水泥行业供需关系未来或将改善

2014-10-13 13:10:12

水泥需求9月逐渐进入传统旺季,今年由于市场资金紧张等因素影响,水泥需求回升略显缓慢,全国平均价格环比小幅提升0.4%,其中华东和中南地区价格季节性上调,华北和西南地区仍有所下降。

  水泥需求9月逐渐进入传统旺季,今年由于市场资金紧张等因素影响,水泥需求回升略显缓慢,全国平均价格环比小幅提升0.4%,其中华东和中南地区价格季节性上调,华北和西南地区仍有所下降。9月底全国水泥库容比水平较上月下降0.5个百分点至69.8%。10月预计水泥需求环比继续提升,价格仍将有所上行。近期房地产全面放松限贷政策带来了预期的改善,投资增速下滑情况或将有所好转,基建方面,4季度预计投资环比有所提升,整体水泥需求也将有所改善。长期来看,水泥新增产能不断放缓,现有产能也开始谋求绿色转型,未来水泥窑协同处置废弃物有较大发展空间。目前企业也在积极争取财税政策等方面的支持,环保业务的发展有望促进整个水泥行业的转型升级。同时,若水泥行业化解过剩产能相关政策能够得到较好的落实,也将会促进水泥行业的结构调整和供需关系改善。

  个股方面,长期关注具有低成本优势以及受益于未来行业资源整合的华东地区龙头海螺水泥,关注弹性较大以及大力发展水泥环保产业的华新水泥,以及受益京津冀大气污染防治以及一体化建设的金隅股份和冀东水泥。

  9 月传统旺季水泥需求缓慢恢复,价格环比有所上升:9 月底全国水泥平均价格为320 元/吨,价格环比上升0.4%,同比下跌4.9%。市场进入传统旺季,虽然需求恢复略显缓慢,但整体需求环比有所提升,加之企业推涨意愿较强,9 月份价格震荡上行。各地区水泥价格涨跌互现,华北和西南地区价格有所下滑,华东和中南地区价格上调,其他地区基本保持平稳。库存方面,9 月底全国水泥库容比约为69.8%,环比上月底下降了0.5 个百分点,较去年同期水平上升了3.2 个百分点。

  水泥需求平淡,产量增长速度放缓:2014 年1-8 月份全国水泥产量累计同比增长3.53%,达到15.92 亿吨。8 月份单月产量为2.25 亿吨,单月同比增长2.97%,环比增长0.82%。1-8 月份熟料产量累计同比增长4.81%,达9.45 亿吨。今年以来行业需求趋弱运行,水泥产量增速水平低于去年同期。

  地产投资累计增速继续下滑。截至2014 年8 月,我们跟踪的基建固定资产投资累计为6.51 万亿,累计同比增速为21.57%。2014 年前8月份道路运输业固定资产累计同比增长20.2%至1.44 万亿,铁路固定资产投资同比增长18.20%至3,702 亿元。其中基本建设投资同比增长7.5%至2,984 亿元。房地产方面,2014 年1-8月全国房地产开发投资完成额为5.9 万亿,累计同比增速为13.2%。1-8月房地产新开工面积累计同比下降10.5%,房屋施工面积累计同比增长11.5%。整体来看,今年以来房地产投资增速放缓对水泥行业需求影响较大,近期房地产全面放松限贷政策带来了预期的改善,投资增速下滑情况或将有所好转。

  新增产能继续放缓,行业共同遏制新建违规产能:2014 年上半年全国新增熟料产能3,106 万吨,考虑到下半年仍有约4,000 万吨熟料产能投放,预计全年将新增熟料产能7,000 万吨左右,占13 年底新型干法熟料产能比重为4.1%,产能增速继续放缓,新增产能仍将主要集中在西北和西南地区。今年7 月和8 月工信部公布了淘汰落后和过剩产能的企业第一、二批名单,今年合计将要淘汰水泥(熟料及磨机)产能8,496 万吨,其中河北地区占比最大,约为38.5%,而且大部分是磨机产能,有利于区域市场供需改善。此外,近期在水泥协会倡导下,444 家水泥企业签名承诺不新建违规产能,化解产能过剩矛盾,共同维护市场秩序和行业利益。

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According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

The Implementation Measures will prevent this part of production capacity from participating in replacement, which will force inefficient and shutdown production capacity to withdraw from the market, thus speeding up the process of capacity removal and alleviating the increasingly intensified contradiction between supply and demand.

