What about overcapacity? This is a big problem in China. Although Japan is small, the situation of overcapacity is not unprecedented, but the way Japan cuts capacity is very special-relying on monopoly. As long as monopoly can solve the problem of overcapacity? In the fourth issue of the State-owned Assets Report, Chen Yan, Executive Director of the Japanese Enterprise (China) Research Institute, who keeps regular contact with the Japanese industry, was invited to explain in detail how Japan's political, economic and social sectors can work together to reduce excess capacity and achieve industrial transition behind the monopoly?
"Forty-three years ago, I graduated from university and joined Mitsubishi Integrated Materials Company.". At first, I worked in a small mine in Kyushu. After the closure of the mine, I have done general affairs and personnel work in several cement plants. As the cement industry gradually enters a mature stage, the number of construction projects replacing the old with the new in Japan is gradually decreasing, and some production capacity needs to be eliminated. The placement of some workers has become my main job. In April 2015, Mr. Zhi, who will be transferred from the general representative of China to the general manager of the subsidiary company, recalled to the author.
With the continuous growth of a country, the industry will naturally go from high-speed development to maturity, and then step into the time when capacity needs to be gradually reduced. Compared with China, Japan's population is only 1/10 of ours, and its land area is only 1/27. When a technology is developed, it will soon be popularized throughout Japan. Each enterprise has roughly the same technology, labor cost and circulation cost, and the overcapacity of an enterprise will soon become the overcapacity of the whole industry. Whether the enterprise is willing or not, the large production capacity, the capital occupied and the human cost to be maintained will not change, and the enterprise will eventually have to deal with it. Japan has adopted more measures to reduce excess production capacity, that is, enterprises transfer part of their employees independently, so that excess production can be alleviated; industry associations come forward to discuss and reduce part of production capacity; and the state will formulate industrial policies and make timely adjustments.
Every time the company transforms, general affairs and personnel professionals like Mr. Zhi will come out to find new job opportunities for employees who will be laid off. This work is much more difficult for enterprises than deciding to stop the operation of a production line.
No false report or underreport is allowed for accurate statistics.
Maintaining a certain amount of excess production capacity should be a major feature of the Japanese economy. In this way, enterprises can supply products at any time when the market demand increases. Kitahara Isamu, a professor of economics at Keio University in Japan, sees the phenomenon of Japanese enterprises retaining part of their surplus productivity. Only after having surplus production capacity, can enterprises maintain the posture of sitting on Mount Tai in front of any other enterprises that are ready to launch attacks through price reduction. However, even if this is the extra part, the enterprise is also aware of it.
Interviewing in Japan, whether it is enterprises, universities, or government agencies, people who do planning, research, and economic policy must have relevant statistics on their desks. Japan is a country with extremely strict statistics, and the statistical content is also very detailed, and the water in the statistical data can almost be omitted. For example, in the cement industry, compared with China's annual output of 250 million tons, Japan's annual output is about 60 million tons. Even after the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, the use of cement suddenly increased, but its production capacity was still controlled at 60 million tons, which did not reach the grand occasion of hundreds of millions of tons in history.
There are only three or four large cement plants in Japan, such as Mitsubishi Materials, Pacific Cement and Ube Kosan. Where there is demand for cement, these enterprises will go to the local area as soon as possible to set up factories, or acquire some small cement plants, and the industry is quite concentrated. How much cement a place needs, how much it can provide and how much space it has, the enterprise is very clear that there is no false report or underreport. In a small range, when the number of enterprises is small and the production capacity is rich, the maturity of the market will inevitably lead to a large number of surplus equipment in the whole industry. When the market is very transparent and the statistics are absolutely accurate, the operating pressure that each enterprise can endure is the same, either to eliminate some production capacity together, everyone survives, or before that, it has been difficult to maintain, the enterprise itself to do other business, the market can not leave special space for some enterprises.
Therefore, in Japan, it is not very difficult for enterprises in the same industry to cut part of their production capacity together.
Monopoly excludes backward production capacity from entering the market
Mr. Fujita, who has worked in Sumitomo Metal Company for more than 30 years, has made a survey of China's steel industry and feels that the biggest difference between China and Japan is that there are too many small and medium-sized steel plants in China, while there are only a few large steel plants in Japan. "You can imagine how difficult it will be for China's steel industry to eliminate excess equipment." Fujita said.
Japan's steel industry has also suffered from overcapacity, but the specific situation and subsequent development are not the same. Japan was once the world's largest producer of steel and the world's largest exporter. However, the great economic crisis, such as the oil crisis in 1973 and 1979, brought great shock to Japan's steel industry, so that the rapid development of Japan's steel enterprises had to stop. The growth of pursuing quantity has hit the ceiling, and the production of small batches and varieties of steel products has become the mainstream, with a serious surplus of equipment.
