[原创]湖北:政策引导优化存量 三雄并立有序竞争

2014-08-12 09:24:30

今年以来,全国水泥价格持续回落,特别是长江流域水泥价格下滑幅度远超全国水平。湖北省地处长江中游,是长江流域价格高地,然而今年湖北省水泥价格也同样呈现持续下跌的走势,笔者近期以黄石为起点,循江而上武汉,入荆门,过宜昌,纵深全省深入调研主要水泥生产地与消费地的市场情况,走访区域龙头企业,以期呈现湖北省当前的供需格局与市场竞争态势。

  湖北省位于我国中部,与六省接壤(东连安徽,东南邻江西、湖南,西连重庆,西北与陕西为邻,北接河南),是中部崛起的脊梁地带,有着承东启西、沟通南北的绝佳区位。湖北省也是我国水泥工业的起源地之一,省内东西北三面环山,石灰石资源丰富,长江横贯全省,水路运输便捷,湖北最早的水泥厂--湖北水泥厂便是依托于资源与长江航运建厂。

  今年以来,全国水泥价格持续回落,特别是长江流域水泥价格下滑幅度远超全国水平。湖北省地处长江中游,是长江流域价格高地,然而今年湖北省水泥价格也同样呈现持续下跌的走势,据统计,今年前7个月湖北省P.O 42.5散装水泥价格下跌了近60元/吨。笔者近期以黄石为起点,循江而上武汉,入荆门,过宜昌,纵深全省深入调研主要水泥生产地与消费地的市场情况,走访区域龙头企业,以期呈现湖北省当前的供需格局与市场竞争态势。

一、需求放缓产能严控 外省冲击增大

1.1 需求:产量增速放缓,武汉需求一家独大

  自2010年以来,湖北省水泥产量增速连年走低。据湖北省建材工业协会数据,2013年,湖北省水泥产量达到1.1亿吨,总量全国排名第10位,而同比增速仅5.33%,低于全国4.24个百分点,创近十年来新低。2014年1~6月,湖北省生产水泥5174.73万吨,同比增长5.19%。

图1:湖北省产量增速2010年来连年走低,2013年创历史新低(%)

资料来源:湖北省建材工业协会

  2013年底,湖北省常住人口为5799万人,据走访企业测算,2013年湖北省水泥需求大概为1.15亿吨。其中,2013年的1.1亿吨水泥产量基本上是本省消化,此外大概有500万吨水泥从邻近省份流入,流入的熟料更多,超过1000万吨。

表1:2013湖北水泥市场消费情况(万吨)

资料来源:中国水泥研究院调研资料整理

  湖北各市经济发展不平衡状况非常明显,已经呈现出武汉市一家独家的局面。武汉市固定资产投资完成额占全省固定资产投资完成额的比重虽逐年降低但依然高居30%以上,2013年该比例为31.9%。房地产投资方面,武汉市所占的比重更甚,2013年为58%。水泥需求与固定资产投资密切相关,据走访企业估计,湖北省水泥消费有50%的集中于武汉地区,省域副中心城市襄阳、宜昌水泥需求占到20%以上,三大城市决定了湖北省水泥需求的走向。

图2:湖北省水泥消费情况分布

资料来源:湖北省建材工业协会


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Correlation

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose by about 20-30 yuan/ton in a large area this week, while those in Guangxi were temporarily stable after the rise. This week, the price of cement in Hunan was pushed up again, and the price of cement in eastern Hubei was planned to be raised again by about 30 yuan/ton in order to restore the previous target.

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Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

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How is the cement industry in Hubei? Faced with the current situation, what are the views of cement enterprises in the region?

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