First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon re-feeding was 43000 yuan/ton, and the ring ratio was flat; The average price of N-type granular silicon was yuan/ton 40000, down 0.74% from the previous month, and the price of mainstream silicon materials was stable and small, maintaining a stable and weak operation situation as a whole. On the supply side, the expected reduction in production of silicon materials continued to materialize, and the output continued to decline; on the demand side, the downstream silicon wafer enterprises had sufficient inventory, were more cautious in purchasing, and the transaction volume was still not increased. The inventory of silicon materials enterprises was running at a high level, and it was difficult to reduce in the short term.
Figure 1: N-type Polysilicon Re-feeding Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: N-type Granular Silicon Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy Dat According to the data of aBM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules is 0.71 yuan/W, which is flat annually. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 R PV modules was 0.73 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 7.35% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of HJT double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.70 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, down 2.78% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of BC double-sided 210R module is 0.82 yuan/W, which is flat. Last week, the follow-up of new orders was still insufficient, overseas policies were approaching the window period, terminal demand was still weak, and component prices were temporarily stable.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon dropped. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9310 yuan/ton, down 0.53% month-on-month and 4.02% year-on-year. The dry season in southwest China is approaching, and the cost is expected to increase, but the downstream polysilicon production reduction continues, the demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, the overall consumption remains weak, and the price of industrial silicon declines slightly. In terms of
polysilicon, a closed-door forum for enterprises in Qinghai region was held last week to follow up the implementation of the Hangzhou Conference's self-discipline plan for production reduction. The Northwest Base took turns to overhaul and suspend the restart of idle production lines. The expectation of supply contraction was further strengthened, and the spot price of silicon materials was weak and stable. At the
futures end, the market continued to play a game to reduce production, and the market fluctuated repeatedly between strong expectations and high inventory, and the pattern of discount between futures and spot continued. At the spot end, the transactions were still dominated by long order delivery and small orders just needed by silicon wafer factories, and the traders were in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the market transactions were relatively light.
This round of price stabilization relies on the upstream reduction of production and price support, not driven by the improvement of terminal demand. The silicon wafer sector still gives priority to destocking, and there is no obvious volume of orders for batteries and components. The sustainability of price support remains to be verified by downstream demand.
Looking ahead to this week (10.26-10.30), the focus of the market will shift to the progress of maintenance landing, inventory changes and downstream purchasing rhythm in Qinghai and other places. In the short term, the upstream adheres to the bottom line of quotation, the low-price supply is basically cleared, and the spot support is strong; however, the pressure of silicon wafer inventory still exists, the willingness to take goods at a high price is weak, and it is expected that the spot probability will be weak and stable, and the futures will follow the fluctuation of spot sentiment. At present, the focus of the game is still whether the reduction of production can effectively drive the decline of high inventory. If the maintenance continues and the inventory turning point appears, there is an opportunity for resonance repair. If the implementation of production reduction falls short of expectations, the factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic terminal orders are weak, there is still a risk of pressure on the market. The follow-up needs to focus on tracking the load reduction progress of silicon material enterprises, spot trading volume, silicon wafer start-up rate and futures warehouse receipt changes and other variables.
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