First, the current grim situation
of the cement industry Since the announcement of the lifting of the COVID-19 epidemic in December 2022, the cement industry has breathed a sigh of relief and felt that the time to revitalize the cement industry is coming again. However, the actual operation in the past two years has been a big surprise. Not only has cement production decreased year after year, but also the industry's profits have fallen off a cliff, and the profit data on the books of most enterprises are even worse.
According to official statistics, in the epidemic year of 2022, the national cement output was 2.13 billion tons, and the whole industry realized a profit of 68.6 billion yuan, only the profit of 169.4 billion yuan in the previous year. The situation in 2024 is even worse. It is estimated that the cement output will be around 1.8 billion tons. As for the profit, it is estimated that it will be around 15 billion yuan at best according to the decline rate in the previous two years.
And the reality is even more worrying:
1, the enterprise kiln operation rate has been cut in half. According to the requirements of provinces and cities for off-peak production, it is estimated that the operation rate of large kilns in enterprises may still be maintained at about 50%, but in some provinces it is actually less than 30% (for example, some provinces require enterprises to open kilns for only 25 days per quarter). Even with such a low requirement for the number of days to open kilns, quite a number of enterprises (mostly dry kilns with a capacity of less than 3200 tons) have been forced to stop production or change to grinding stations. If these enterprises forced to stop production are taken into account, the average operation rate of large kilns in cement enterprises across the country is only about 40%. Now it is no longer possible to assess whether the enterprise has implemented peak staggering production and how many kilns have been stopped, but only to see how many kilns have been opened this year and whether the enterprise can survive.
3. The phenomenon of enterprise layoffs and laid-off workers is serious. Because most enterprises are difficult to maintain simple reproduction, in order to reduce production costs and barely maintain the survival of enterprises, they are forced to reduce the wages of employees, or simply lay off employees, so that a large number of employees flow into society to fend for themselves. 4. The coordination function of the association is lost. Many local cement associations have existed in name only, and basically have no appeal and cohesion. The coordination and coordination function of the association is almost completely lost, and the decisions made by the association at its meetings are basically not implemented. Due to the lack of membership fees, many local associations have been unable to carry out their work normally. 5. Corporate integrity has been lost. At present, there is no credibility at all among enterprises, and the hard-won consensus on price recovery is also a matter of compliance in public but not in private, an open tone and a secret decline, fighting separately and fighting openly and secretly, just like a sheet of loose sand. ...... What's going on ? Is it that government departments do not act, associations do not work hard, and enterprises do not cooperate? Every year, the competent departments of provincial and municipal governments issue red-headed documents on peak-staggering production, and even specify the number of days of kiln shutdown for each enterprise. Cement associations at all levels also try their best to hold various meetings to organize enterprises to implement and assess, and most enterprises can self-discipline to complete or even overfulfill the task of stopping kilns. At present, the cooperation among the government, associations and enterprises can not be said to be not close. At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held on July 30 this year, the requirement of "strengthening industry self-discipline and preventing vicious competition of involution" was put forward, and then the China Cement Association and the provincial and municipal cement associations issued the proposal of "strengthening industry self-discipline and preventing vicious competition of involution" successively. It calls on the whole industry to fulfill corporate responsibility, strengthen industry self-discipline and put an end to vicious competition. But what role does this play? Ccement. Com/news/2411/richtext/IMG/cbiv1tza7ch1731485394769. What is the problem? In fact, we all know that the current grim situation, from the general environment, is the current country in the period of economic restructuring, popular point is the period of economic depression, inevitable problems. As far as the industry is concerned, it is caused by the extreme overcapacity of cement, which has been completely unable to adapt to the current economic depression (economic transformation) environment, rather than by the involution of the cement industry and the disorderly and vicious competition. Because in the past two years, most enterprises are in a state of simple reproduction, hoping that the market will recover, prices will rise and enterprises will make profits. Now the enterprise has no profit to speak of, it is difficult to protect itself, where there is confidence, strength, energy to engage in what cannibalism "industry involution" ah? Therefore, after associations at all levels issued a proposal to prevent involution, the response of enterprises was flat. In my opinion, if we still rely on the policy of off-peak production to save the current crisis, it is no different from a drop in the bucket. Staggered peak production policy, in the period of relative excess cement production capacity, still has the effect of "curing the symptoms but not the root cause", but now this crisis, even the function of curing the symptoms is not available. In particular, the seemingly fair and just one-size-fits-all peak-staggering production, regardless of the good or ugly of the enterprise, is essentially a policy that encourages everyone to continue to eat from the same big pot. It not only suppresses the enthusiasm of technological innovation and technological progress of enterprises, but also protects those backward production capacity to some extent, which has no positive effect on eliminating backward production capacity and excess production capacity. Practice has proved that it is against the law of market economy to continue to implement the policy of peak staggering production, which will hinder the development of advanced productive forces, is not conducive to the breakthrough of the cement industry as soon as possible, aggravates the further deterioration of the current situation, and is not conducive to promoting the economic transformation and healthy development of the industry. my opinion, in the current period, we should mention "eliminating excess capacity". What is excess capacity? Whether it belongs to excess capacity should not be divided simply by the size of production scale or the advanced level of process equipment configuration. 2. Resolutely adopt the market to eliminate excess capacity. Since it is impossible to eliminate excess capacity by administrative means, we must adopt the determination of strong men to break their wrists, in accordance with the principle of survival of the fittest, and adopt the means of full competition in the market economy, so that the market can eliminate excess capacity without resource advantages and market competitiveness. 3. It is suggested to cancel the policy of off-peak production. Since we need to eliminate excess capacity by means of market economy, there is no need to carry out peak staggering production to protect those enterprises without market competitiveness. Otherwise, everyone will continue to linger on, and the result will inevitably be boiling frogs in warm water and waiting for death. 4. It is suggested to cancel the capacity replacement policy. In 2013, the State Council issued the Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Resolving the Serious Contradiction of Overcapacity, which clearly stipulated that all localities and departments should not approve or file new projects in industries with serious overcapacity in any name or in any way. The capacity replacement plan must be formulated in accordance with the principle of equivalent or reduction. That is to say, from then on, the country has realized that the cement industry has begun to have excess capacity. For more than a decade, all provinces and municipalities across the country have made full use of this policy to turn corruption into magic, bringing the zombie production capacity of those enterprises that are on the verge of or have closed down back to life and changing their appearance. Hundreds of millions of tons have been added In this replacement process, Many enterprises have also adopted illegal means such as "approving small and building large", which has aggravated the situation of extreme overcapacity. At present, there is no doubt that the cement clinker production capacity of all provinces and cities in the country is in a state of serious overcapacity or extreme overcapacity.In this case, what is the practical significance of capacity replacement, especially allowing cross-provincial replacement? Isn't it equivalent to pouring your own "dirty water" into other people's homes and blaming others? I don't think it's necessary to ask these companies to make up for it, because most of the capacity that has been replaced now belongs to zombie capacity. Why do we let these zombie capacity linger and wander around? Now that they have been found out, they should let these enterprises spend money to buy lessons and take administrative punishment measures directly to make an example of others! Some of the views and suggestions put forward in the article may be sensitive to some topics, and some of them involve the adjustment of national industrial policies and the fundamental interests of some enterprises. It will be a huge systematic project to solve them, which requires the joint efforts of the whole society.
