水泥行业供需关系未来或将改善

2014-10-13 13:10:12

水泥需求9月逐渐进入传统旺季,今年由于市场资金紧张等因素影响,水泥需求回升略显缓慢,全国平均价格环比小幅提升0.4%,其中华东和中南地区价格季节性上调,华北和西南地区仍有所下降。

  水泥需求9月逐渐进入传统旺季,今年由于市场资金紧张等因素影响,水泥需求回升略显缓慢,全国平均价格环比小幅提升0.4%,其中华东和中南地区价格季节性上调,华北和西南地区仍有所下降。9月底全国水泥库容比水平较上月下降0.5个百分点至69.8%。10月预计水泥需求环比继续提升,价格仍将有所上行。近期房地产全面放松限贷政策带来了预期的改善,投资增速下滑情况或将有所好转,基建方面,4季度预计投资环比有所提升,整体水泥需求也将有所改善。长期来看,水泥新增产能不断放缓,现有产能也开始谋求绿色转型,未来水泥窑协同处置废弃物有较大发展空间。目前企业也在积极争取财税政策等方面的支持,环保业务的发展有望促进整个水泥行业的转型升级。同时,若水泥行业化解过剩产能相关政策能够得到较好的落实,也将会促进水泥行业的结构调整和供需关系改善。

  个股方面,长期关注具有低成本优势以及受益于未来行业资源整合的华东地区龙头海螺水泥,关注弹性较大以及大力发展水泥环保产业的华新水泥,以及受益京津冀大气污染防治以及一体化建设的金隅股份和冀东水泥。

  9 月传统旺季水泥需求缓慢恢复,价格环比有所上升:9 月底全国水泥平均价格为320 元/吨,价格环比上升0.4%,同比下跌4.9%。市场进入传统旺季,虽然需求恢复略显缓慢,但整体需求环比有所提升,加之企业推涨意愿较强,9 月份价格震荡上行。各地区水泥价格涨跌互现,华北和西南地区价格有所下滑,华东和中南地区价格上调,其他地区基本保持平稳。库存方面,9 月底全国水泥库容比约为69.8%,环比上月底下降了0.5 个百分点,较去年同期水平上升了3.2 个百分点。

  水泥需求平淡,产量增长速度放缓:2014 年1-8 月份全国水泥产量累计同比增长3.53%,达到15.92 亿吨。8 月份单月产量为2.25 亿吨,单月同比增长2.97%,环比增长0.82%。1-8 月份熟料产量累计同比增长4.81%,达9.45 亿吨。今年以来行业需求趋弱运行,水泥产量增速水平低于去年同期。

  地产投资累计增速继续下滑。截至2014 年8 月,我们跟踪的基建固定资产投资累计为6.51 万亿,累计同比增速为21.57%。2014 年前8月份道路运输业固定资产累计同比增长20.2%至1.44 万亿,铁路固定资产投资同比增长18.20%至3,702 亿元。其中基本建设投资同比增长7.5%至2,984 亿元。房地产方面,2014 年1-8月全国房地产开发投资完成额为5.9 万亿,累计同比增速为13.2%。1-8月房地产新开工面积累计同比下降10.5%,房屋施工面积累计同比增长11.5%。整体来看,今年以来房地产投资增速放缓对水泥行业需求影响较大,近期房地产全面放松限贷政策带来了预期的改善,投资增速下滑情况或将有所好转。

  新增产能继续放缓,行业共同遏制新建违规产能:2014 年上半年全国新增熟料产能3,106 万吨,考虑到下半年仍有约4,000 万吨熟料产能投放,预计全年将新增熟料产能7,000 万吨左右,占13 年底新型干法熟料产能比重为4.1%,产能增速继续放缓,新增产能仍将主要集中在西北和西南地区。今年7 月和8 月工信部公布了淘汰落后和过剩产能的企业第一、二批名单,今年合计将要淘汰水泥(熟料及磨机)产能8,496 万吨,其中河北地区占比最大,约为38.5%,而且大部分是磨机产能,有利于区域市场供需改善。此外,近期在水泥协会倡导下,444 家水泥企业签名承诺不新建违规产能,化解产能过剩矛盾,共同维护市场秩序和行业利益。

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As a traditional high energy consumption and high emission industry, the green development of cement industry is of great significance to promote the green transformation of Xinjiang. The Department of Ecology and Environment will actively support the cement industry to carry out ultra-low emission transformation and carbon reduction, increase guidance and assistance to enterprises, provide technical guidance and policy guidance, and make greater contributions to the ecological civilization and economic and social development of the country and the autonomous region.

2024-11-25 09:44:31

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Northwest China is mainly stable. In the middle of November, the temperature in Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang has dropped significantly, the market demand in some areas has come to an end, the impact of price changes on the market is limited, and there is no significant change in the external quotation of leading enterprises this week.

2024-11-22 17:32:34

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the early push up in the central and southern regions is not up to expectations. During the week, cement prices in many places in Guangdong generally began a new round of increase, and the quotation in Guangxi was stable and small. This week, the implementation of the push up in Hunan and Hubei is not ideal.

