Market slump, demand into the empty window period, after SNEC, photovoltaic industry will meet the "big test"?

After half a year's vigorous "531 rush to install", the annual SNEC photovoltaic exhibition, known as the "photovoltaic Spring Festival Gala", has just come.

According to past experience, SNEC

Taking components as an example, at the end of May before this key node, it was reported that some component manufacturers in the photovoltaic industry announced that they would raise prices, with an increase of 0.01-0.

For this round of price increases, the industry has given two explanations: on the one hand, the production capacity of each company has contracted more. There is a temporary shortage ; on the other hand, it is to prepare for the upcoming SNEC photovoltaic exhibition.

However, according to the digital new energy DataBM, the purchase order is not optimistic . At present, the purchasers basically hold a wait-and-see attitude, waiting for the industry situation after the SNEC exhibition.

Looking back on the situation in the first five months of this year, according to the statistics of digital new energy DataBM. Com. From January to May this year, the average transaction price of PV modules was mainly 0.60-0.

The average price of TOPCon modules was 0.66-0.75 yuan/watt; the average price of BC modules was 0.73-0.80 yuan/watt; Average price of HJT module is 0.72-0.

According to Digital New Energy DataBM, the procurement of distributed components has come to a standstill , and whether the centralized market will grow significantly in the third quarter remains to be tracked and observed.

In addition, according to Digital New Energy DataBM. Although some manufacturers try to report a rise, the price decline is hard to stop.

Although the centralized performance in component price changes is slightly slow due to the procurement process and other reasons, the component calibration price range in May has moved down compared with April, and the price range has reached

0.65-0. The domestic photovoltaic market will face a rapid decline in demand after the "rush to install" heat fades from the "big test of the industry"

.

Industry insiders basically agree that after "531", distributed photovoltaic, especially household photovoltaic, will stagnate for a period of time.

" June to August or September may enter an empty window period ," Niu Yanyan, president of Longji Green Energy Distributed Business in China, said in a recent interview with the media, "It is the industry's digestion and thinking period of document 136, and we need to consider how to transform the follow-up business." In its previous interaction with investors

, Tongwei said that the end of the "era" of distributed photovoltaic full access to the Internet in the second half of the year may have a certain impact on domestic distributed demand in the short term. Shrinking

demand will bring about a decline in prices, according to Digital New Energy DataBM.

Photovoltaic enterprises will also face a thorny problem when facing the situation of falling demand and prices-what to do with the projects under construction? Databm.

According to Digital New Energy DataBM., 14 projects have been postponed to 2025, mainly in June and December this year.

The original plan was extended to 0 HT in June 2025." ML0 UNK1 3 Tianyang New Material Kunshan 1.0 HTML0 UNK1 4 The above two projects actually represent two ways out for the postponed photovoltaic projects: 0 HTML0 UNK1 5 whether to terminate 0 HTML0 UNK1 6, 0 HTML0 UNK1 7 whether to continue to postpone 0 HTML0 UNK1 8. However, these two options have their own advantages and disadvantages. One is to stop the loss in time, but the initial investment is basically wasted; the other is to wait for the project, but the project restart time is uncertain, and the funds are occupied for a long time. 0 HTML 0 UNK2 0 how to choose enterprises, in addition to considering their own strength, there is also a judgment on the future of the photovoltaic industry. 0 HTML0 UNK2 1 When will the industry winter end? 0 HTML 0 UNK2 2 However, since the second half of last year, the head enterprises have fewer predictions about when the photovoltaic industry will recover, either for fear of "hitting the face" or because of the complex development of the industry. Recently, however, several photovoltaic companies have "boldly opened wheat" and expressed their views on the above issues. 0 HTML0 UNK2 3 "We expect the industry 0 HTML0 UNK2 4 to see the dawn in the second half of this year 0 HTML0 UNK2 5, 0 HTML0 UNK2 6, but it will take time for production capacity to be fully cleared, perhaps next year," said Yan Hu, vice chairman of Tongwei at its 2024 annual general meeting. 0 HTML 0 UNK2 7 "0 HTML 0 UNK2 8" China's photovoltaic industry has grown out of nothing, from small to large, from catching up to flat running and then to leading. During this period, the photovoltaic industry has undergone several adjustments, but this adjustment is not the same. After the completion of this adjustment, 0 HTML 0 UNK2 9 industry will enter a normal stage of development, and the era of windfall profits will be gone forever.

"Jingao Technology" coincides with the above view. According to the record of investor relations activities released on May 13, Jingao Technologies believes that China's photovoltaic industry is entering the final stage of this downward cycle and should be able to improve by the third or fourth quarter of this year; But substantial liquidation or rebalancing may take longer.

According to Otway, At present, the backward production capacity of some enterprises with difficulties in operation in the industry has been gradually cleared, but the overall clearance progress and rhythm of the photovoltaic industry can not be predicted. However, the company said: "Due to the accumulation of new technologies in the industry for two consecutive years, it has formed a generation advantage, and it is expected that some projects will be restarted in 26 years.". "

Postscript

" 531 "after the heat, although the photovoltaic market demand has a certain impact, the author believes that there is no need to be pessimistic, because this impact is only short-term.

Here we can refer to the "531 New Deal of Photovoltaic" in 2018, when everyone thought it was the dark moment of photovoltaic development in China. But looking back on the past, it is precisely because this policy has promoted the transformation and development of the photovoltaic industry and the arrival of the era of parity access to the Internet.

At present, through the signals released by photovoltaic enterprises, it can be seen that the industry has been very rational and optimistic in the face of the new "531" policy, believing that the overall market is still good after "531". As the industry leaders believe, the short window period may be a good opportunity for enterprises to think about business transformation.