供需双向利好 水泥行业全年利润预计可达1500亿

2020-08-13 18:29:34

四季度水泥价格仍有望冲击去年最高位,同时全年行业利润预计可达1500亿。

“四季度水泥价格仍有望冲击去年最高位,同时全年行业利润预计可达1500亿。”  

8月13日,中国水泥网总经理江勋应邀参加由东方证券主办的“乘风破浪的周期”主题论坛并发表题为《水泥行业:千磨万击还坚劲》主题报告时预测。报告中江勋对上半年水泥行业形势作出分析,并对下半年水泥行业发展趋势进行展望。  

“上半年水泥行业实现利润767亿元,同比下滑6.1%,虽较2019年上半年回落,但仍为历史第二高位,尽显行业韧性。”江勋表示,水泥企业上半年业绩整体下滑,其中华北市场金隅冀东业绩萎缩三成左右,但是,在西部大开发政策等因素影响下,以西部地区的天山股份、宁夏建材、江西万年青为代表的部分水泥企业出现逆势增长。  

据中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院分析,上半年水泥企业业绩高韧性背后原因有两大主要原因:  

一方面,二季度水泥需求强势回升,拉动行业形势回暖。数据显示,一季度水泥产量大幅萎缩23.63%,但二季度同比强势回升,增长7.05%。特别是5月,水泥产量2.48亿吨,创下单月历史最高。

  

另一方面,开年水泥高价补量,同时燃料成本下降。水泥大数据研究院数据显示,一季度水泥价格高于去年25元/吨左右,煤炭价格同样低于去年同期,其中4、5月份均价分别大幅低于去年同期21%和17%。  

江勋表示,总体来说,上半年水泥行情的主旋律是“跌多涨少,短涨长跌”。  

对于下半年水泥行业形势,江勋作出“需求无忧供给有限扩大”的基本判断。  

需求方面,基于水泥的刚性需求特性,全年来看疫情对水泥行业的影响有限。今年水泥市场启动时间较往年延迟1个月左右,需求被一定程度抑制并延后至下半年。疫情将不会改变水泥需求平台期的现实,在基建政策激励和专项债支持下,水泥需求稳定。  

供给方面,2015年以来,水泥总产能受到严格控制,维持在18亿吨上下。自2018年起,减量置换加速,三年产能置换项目累计超过1.1亿吨,但投产不到800万吨(不足7%)。2020年新投生产线产能有所增加,60%以上由TOP10企业或区域龙头控制,行业集中度提升。  

与此同时,水泥产能运转时间也受到严格控制,自2016年国务院推行错峰生产政策,北方15省所有生产线采暖季错峰。截至目前,31省市除海南、西藏外,其余省份均有错峰生产政策。政府肯定错峰生产贡献,错峰生产政策不会取消,有利于缓解产能过剩矛盾,提升行业效益。  

此外,水泥行业集中度与产能过剩差异带来分化。近年来,大企业兼并重组小企业继续减少,前十强水泥企业产能占比由2012年的36.23%上升至2019年的48.36%。整体来看,多数省份CR3熟料集中度在50%以上,有利于区域市场稳定。同时,产能过剩虽然是水泥行业当前面临的严峻课题,但是区域市场间存在较大差异,整体呈现南高北低态势,产能过剩对全国行情影响有限。 

最后,江勋预测下半年水泥价格将有小幅增长,市场或呈分化,优先看好华东市场行情。全国P.O42.5散装水泥,月均价格区间[440,510],四季度仍有望冲击去年最高位,全年行业利润预计可达1500亿。  

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