2024-11-22 17:30:12

According to the China Cement Market Data Center News, the price of cement in Sichuan, southwest China, is mixed; Yunnan is stable as a whole. Chongqing area has been pushing up since November, according to the feedback from leading enterprises, the price is relatively stable after the rise, and the enterprises that did not rise in place in the early stage have also increased by 20-30 yuan/ton in the near future.

2024-11-22 17:27:34

In the first three quarters of 2024, the overall performance of 18 listed companies continued to be poor, with almost all revenues declining, all profits of profitable enterprises declining, and nearly half of them falling into a loss state.

2024-11-22 16:15:43

"Strengthening industry self-discipline and coordination is to survive, not to get rich." A person in charge of a cement enterprise said frankly that if the enterprise is unsustainable, how can we talk about high-quality development? Industry self-discipline and synergy are not only the way to survive, but also the cornerstone of development.

2024-11-22 15:39:08

According to the tracking of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, some production lines will be put into operation until 2025, and no new lines will be put into operation in the fourth quarter. The overall supply pressure is controllable, but the contradiction between supply and demand is highlighted in the downward period of demand, and it is expected that the contradiction between excess capacity will continue to intensify.

2024-11-21 09:54:41

While seeing the success of the current price rise, the industry should also think about how to make a good start next year and how to develop steadily in the future. The author believes that in the current situation, active production control is the key to maintain a good situation in the cement industry. If production control can not be effectively implemented, even if the cement price is maintained at a relatively reasonable position at the end of this year, the cement price will still be difficult to maintain in the face of severe supply and demand situation after the beginning of next year.

2024-11-20 09:45:47

Recently, the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology and the Shaanxi Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the Notice on Normalized Peak-Staggered Production of Cement Industry in 2024-2025. All cement clinker production lines in Shaanxi Province are required to carry out peak staggering production in heating season (100 days) from December 1, 2024 to March 10, 2025; In the non-heating season, support the provincial cement association to take the lead, combine with the actual situation of market supply and demand and environmental protection in Shaanxi Province, fully consult with the clinker production enterprises, appropriately increase the number of days of peak staggering production, and ensure the smooth progress of normal peak staggering production throughout the year.

2024-11-18 09:33:42

As an important basic industry supporting the development of national economy, the cement industry should actively implement the spirit of the central policy documents, maintain a scientific and rational attitude, and resolutely resist the "involution" vicious competition. By building a healthy and orderly competitive environment, we can achieve efficient allocation of resources and sustainable development of the industry. This is not only a positive response to the central policy, but also an inherent demand to promote the transformation and upgrading of the cement industry and to move towards high-quality development.

2024-11-15 10:43:19

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the cement output from January to September in 2024 is 1326.7 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%; the industry expects that the profit of the whole industry in the first three quarters is only about 3.1 billion yuan, setting the worst record in decades. With the increasingly fierce competition among cement enterprises and the continuous decline of industry efficiency, how can enterprises adjust their development strategies, cross the industry cycle and usher in a new rise in performance? Only when you know yourself and your enemy can you fight a hundred battles with no danger of defeat. If we can accurately grasp the data of industry production and operation demand in real time, it will be the key factor for enterprises to achieve market breakthroughs.

2024-11-12 10:13:04

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

The Implementation Measures will prevent this part of production capacity from participating in replacement, which will force inefficient and shutdown production capacity to withdraw from the market, thus speeding up the process of capacity removal and alleviating the increasingly intensified contradiction between supply and demand.

2024-11-08 09:41:16

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

From the recent market situation, the overall cement industry in the fourth quarter has a better expectation, the company has certain advantages in cost control and other aspects, will better benefit from the current round of price recovery and the impact of the rising boom stage.

2024-11-05 11:03:06

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, in the central and southern regions, this week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta and Hainan regions continue to push up the cement price by 30-60 yuan/ton, and the implementation will wait and see; Guangxi region is planning to push up the cement price by 30-50 yuan/ton. After the two lakes region experienced many times of pushing up, the price was temporarily stable this week.

2024-11-01 17:35:36

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

The rising price of raw materials directly leads to the rising production cost of concrete (mortar) in Dongguan City. In view of the large fluctuation of raw material prices, the Association reminds all member units to strengthen communication with customers and inform customers of the fluctuation of raw material prices in a timely manner in order to avoid misunderstandings and disputes between supply and demand.

2024-11-01 11:56:06

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Compared with No.80, the Implementation Measures generally require more stringent, precise and standardized capacity replacement, which is of great significance for speeding up the removal of inefficient capacity, guiding the transformation and upgrading of the industry, and accelerating the promotion of high-quality development.

2024-10-31 17:39:56

A picture to understand the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in Cement and Glass Industry (2024 edition).

2024-10-31 11:05:15

The Implementation Measures adhere to systematic thinking and problem orientation, encourage the advanced and eliminate the backward, implement differentiated policies for different regions and varieties, optimize the industrial layout, and enhance the green and low-carbon level.