Until the 1990s, when the author investigated a large number of Japanese steel plants, employees still talked about the problem of overcapacity. "Steel mills have begun to transform to steel products, and enterprises hope to gain new business growth points through the processing of steel products." Fujita recalled, "The cost of each manufacturer is roughly the same, when it is difficult to find new markets, or to find new buyers in the international market, we can only shut down the furnace and reduce production." At that time, Sumitomo Metal transferred many steelworkers to the steel product processing department, and began to cut equipment after the workers had their own jobs.
Since the 21st century, with the revitalization of China's economy, steel has begun to have a new market. Japanese steel manufacturers are all making a lot of money, at this time, by investing in new blast furnaces, especially small electric furnaces with less investment and quick results, it is said that there is a certain room to start. But Japan has enough excess capacity to cope with the demand for steel in China and other countries. Therefore, there is no duplication of construction of a large number of small steel plants in Japan.
Moreover, over the past decade, Japan's steel production capacity has been further reduced. The merger of Nippon Steel and Sumitomo Metal naturally reduced the output of some blast furnaces of the two companies or stopped using them. "As we all know, in the end, the whole industry is losing more and more opportunities to make profits, so it is better to discuss how to cut some production capacity.". In particular, the largest enterprises in the industry took the lead in cutting. Fujita pointed out, however, that this reduction is by no means an opportunity for backward production capacity with meager capital, backward technology and small output to enter the market. Japan's market is narrow and small, and large enterprises can quickly occupy new markets without adding any equipment. In this way, every time Japan cuts excess capital, it still has a great ability to attack again, and there is no situation of cutting excess capacity on the one hand and adding new capacity on the other.
& emsp; & emsp; "Overcapacity is the norm in Japan's various industries, but this surplus is a surplus under the premise of monopoly and full competition." Kitahara Isamu said. The monopoly of Japanese industry makes it easier for industry associations to make decisions when discussing how to reduce excess capital. Every time excess capacity is cut, leeway will be left in case of emergency.
Guiding industrial transformation through taxation
After World War II, the almost impoverished Japanese industry began to recover from coal and cement, followed by the rise of textile, steel, electrical appliances, automobiles and other industries. The emergence and development of each new industry means that the previous stage of industry has entered a surplus stage. In each shift period, the Japanese government has also achieved good results in rectifying the concentration of different industries.
In the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, Mr. Tanaka, an official in charge of industrial policy, said to the author: "The government has given the right to reduce or exempt taxes through legislation, which has enabled a large amount of equipment investment to be implemented in new industries.". For enterprises with excess capacity, the state will encourage them to reduce excess capacity in another way. For example, through legislation, let the industry take the initiative to put new investment on new products, bid farewell to the old production content, to expand new products, new areas of business, the old problem of overcapacity is relatively easy to solve.
The stage of Japan's industrial development is very prominent. In a certain period of time, the country will concentrate on solving the problem of overcapacity in a certain industry. In addition, the territory is relatively narrow and the enterprises are relatively concentrated. After an industrial policy comes down, it can basically be prohibited. The government has managed large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises well, and under the guidance of the new industrial plan, enterprises will adjust themselves according to market rules. In Japan, the interests of large enterprises are guaranteed through legislation. Economic circles actively support some people with political aspirations to win elections, enter Parliament, and pass legislation in Parliament to ensure the interests of enterprises. With laws and decrees, officials implement them concretely. In this way, the triangular relationship between enterprises and politics, politics and administration, and administration and enterprises has become clearer. When the problem of production capacity affects the efficiency of enterprises and the country needs to solve the problem of excess because of the bottleneck of the development of a certain industry, it can quickly suppress the excess part through taxation and other means.
& emsp; & emsp; "There is no grass under the tree"
The author repeatedly emphasized the relatively narrow land area, domestic enterprises are easy to form a monopoly of the Japanese industrial characteristics, to say that the Japanese concept of "no grass under the big tree". Emerging enterprises can fully compete in Japan, but if emerging enterprises want to become key industries supported by the state, they need a lot of policy support. This kind of policy support, in a country with a very thorough legal system, the biggest support is the amount of tax relief. The state's support for a certain industry soon led to the birth of a new industry and the transition from the stage of free competition to the stage of monopoly. Monopoly stage is a period when big trees grow, small trees disappear and grass survival becomes very difficult. To ensure the efficiency of enterprises, monopoly is absolutely the last natural choice for enterprises, and after the emergence of monopoly, it will be relatively easy to reduce a certain degree of excess capacity.
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