业绩承压下股价仍一路开挂 海螺水泥底气何在?

2020-05-08 18:20:03

海螺水泥一季度实现营收 232亿元,同比下降23.9%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润49亿元,同比下降19.2%。但股价却一路上扬。

海螺水泥一季度实现营收 232亿元,同比下降23.9%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润49亿元,同比下降19.2%。但股价却一路上扬,从3月19日的最低44.65港元至近期高点59.4港元,涨幅达33%。

市场无惧业绩承压的原因何在?

受新冠疫情影响,海螺水泥2020年第一季度营业收入同比下降。长期来看,疫情得以控制,全面复工之后,预期海螺水泥的产品销量和营收在后续季度会重新回暖。上海财经大学会计学院副教授蒋德权指出,公司的利润决定性因素是公司的水泥及水泥制品销售,受水泥去产能政策的影响,水泥行业新增产能受限,生产线总数逐年下降,水泥产能集中度得以提高。在2020年水泥熟料总产能一定的前提下,海螺水泥作为行业龙头企业,产能存量较高,规模化生产将带来规模经济优势,成本优势明显,定价能力会得到进一步提升。

“泥中茅台”竞争力究竟体现在哪里?

海螺水泥旗下子公司主要分布于东部、中部、南部和西部。在华北和东北区域分布较少。领跑布局了华东、华南以及华中等水泥高价利润区。公司有着完善的营销网络,设立了500多个市场部。公司的水运优势明显,打通了长三角、珠三角以及浙江、福建等沿海地区的水路上岸通道。全国水泥市场数据显示,吨水泥公路运输成本为0.7元每公里,而水路运输成本仅为公路运输的25%,不到0.2元。并且,船只的运载能力也远大于卡车。

龙头地位牢不可破?

行业内比较发现,海螺水泥与冀东水泥2019年业绩均同比上扬,海螺水泥2010年海螺水泥与同行冀东水泥营业收入相差较小,但过去的10年,尤其是2016年-2019年,海螺水泥与同行冀东水泥的营收差距逐步拉大,海螺水泥增长迅速,到2019年冀东水泥的营收仅占海螺水泥的22%。两个公司的归属于上市公司股东权益的净利润差距日益明显。从盈利能力看,2010年海螺水泥ROE与冀东水泥几乎相等,但海螺水泥近10年净资产收益率一直保持在相对客观的水平,而冀东水泥则波动相对较大,处于相对低的水平。

虽然海螺水泥的营收、净利润、净资产回报率指标均比同行冀东水泥表现优异,但2019年海螺水泥毛利率略低于冀东水泥。海螺水泥的成本控制能力是其竞争优势的重要组成部分,但近几年来成本控制优势逐渐与同行缩小,2019年甚至低于冀东水泥。蒋德权认为,保持并强化成本控制竞争优势是海螺水泥应该关注的方向。

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Correlation

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