On March 28, Shao Jun, Chairman of China Cement Network, and his delegation visited China Gezhouba Group Cement Co., Ltd. and were warmly received by Yang Dan, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and General Manager of the company. The two sides conducted in-depth exchanges on the situation of Hubei cement industry and the future development direction of the industry.
Yang Dan welcomed the arrival of Shao Jun and his delegation, and agreed with China Cement Network's long-term efforts to promote the healthy development of the industry relying on the advantages of the platform. Yang Dan said that serious overcapacity is the core problem facing the current industry, and from the future trend of cement demand, overcapacity may be more serious.
According to Yang Dan, if calculated according to the annual demand decline of 5%, the national cement demand will be reduced to about 1.3 billion tons by 2030. In this context, the number of off-peak production days needs to increase by about 15 days per year to maintain the current supply and demand situation, which is very difficult. This is a relatively optimistic estimate. In fact, the domestic demand for cement may fall by 7%. It is expected that the demand for cement in Hubei will fall by about 7% in 2025. This is the current demand situation that the industry needs to face for a long time in the future.
Yang Dan said that in the context of serious overcapacity in the industry, the industry has gradually formed a lot of consensus, such as: insisting on peak staggering production, strengthening enterprise exchanges, giving consideration to both efficiency and sales, and continuously improving capacity concentration, etc. However, even with so many consensus, it is still difficult for the industry to be rational in self-discipline. Yang Dan appealed to the industry that "large enterprises should stress style and small enterprises should stress rules", whether rigid or rational constraints, industry self-discipline needs to be strengthened.
In view of the current situation of the industry, Yang Dan appealed:
1. Stop capacity replacement, especially cross-provincial capacity replacement, the industry has been in a "prisoner's dilemma", to put capacity into practice, in order to cope with the downward trend of demand;
2. The industry has extended from "cement roll" to "whole industry chain roll", including "aggregate roll" and "commercial mix roll", and the enterprises in the industry need to refuse the vicious competition of "internal roll";
3. Maintain a reasonable price and increase or decrease the price rationally. When it rises, it should not be too fierce, and when it falls, it should not be too crazy. The price of cement should be controlled in a reasonable range of 5% -8% to maintain the profit margin, which can not only resist the entry of external cement, but also obtain certain profit returns. Employees have income, enterprises have profits, and the government has tax revenue.
Shao Jun agrees with Yang Dan's point of view. According to chatCEM, the latest artificial intelligence platform for the cement industry launched by China Cement Network, the demand for cement in China is expected to drop by about 8% in 2025. Under the realistic background of declining cement demand and further aggravation of overcapacity, the cement industry can only cross the cycle and break through the predicament by improving its resilience and strengthening its confidence. In the second half of 2024, the operation situation of the industry was obviously better than that in the first half of the year, thanks to the unremitting efforts made by the industry in "anti-involution".
In the future, China Cement Network will continue to play its professional advantages in the field of industry digitalization, provide all kinds of data for the industry, and enable the transformation and upgrading of the cement industry with "AI industry brain + digital factory".
The two sides agreed that they would continue to strengthen communication and cooperation in the future and work together to promote the high-quality development of the industry.
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