供需双向利好 水泥行业全年利润预计可达1500亿

2020-08-13 18:29:34

四季度水泥价格仍有望冲击去年最高位,同时全年行业利润预计可达1500亿。

“四季度水泥价格仍有望冲击去年最高位,同时全年行业利润预计可达1500亿。”  

8月13日,中国水泥网总经理江勋应邀参加由东方证券主办的“乘风破浪的周期”主题论坛并发表题为《水泥行业:千磨万击还坚劲》主题报告时预测。报告中江勋对上半年水泥行业形势作出分析,并对下半年水泥行业发展趋势进行展望。  

“上半年水泥行业实现利润767亿元,同比下滑6.1%,虽较2019年上半年回落,但仍为历史第二高位,尽显行业韧性。”江勋表示,水泥企业上半年业绩整体下滑,其中华北市场金隅冀东业绩萎缩三成左右,但是,在西部大开发政策等因素影响下,以西部地区的天山股份、宁夏建材、江西万年青为代表的部分水泥企业出现逆势增长。  

据中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院分析,上半年水泥企业业绩高韧性背后原因有两大主要原因:  

一方面,二季度水泥需求强势回升,拉动行业形势回暖。数据显示,一季度水泥产量大幅萎缩23.63%,但二季度同比强势回升,增长7.05%。特别是5月,水泥产量2.48亿吨,创下单月历史最高。

  

另一方面,开年水泥高价补量,同时燃料成本下降。水泥大数据研究院数据显示,一季度水泥价格高于去年25元/吨左右,煤炭价格同样低于去年同期,其中4、5月份均价分别大幅低于去年同期21%和17%。  

江勋表示,总体来说,上半年水泥行情的主旋律是“跌多涨少,短涨长跌”。  

对于下半年水泥行业形势,江勋作出“需求无忧供给有限扩大”的基本判断。  

需求方面,基于水泥的刚性需求特性,全年来看疫情对水泥行业的影响有限。今年水泥市场启动时间较往年延迟1个月左右,需求被一定程度抑制并延后至下半年。疫情将不会改变水泥需求平台期的现实,在基建政策激励和专项债支持下,水泥需求稳定。  

供给方面,2015年以来,水泥总产能受到严格控制,维持在18亿吨上下。自2018年起,减量置换加速,三年产能置换项目累计超过1.1亿吨,但投产不到800万吨(不足7%)。2020年新投生产线产能有所增加,60%以上由TOP10企业或区域龙头控制,行业集中度提升。  

与此同时,水泥产能运转时间也受到严格控制,自2016年国务院推行错峰生产政策,北方15省所有生产线采暖季错峰。截至目前,31省市除海南、西藏外,其余省份均有错峰生产政策。政府肯定错峰生产贡献,错峰生产政策不会取消,有利于缓解产能过剩矛盾,提升行业效益。  

此外,水泥行业集中度与产能过剩差异带来分化。近年来,大企业兼并重组小企业继续减少,前十强水泥企业产能占比由2012年的36.23%上升至2019年的48.36%。整体来看,多数省份CR3熟料集中度在50%以上,有利于区域市场稳定。同时,产能过剩虽然是水泥行业当前面临的严峻课题,但是区域市场间存在较大差异,整体呈现南高北低态势,产能过剩对全国行情影响有限。 

最后,江勋预测下半年水泥价格将有小幅增长,市场或呈分化,优先看好华东市场行情。全国P.O42.5散装水泥,月均价格区间[440,510],四季度仍有望冲击去年最高位,全年行业利润预计可达1500亿。  

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Correlation

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Northeast region shut down the kiln again for 15 days in August, which played a supporting role in cement prices.

2024-07-26 17:06:09

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, 25 major manufacturers in Nanjing notice to raise the price of bulk cement 20 yuan/ton, the implementation remains to be observed. The market demand in other regions is general, and the cement market is stable and weak.

2024-03-30 13:06:23

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the market in Northeast China has started initially, and the demand for cement has recovered poorly. The price of cement in Heilongjiang is stable for the time being, but the quotation of leading enterprises is different. There are few construction sites in Jilin area, and the price of cement is low. In Liaoning, the demand for cement in central Liaoning is insufficient and the price is running at a low level.

2024-03-30 12:55:26

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the market demand in Chengdu, Sichuan Province has recovered recently, and some leading enterprises in Chengdu and its surrounding markets have raised the price of bulk cement by 30 yuan/ton in the week, and the actual implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Chongqing and Yunnan are about 20-30 yuan/ton lower.

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On March 29, the "2024 13th China Cement Industry Summit Main Forum and TOP100 Award Ceremony" was held grandly.

2024-03-29 18:00:30

He proposed that the cement industry should first establish and then break, first stabilize and then advance, and must realize that there is no winner in low-price competition, enterprises should look at the world; use differentiated competition, technological innovation and cooperation to replace low-price competition; rigid capacity reduction should be put on the agenda as soon as possible.

2024-03-29 17:13:52

According to the cement market data center, In the early stage, the leading enterprises in Guanzhong area of Shaanxi had notified to raise the cement price by 30 yuan/ton. Recently, the market demand has declined, coupled with the impact of price reduction in the surrounding market, the quotation of enterprises in Guanzhong area has dropped by about 20 yuan/ton in the week.

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He said that high-end technologies such as the application of intelligent and digital technologies have promoted the productivity innovation and the progress of production relations in the new era and new pattern of the cement industry.

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He stressed that digital transformation and upgrading is essential to enhance the competitiveness of cement enterprises.

2024-03-29 12:15:59

Faced with difficulties and challenges, Xiao Jiaxiang proposed that the cement industry should maintain rationality and resilience, strengthen confidence, overcome difficulties and promote high-quality development of the industry.

2024-03-29 12:00:33

Zhang Liqun predicts that China's economic growth will continue to pick up in 2024, with an economic growth rate of no less than 5%.

2024-03-29 11:28:51

Lu Yanchun said that overcapacity and shrinking demand are the main contradictions in the current development of the cement industry.

2024-03-29 10:27:12

Pan Zhonghong, deputy general manager of Anhui Conch Cement Co., Ltd., said that the current situation of the industry is very anxious and we do not want to see it. The serious overcapacity and the sharp decline in demand have further intensified the contradictions in the industry.

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2024-03-28 18:30:58

Zhang Jian, general manager of marketing department of Red Lion Holding Group Co., Ltd., said that at present, it is an indisputable fact that the cement industry has excess capacity and declining demand.

2024-03-28 18:04:10

He Kunhuang, director and general manager of Guangdong Tapai Group Co., Ltd., said that the industry situation this year may be more difficult than last year. On the one hand, there is no sign of a rebound in real estate; on the other hand, affected by debt, some government infrastructure investment has been affected. In the long run, the demand for cement is likely to decrease in the next decade.

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The person in charge: "Large enterprises also have to survive, stop too many kilns, the loss is too great, large enterprises can not stand, has been unable to retreat, continue to go on like this, the market environment in 2024 will only be worse.". The person in charge also pointed out that the downward trend of cement demand is inevitable, and it is impossible to return to the past in the future. Overcapacity will only become more and more serious, which is the basic aspect of the current cement industry.

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