2024-11-08 09:41:16

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

From the recent market situation, the overall cement industry in the fourth quarter has a better expectation, the company has certain advantages in cost control and other aspects, will better benefit from the current round of price recovery and the impact of the rising boom stage.

2024-11-05 11:03:06

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, in the central and southern regions, this week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta and Hainan regions continue to push up the cement price by 30-60 yuan/ton, and the implementation will wait and see; Guangxi region is planning to push up the cement price by 30-50 yuan/ton. After the two lakes region experienced many times of pushing up, the price was temporarily stable this week.

2024-11-01 17:35:36

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

The rising price of raw materials directly leads to the rising production cost of concrete (mortar) in Dongguan City. In view of the large fluctuation of raw material prices, the Association reminds all member units to strengthen communication with customers and inform customers of the fluctuation of raw material prices in a timely manner in order to avoid misunderstandings and disputes between supply and demand.

2024-11-01 11:56:06

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Compared with No.80, the Implementation Measures generally require more stringent, precise and standardized capacity replacement, which is of great significance for speeding up the removal of inefficient capacity, guiding the transformation and upgrading of the industry, and accelerating the promotion of high-quality development.

2024-10-31 17:39:56

A picture to understand the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in Cement and Glass Industry (2024 edition).

2024-10-31 11:05:15

The Implementation Measures adhere to systematic thinking and problem orientation, encourage the advanced and eliminate the backward, implement differentiated policies for different regions and varieties, optimize the industrial layout, and enhance the green and low-carbon level.

2024-10-31 09:15:54

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

Under the current supply and demand situation of the industry, strict implementation of off-peak production is still the key to maintain the stable development of the industry. According to its introduction, the number of off-peak production days in Chongqing this year may reach nearly 200 days, about 20 days more than last year. However, from the implementation of this year, two key problems need to be solved to promote off-peak production. 1、 Some small enterprises are not enthusiastic about participating. According to its introduction, large enterprises and some small enterprises in the region can strictly implement the peak-staggering production plan, but some small-scale cement enterprises, especially single-line enterprises, have poor enthusiasm for the implementation of peak-staggering production, which makes it difficult to implement the regional peak-staggering production as a whole.

2024-10-15 14:42:58

The establishment of OCC is highly recognized by cement enterprises. Under the current complex and changeable market environment, the cement industry urgently needs such an authoritative organization to lead the industry to a healthy development path of "anti-involution" and "anti-dumping".

2024-09-30 11:32:39

Anti-involution is not only a countermeasure to the current predicament, but also the only way for the long-term development of the cement industry. It means that the industry should withdraw from the quagmire of disorderly competition and move towards an orderly, healthy and sustainable development path. Cement enterprises are required to strengthen industry self-discipline, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, actively respond, maintain strategic strength and firm confidence in development.

2024-09-29 14:54:09

Anti-involution is not only a countermeasure to the current predicament, but also the only way for the long-term development of the cement industry. It means that the industry should withdraw from the quagmire of disorderly competition and move towards an orderly, healthy and sustainable development path. Cement enterprises are required to strengthen industry self-discipline, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, actively respond, maintain strategic strength and firm confidence in development.

2024-09-29 11:06:16

Demand declined, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the domestic cement market as a whole was depressed in the first half of the year. However, from a regional perspective, the price situation in the northern region is relatively good, especially in Xinjiang, the three eastern provinces, eastern Mongolia and Hebei, where cement prices are at a relatively high level. Taking Hebei as an example, the big data of China Cement Network show that the overall cement market in Hebei has shown a steady upward trend since this year, and the development trend of the industry is relatively stable. Local cement enterprises said that at present, the bulk ex-factory price of Hebei P.O42.5 cement is basically maintained at 310-330 yuan/ton. "Although it can not be compared with the peak period, in the current industry environment, it has been

2024-09-27 17:30:26

According to the Announcement of Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment on Adjusting the Inclusion Standards of Chongqing Carbon Market (Yuhuan [2023] 55), the original list of Chongqing Carbon Market is updated according to the inclusion standards of industrial enterprises whose annual greenhouse gas emissions reach 13000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (about 5000 tons of standard coal for comprehensive energy consumption) and above. A list of key emission units (hereinafter referred to as key emission units) in Chongqing carbon market in 2023 has been formed, and 334 key emission units have been included in the quota management in 2023.