2024-10-31 09:15:54

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

Under the current supply and demand situation of the industry, strict implementation of off-peak production is still the key to maintain the stable development of the industry. According to its introduction, the number of off-peak production days in Chongqing this year may reach nearly 200 days, about 20 days more than last year. However, from the implementation of this year, two key problems need to be solved to promote off-peak production. 1、 Some small enterprises are not enthusiastic about participating. According to its introduction, large enterprises and some small enterprises in the region can strictly implement the peak-staggering production plan, but some small-scale cement enterprises, especially single-line enterprises, have poor enthusiasm for the implementation of peak-staggering production, which makes it difficult to implement the regional peak-staggering production as a whole.

2024-10-15 14:42:58

The establishment of OCC is highly recognized by cement enterprises. Under the current complex and changeable market environment, the cement industry urgently needs such an authoritative organization to lead the industry to a healthy development path of "anti-involution" and "anti-dumping".

2024-09-30 11:32:39

Anti-involution is not only a countermeasure to the current predicament, but also the only way for the long-term development of the cement industry. It means that the industry should withdraw from the quagmire of disorderly competition and move towards an orderly, healthy and sustainable development path. Cement enterprises are required to strengthen industry self-discipline, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, actively respond, maintain strategic strength and firm confidence in development.

2024-09-29 14:54:09

Anti-involution is not only a countermeasure to the current predicament, but also the only way for the long-term development of the cement industry. It means that the industry should withdraw from the quagmire of disorderly competition and move towards an orderly, healthy and sustainable development path. Cement enterprises are required to strengthen industry self-discipline, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, actively respond, maintain strategic strength and firm confidence in development.

2024-09-29 11:06:16

Demand declined, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the domestic cement market as a whole was depressed in the first half of the year. However, from a regional perspective, the price situation in the northern region is relatively good, especially in Xinjiang, the three eastern provinces, eastern Mongolia and Hebei, where cement prices are at a relatively high level. Taking Hebei as an example, the big data of China Cement Network show that the overall cement market in Hebei has shown a steady upward trend since this year, and the development trend of the industry is relatively stable. Local cement enterprises said that at present, the bulk ex-factory price of Hebei P.O42.5 cement is basically maintained at 310-330 yuan/ton. "Although it can not be compared with the peak period, in the current industry environment, it has been

2024-09-27 17:30:26

According to the Announcement of Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment on Adjusting the Inclusion Standards of Chongqing Carbon Market (Yuhuan [2023] 55), the original list of Chongqing Carbon Market is updated according to the inclusion standards of industrial enterprises whose annual greenhouse gas emissions reach 13000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (about 5000 tons of standard coal for comprehensive energy consumption) and above. A list of key emission units (hereinafter referred to as key emission units) in Chongqing carbon market in 2023 has been formed, and 334 key emission units have been included in the quota management in 2023.

2024-09-25 14:44:14

At present, Sichuan is speeding up the development of green low-carbon new productivity and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the cement industry. In recent years, Sichuan's industrial sector has vigorously promoted the construction of a full-cycle and full-process green manufacturing system, and continued to carry out the gradient cultivation of green manufacturing demonstration units. The province's cement industry has created a total of 11 national green factories and 35 provincial green factories. One cement enterprise has successfully entered the national energy efficiency "leader" and two cement enterprises have been rated as provincial energy saving and carbon reduction benchmarking enterprises.

2024-09-23 11:02:17

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is the key to stabilizing the development trend of the industry, steadily promoting capacity removal and realizing the "soft landing" of the industry under the background of a sharp decline in demand. "The more the economic downturn, the more stable employment, stable income, capacity is inevitable, but how to go to capacity is the way we can choose, the current solidification of the market, solidification of share, to maintain the basic efficiency of the industry is very critical.".

2024-09-18 11:20:28

At present, the cement industry is facing a huge challenge of intensified contradiction between supply and demand and overcapacity. In addition, in recent years, the state has resolutely curbed the blind development of the "two high" projects, and severely investigated and dealt with the problems existing in the "two high" projects. In the future, the cement industry needs to speed up the withdrawal of inefficient production capacity, strictly prohibit new production capacity, and continue to deepen structural adjustment in order to achieve high-quality and green development.

2024-09-13 09:42:45

It is necessary to prevent and correct the vicious competition of "involution" and create a clean and healthy environment for the development of cement industry. Cement industry can not engage in "involution" vicious competition, "volume" can not afford to "volume" can not win. To respect the market, technology and talents, today's cement industry should maintain a rational and scientific attitude than ever before.

2024-09-09 15:42:19

Strengthen industry self-discipline, create a standardized, orderly, stable and healthy development of the industry ecology; to strengthen policy regulation, adhere to the results-oriented, comprehensive measures to promote high-quality development of the industry. More than 20 persons in charge of leading enterprises such as Shanshui Group, Zhonglian Cement, Quanxing Energy and some small and medium-sized cement enterprises, as well as relevant persons in charge of the Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment and the Provincial Cement Industry Association attended the meeting.

2024-09-09 09:34:36