[原创]阿富汗水泥行业概况

2015-08-13 09:03:34

阿富汗国内水泥需求在700万吨左右,其中大部分依赖于进口,国内运营中的水泥厂仅有一家,且处于间歇性停产状态,年水泥产量不足5万吨。

  根据2014年美国地质勘探局(USGS)的研究报告,阿富汗共有两家水泥厂,均位于萨曼甘省的Pol-e-Khomri区:

  Ghori Ⅰ工厂:两座窑,拥有400t/d的熟料产能;报告期Ghori Ⅰ厂由于煤炭获取的限制,处于间歇性经营状态。

  Ghori Ⅱ工厂:两座窑,拥有1200t/d的熟料产能。《全球水泥黄页》显示,Ghori Ⅱ没有建设完成,目前没有生产水泥。

  第三个厂,Ghori Ⅲ工厂,拥有4000t/d的熟料产能,原先计划在2013年投产。然而《全球水泥黄页》证实,工厂建设还未开始。所有的Ghori水泥厂由Afghan Cement LLC所有,这是Afghan Investment Company(AIC)的子公司,AIC直到最近被前总统卡尔扎伊的兄弟穆罕默德·卡尔扎伊和其他与政府有关系的富有投资者所拥有。

  根据USGS2012年矿物年鉴,最新的数据显示,阿富汗于2012年共生产水泥3.7万吨,较2011年的3.8万吨减少,但较2010年的3.56万吨增加。2013年5月,国内水泥需求预计为700万吨。2009~2010年,国内水泥年需求估计在600万吨。

表1:阿富汗2005~2012年水泥产量

资料来源:USGS

  由于在阿富汗仅有一家运营中的水泥厂,除了国家经济外的诸多因素都会影响其运作。2012年阿富汗矿山部(MoM)一份报告显示,阿富汗水泥产量在世界处于最低水平,人均仅2公斤。这是非常低的,如巴基斯坦92公斤/人、英国200公斤/人。

非经营中的水泥厂

  2013年9月,MoM招标在帕尔旺省的Jabal-ul-Saraj区和萨曼甘省的Pol-e-Khomri区建设新的水泥厂,在赫拉特省的Injil区完成工厂的部分建设。与美国国防部合作,在两家国外机构的技术保障下,MoM敲定了未来水泥厂的选址。拟建的水泥厂预期各自生产水泥100万吨。

  2014年5月,MoM接到了对赫拉特省和帕尔旺省水泥厂建设的报价。15家公司对投标表示了兴趣,提交三个报价,来自Lego Afghan Logistic和Zasu-Honkong Union Holding的两个公司的两项建议被接受。与此同时,MoM表示在帕尔旺省的Jabal Saraj的一家关闭的水泥厂将提出招标。Jabal Saraj厂是阿富汗第一家安装旋窑的水泥厂。湿法窑熟料产能100t/d,自1957年以来从未升级改造过。1996年工厂的正常生产被塔利班中断。在塔利班政权时期,工厂被轰炸十余次。最近,MoM使赫拉特省的Inji工厂开始运营的尝试失败。2013年3月,伊朗的Pesghaman Company中标以完成工厂建设和经营Inji工厂。1978年,Inji工厂3000t/d的产能开始建设,但是内战爆发后施工推迟,最终没有完成。与Pesghaman Company的合同终止,根据MoM的说法,原因是Pesghaman Company不能在27个月内安装好符合要求的产能。这主要归结于缺乏关键的技术和财务举措来挖掘生产所需的的原材料。

水泥进口

  由于仅有一家处于经营状态的水泥厂,阿富汗国内水泥供应严重不足,对进口有强大的依赖性。根据可以获取到的数据显示,2005年阿富汗从巴基斯坦进口水泥180万吨,从伊朗进口水泥40万吨,从乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦进口水泥30万吨。

  巴基斯坦是阿富汗水泥市场的主要进口国,进口水泥大部分提供给中部和北部地区。巴基斯坦水泥出口量的50%流向阿富汗市场。巴基斯坦公司中出口水泥到阿富汗较多的是Lucky Cement、Bestway、Cherat、Lafarge、Fauji Cement和DG Khan Cement。其中,DG Khan Cement总出口量的30%和Lucky Cement总出口量的20~25%是流向阿富汗市场。

  然而,近年来,巴基斯坦出口到阿富汗的水泥正明显减少,从2010~2011年的473万吨下降到2013~2014年的366万吨。2014~2015财年的前六个月,出口至阿富汗的水泥有166万吨,是2013~2014财年同期的1/2。2013年7月,出口量为44.1万吨,而2014年6月则下降到18.4万吨,这主要归因于,北大西洋公约组织(NATO)即将准备离开阿富汗。NATO占到阿富汗水泥需求的大部分,它利用大量水泥建造军事基地和重建活动。一旦NATO军队离开阿富汗,阿富汗的水泥需求将变得不稳定,将更多取决于国内是否安定或者政府继续发展计划与否。

  巨大的水泥进口使得阿富汗水泥生产商面临挑战,伊朗的水泥生产有着政府极高的补贴,导致在国内和出口市场上其价格很低。伊朗是世界最大的水泥生产国之一,2013~2014财年出口水泥超过2000万吨。乌兹别克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和土库曼斯坦的水泥行业正在扩大产能,未来会出口大量水泥到阿富汗。在巴基斯坦,很多水泥厂都是现代化节能工厂,能够节约生产成本。巴基斯坦的水泥生产商以比国内更低的价格将水泥销往国外,包括阿富汗。

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Correlation

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