2024-09-25 14:44:14

At present, Sichuan is speeding up the development of green low-carbon new productivity and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the cement industry. In recent years, Sichuan's industrial sector has vigorously promoted the construction of a full-cycle and full-process green manufacturing system, and continued to carry out the gradient cultivation of green manufacturing demonstration units. The province's cement industry has created a total of 11 national green factories and 35 provincial green factories. One cement enterprise has successfully entered the national energy efficiency "leader" and two cement enterprises have been rated as provincial energy saving and carbon reduction benchmarking enterprises.

2024-09-23 11:02:17

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is the key to stabilizing the development trend of the industry, steadily promoting capacity removal and realizing the "soft landing" of the industry under the background of a sharp decline in demand. "The more the economic downturn, the more stable employment, stable income, capacity is inevitable, but how to go to capacity is the way we can choose, the current solidification of the market, solidification of share, to maintain the basic efficiency of the industry is very critical.".

2024-09-18 11:20:28

At present, the cement industry is facing a huge challenge of intensified contradiction between supply and demand and overcapacity. In addition, in recent years, the state has resolutely curbed the blind development of the "two high" projects, and severely investigated and dealt with the problems existing in the "two high" projects. In the future, the cement industry needs to speed up the withdrawal of inefficient production capacity, strictly prohibit new production capacity, and continue to deepen structural adjustment in order to achieve high-quality and green development.

2024-09-13 09:42:45

It is necessary to prevent and correct the vicious competition of "involution" and create a clean and healthy environment for the development of cement industry. Cement industry can not engage in "involution" vicious competition, "volume" can not afford to "volume" can not win. To respect the market, technology and talents, today's cement industry should maintain a rational and scientific attitude than ever before.

2024-09-09 15:42:19

Strengthen industry self-discipline, create a standardized, orderly, stable and healthy development of the industry ecology; to strengthen policy regulation, adhere to the results-oriented, comprehensive measures to promote high-quality development of the industry. More than 20 persons in charge of leading enterprises such as Shanshui Group, Zhonglian Cement, Quanxing Energy and some small and medium-sized cement enterprises, as well as relevant persons in charge of the Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment and the Provincial Cement Industry Association attended the meeting.

2024-09-09 09:34:36

Recently, Jiangxi Cement Association issued the Proposal on Further Strengthening Industry Self-discipline and Preventing Involution Vicious Competition, which includes the following four points: 1. Recognize the industry situation and strengthen confidence in development; 2. Strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent vicious competition; 3. Firmly stagger peak production and alleviate the contradiction of surplus; 4. Accelerate transformation and upgrading and promote high-quality development. It is proposed that all cement enterprises in the province should recognize the situation and take the initiative to respond to it. The cement industry has entered a period of declining demand, which is the general trend of the economic development cycle and is irreversible in the short term.

2024-08-29 09:23:22

From a supply perspective. In 2024, the cement industry still showed a trend of "serious overcapacity". Although the expectation of environmental protection and low carbon still maintains the trend of "continuous overweight", "normalization of staggered peak production" and "carbon peak" have some constraints on the compression of cement supply in most regions, due to the overall weakening of market demand, the original production intensity of compressed cement has been difficult to reverse the current contradiction between supply and demand in a large scale, and the market. The effect of regulation and control on the supply side of superimposed peak staggering production is weakened, and the market competition is further intensified.

2024-08-28 11:34:46

The company will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation and industrial policies, optimize the strategic layout, promote the "vertical integration" expansion of the industrial chain, and build the ecological chain of the building materials industry. The company will deepen its main business, widely use digital intelligence technology and green technology, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the cement industry chain; Expand the industrial layout to promote the healthy development of the industry from the strategic height, expand the layout of the commercial concrete industry around the core areas, and further enhance the market influence and discourse power; precisely supplement the chain, combine the company's resource endowment, Industrial base, cultivate related diversified industries, and cultivate the second growth curve.

