Silicon material rises, silicon wafer rises, component rises … Is the "bottoming rebound" of photovoltaic market coming?

At present, the "anti-involution" of photovoltaic industry no longer relies solely on the appeal of associations and self-discipline of enterprises, but has risen to the level of national action. In the second half of the year, "anti-involution" has also become the focus of the whole photovoltaic industry.

In July, the "anti-involution" work of China's photovoltaic industry entered a historic key node.

From the market point of view, all links have ushered in a "Jedi rebound"-upstream silicon materials, silicon wafers and batteries have risen successively.

Silicon material prices rose 5 times in a row, and the average transaction price rose back to more than 42 thousand yuan/ton ; The prices of silicon wafers and batteries have risen three times in a row. The average transaction price rose to more than 1.2 yuan/piece and 0.285 yuan/watt respectively; Component prices are affected by the transmission of upstream price increases, showing a trend of overall price increases. At present, the lowest average price is 0.

According to Digital New Energy DataBM.

In the distributed market, 24, Sichuan Huadian Liangshan Yanyuan Baiwu Phase II and other 640 MW photovoltaic power generation projects announced the bidding results of photovoltaic module procurement, and GCL Integration won the bid at a unit price of 0.708 yuan/watt ; On July 26 , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. announced the successful candidates for the second batch of photovoltaic module procurement in 2025, and Jingao Science and Technology and Hengdian Dongci were shortlisted. According to the previous statistics of the Digital New Energy DataBM. Com, the bidding unit price was 0.73 yuan per watt and 0.73

yuan per watt respectively . The market value of 111 photovoltaic listed companies has risen by hundreds of billions of yuan , and most of them have returned to the level at the beginning of the year. Some even exceeded the market value at the beginning of the year (click "). Has the photovoltaic industry really begun to come out of the "darkest period"?

Taking the PV module sector as an example, according to the

distributed market of digital new energy DataBM, due to the uncertainty of the current electricity price policy and the rising cost of modules, the procurement demand for small distributed projects continues to decline. The demand of head manufacturers mostly comes from centralized and industrial and commercial power station projects, while the orders of small manufacturers are obviously decreasing day by day. In the

centralized market, according to the incomplete statistics of the digital new energy DataBM. Com, the calibration capacity in July was about 5.4GW , which was 80% lower than previous month. Year-on-year decline of 23.7 Photovoltaic module tender capacity of 25.

As written above, At present, some manufacturers of head components have suspended their previous low-price contracts. At the same time, a large number of contracts signed before the rise have not been executed, and "breach of contract" and "breach of contract" reappear .

Digital new energy DataBM.

At the same time, according to industry sources, despite the current policy tightening, there are still Yin-Yang contracts in the photovoltaic market, although not as blatant as in the past, but there are still some.

In addition, the news about the "anti-involution" of the photovoltaic industry is also mixed. On the evening

of July 29, the news that the overall situation of silicon material storage had been decided caused a sensation in the whole photovoltaic circle, but then the China Photovoltaic Industry Association urgently refuted the rumor and clarified it. Please do not believe the rumor or spread the rumor.

Then there were media reports that the production capacity of 1.25 million tons of silicon materials might be withdrawn, and the purchase price was 800 million yuan/10,000 tons; Reuters reported the exclusive disclosure of a silicon material enterprise in China; at the same time, the research and exchange records of a silicon material leader were circulated in the market..

In the end which is true and which is false, apart from the above clarification of the association, the rest of the time the official basically remained silent.

Postscript

With the emergence of various chaotic phenomena, the current market has many different views on the "anti-involution" action of photovoltaic, believing that the market problems should be solved by the market. But there is no doubt that the photovoltaic industry has been struggling for a long time in the quagmire of involution competition, which is more like a "person of internal friction"-only consumption, but not solving practical problems, and then giving birth to the vicious ecology of "bad money expelling good money". The harm caused by the endless "involution" of

photovoltaic industry is not only a waste of resources, but also a systematic harm to economic security, technological sovereignty and environmental governance, which threatens the transformation of national energy strategy. Therefore, it is urgent for the government to extend its "visible hand", pull it out, force the bottom line of competition, break the vicious cycle of involution, coordinate with the "invisible hand" of the market, and promote the orderly, rational and high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry.

The current chaos and temporary weak demand may still give rise to doubts, fearing that the supply-side reform of the photovoltaic industry will eventually be reduced to "self-touching". However, the author believes that it is only a matter of time before the government has a response to the downstream demand side.