other regions in China.

2024-07-23 14:43:18

Improve the position and look at the steady growth with the interests of the whole industry as the most important.

2024-06-26 15:44:51

According to China Cement Market Data Center, this week, the current round of kiln shutdown in Northeast China is coming to an end. Since April, leading enterprises have repeatedly pushed up prices, making cement prices in the region currently at the leading level in the country.

2024-06-14 17:27:12

The serious decline in demand, coupled with the fierce market competition, the low opening and low going of cement prices, continued to bottom out, and the loss of the industry expanded. The loss of the industry in the first quarter exceeded that of 2016, and the pressure of enterprise operation was unprecedented.

2024-05-31 14:35:19

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

In fact, I have no secret to do business, if I have to say, I would like to talk about the three basic points of my business: learning, innovation and responsibility. It is these three basic points that make me stick to the enterprise and make some achievements.

2024-05-22 13:16:41

In Zhou Shanjian's view, as a resource-intensive product, cement's consumption of natural resources and energy should be transformed into equivalent economic and social values to maximize the value of resource utilization.

2024-05-17 13:55:14

Disorderly competition will only lead to low-price competition, widespread losses, and "no food to eat when the table is lifted".

2024-04-18 16:59:35

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

As the main body of the market, enterprises will give answers with their own practical actions.

2024-04-10 13:03:13

The cement industry must wake up quickly, abandon unrealistic illusions contrary to the law of market development, and take a more positive attitude to deal with the reality of overcapacity and intensified market competition.

2024-04-08 09:33:02

The key to determine the efficiency of the industry is the supply structure and enterprise behavior.

2024-04-07 16:00:37

According to the annual report of Jinyu Group in 2023, the company's operating income was about 107.956 billion yuan, an increase of 4.99% over the previous year, but the net profit returned to the mother dropped by 97.92% to about 25.2628 million yuan, and the loss of non-net profit deducted expanded to 2.028 billion yuan. The decline in performance is mainly related to the large provision for impairment of assets, especially the inventory impairment of real estate projects. The decline in investment in real estate development across the country has affected the company's real estate development business. Cement production reached a new low, and the company's comprehensive sales of cement and clinker increased, but the gross profit margin decreased. In order to seek new markets, BBMG Group invested in the home and promoted the growth of the whole business. Faced with greater debt pressure, the company plans to optimize the debt structure by issuing debt financing instruments, and use idle funds to invest in financial management to improve capital efficiency.

2024-04-03 09:25:12

At present, the cement industry is facing serious internal and external troubles, which can be said to be "the autumn of life and death".

2024-04-02 17:13:02

On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

It is highly probable that demand will fall to less than 1 billion tons in 10 years!

2024-03-25 09:31:24

Cement demand in 2024 is expected to continue the trend of the previous two years and continue to decrease. The downstream of cement is mainly divided into three parts: infrastructure, real estate and new rural construction. It is expected that the demand for infrastructure and rural market will remain stable. The key is whether the growth rate of real estate investment can stabilize and rebound, thus supporting the demand for cement.

2024-03-18 13:43:28

In 2024, the contradiction between supply and demand in the cement industry is becoming more and more serious, and the battle of "grabbing share" among major cement enterprises is imminent, and the national situation is more complex and pessimistic.

2024-03-13 09:15:24

In the course of the prosperity of China's cement industry, Jidong Equipment has contributed a lot.

2024-03-13 09:10:04

Zhang Xiaohua emphasized that although it is difficult to promote peak-staggering production and its effectiveness is weakened, it is still an effective way for the cement industry to adjust the supply-demand relationship and achieve win-win situation for large and small enterprises in the short term.

2024-03-11 16:07:55

The author believes that in the short term, the cement industry is still indispensable to the "bloody" "real gun combat", but after the "actual combat" industry, who can be called a winner?

2024-03-06 15:32:49

China Resources Building Materials Technology Co., Ltd. held the 2024 Working Conference of "Opening the New Situation" in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province.

2024-03-01 10:13:56

Southwest Xingyi, Guizhou will face difficulties and challenges directly, focus on practicing internal skills, go all out to create pioneers and achievements in a more full state of mind, make steady progress, grasp achievements, and build an iron army to create benefits.

2024-02-27 16:44:15

Although the company suffered losses in the context of the sharp decline in the operating performance of the whole industry, the operating cash flow in the first three quarters was basically flat compared with the previous year, maintaining financial stability and ensuring the potential for development.

2024-02-05 09:23:30

Can the supply and demand of cement industry improve in 2024? Can prices be boosted? How will enterprises break the situation?

2024-01-23 09:30:22

Top Ten Forecasts of Cement Industry in 2024

2024-01-23 09:17:18

The 2024 Working Conference of China Building Material Group and New Tianshan Cement was successfully concluded, summarizing the past and looking forward to the future. The regional companies affiliated to New Tianshan Cement earnestly implement the spirit of the annual meeting of the superior companies, hold working meetings to summarize the deployment work, unify ideas, clarify objectives, and go all out to do a good job in 2024.

2024-01-19 17:02:30

The price of cement in Chongqing has dropped; the cement industry will be in a difficult period in the next ten years; "rigid capacity reduction" is the feasible solution to resolve overcapacity.

2024-01-12 14:45:33

Recently, the cement network APP video number carried out the online live broadcast of "Sharing Hui Building Materials Observation", and Li Kunming, an analyst of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, looked forward to the cement industry in 2024.

2024-01-12 12:10:02

Cement market price shocks; Zhang Xiaohua: "Rational capacity reduction" is an important strategy for the cement industry to get out of the predicament; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the list of typical application scenarios and cases of industrial green microgrid in 2023.

2024-01-04 13:09:03

In the second half of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the cement industry should focus on strengthening energy conservation, carbon reduction and emission reduction, and must strengthen confidence. In the first half of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the expected reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP, the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP, and the ratio of days with good air quality in cities at prefecture level and above have been completed.

2024-01-02 14:18:21

作为行业龙头,大型水泥企业肩负着引领行业方向、推动行业进步的责任。面临“需求下滑、效益萎缩、产能过剩”等行业困局,水泥巨头们又是如何“出招”的呢?

2023-12-29 14:53:53

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.