2024-08-28 11:00:03

Influenced by factors such as the continuous bottoming of real estate investment, the slowdown of infrastructure investment and the increase of seasonal rainfall in Jiangxi and the surrounding areas, the demand for cement in the market areas covered by Evergreen continued to be weak, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified competition, and the low price led to the continuous decline of industry efficiency. According to the Evergreen Announcement, through the organic combination of resource orientation and market regional characteristics, the company has achieved the integration of upstream and downstream development of the industrial chain.

2024-08-28 10:46:16

According to the report, in the second half of 2024, the external environment is still complex and severe, and the operation and development still face many risks and challenges. From the perspective of the industry, in the second half of the year, the marginal demand for cement improved, the supply compression continued to increase, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry was prominent. From the company's point of view, strategic opportunities and risks coexist, uncertainties increase, the complexity and severity of the business situation, the heavy and arduous tasks continue to intensify.

2024-08-27 11:20:44

The issuance of the Notice means that the capacity replacement in the iron and steel industry, which has been implemented for many years, has temporarily withdrawn from the historical stage, which has further triggered discussions in the industry on whether the implementation of capacity replacement in the cement industry should be suspended. Similar to the iron and steel industry, there are some problems that can not be ignored in the implementation of the cement industry capacity replacement method, so that in recent years, people in the industry have been calling for the suspension or modification of the cement industry capacity replacement method.

2024-08-23 14:21:38

In the short term, rigid peak staggering is the only way out for the cement industry. We must accurately stagger the peak and stop at the same time. If it is difficult to start at the same time, we should stop at the same time first. In the long run, further improving the concentration is an effective way to reduce production capacity in the cement industry.

2024-08-23 13:13:52

Seeing the title, some people are sure to say: "This is not true. A few years ago, everyone in the cement industry ushered in six years of good times in the process of sharing happiness." Is this really the case? As a typical cyclical industry, the development of cement industry is full of ups and downs. From the past experience, when the industry encounters a low ebb, it is easier for enterprises to form a consensus and deal with challenges together; however, after the industry recovers, it is difficult to maintain this spirit of unity.

2024-08-20 16:27:06

Jilin Provincial Building Materials Association advocates that enterprises in the industry should establish a sense of fair competition, abide by market rules, maintain good order in the industry, and resolutely resist unfair competition. At the same time, enterprises in the industry should strengthen their own construction, pay attention to technological innovation and brand building, and improve the quality of products and services, so as to improve the core competitiveness of enterprises.

2024-08-19 15:32:16

Demand is still weak, and concrete prices begin to decline.

2024-08-16 17:16:26

Due to the rainy weather in Zhejiang, the market demand is general, and the shipment volume is about 6-7%. In order to promote sales, some manufacturers reduce the price of cement, and try to push up the price to enhance market confidence, but the actual implementation remains to be observed. The overall market demand in Jiangsu has not improved significantly, with shipments hovering at 4-6% of normal production capacity. Manufacturers in southern Jiangsu have reduced prices for promotion, while the markets in northern and central Jiangsu are expected to face a downward trend.

2024-08-16 16:37:36

This lack of demand is the general trend of the economic cycle, which is irreversible in the short term. It is determined by the economic development cycle and is a problem in the process of development and transformation. The disorderly competition among enterprises leads to the meager profits of the whole industry. Therefore, we need to take the initiative to respond, maintain strategic strength, strengthen confidence in development, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, and jointly promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry.

2024-08-16 09:09:17

In order to further understand the requirements of the new national standard for cement products and promote relevant technical personnel to master the contents of the new standard, a training course on the new national standard for cement products sponsored by Hubei Cement Industry Association was held in Wuhan on August 13. A total of 88 trainees from 76 cement and commercial mixing enterprises in the province participated in the training. Entrusted by Deng Xikun, Secretary-General of Hubei Cement Industry Association, Wang Xingpeng, Deputy Secretary-General of the Association, made a mobilization speech, pointing out that one of the signs of "involution" vicious competition in the cement industry is low-price dumping, sacrificing quality and reducing costs.

2024-08-14 10:32:49

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.