First, the price trend
of silicon materials last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon re-feeding was 43000 yuan/ton, and the ring ratio was flat; The average price of N-type granular silicon is yuan/ton 40300, which is flat compared with the previous month. The mainstream silicon material price has maintained a high level for three consecutive weeks after the breakthrough rise at the end of September, which is relatively strong. From the perspective of the supply side, the expected reduction in production of silicon materials is gradually realized, and the output is declining; from the perspective of the demand side, the downstream silicon wafer enterprises continue to purchase just in need, and the replenishment actions in the trade link still exist, but the transactions are mainly in small batches and just in need, and the market as a whole is in the stalemate stage of "supply contraction, demand wait-and-see".
Figure 1: N-type Polysilicon Re-feeding Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: N-type Granular Silicon Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy Dat ABM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules is 0.71 yuan/W, down 1.39% annually. The price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 R PV modules was 0.73 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, up 7.35% on a year-on-year basis; the price index of HJT double-sided 210 PV modules was 0.70 yuan/W, flat on a month-on-month basis, down 2.78% on a year-on-year basis; The price index of BC double-sided 210R photovoltaic modules was 0.82 yuan/W, which was flat.
After the festival, the terminal market recovery is limited, the follow-up of new orders is insufficient, the market transactions mostly rely on the old orders in the early stage, and the component price is stable and weak this week, which is in contrast to the pattern of the silicon material end continuing to rise and the high quotation, reflecting that the transmission of the silicon material end price increase to the component end is not smooth, and it is difficult for the downstream to follow up synchronously under the background of weak terminal orders.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon was stable. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9360 yuan/ton, which was flat on a month-on-month basis, down 3.26% on a year-on-year basis. This week, the output of industrial silicon increased slightly, the downstream polysilicon production was reduced, the demand for organic silicon and aluminium alloy was stable, and the overall consumption remained weak, but the price of industrial silicon was temporarily stable due to the support of the cost side. In terms of
polysilicon, the leading enterprises recently held a closed-door meeting in Hangzhou to further implement the industry's anti-involution rules. Supported by the gradual reduction of production, the prices of N-type compound feeding and granular silicon were both flat. At the futures end, the market has doubts about the execution of self-discipline price, the main contract price fluctuates downward in the week, and the discount between futures and spot is obviously expanding; at the spot end, the downstream is dominated by small orders just needed, the large-scale replenishment has not yet started, the wait-and-see sentiment in the trade link is strong, and the overall transaction is still light. However, the stability of the spot price in this round mainly depends on the reduction of production at the production side rather than substantial recovery of demand: the silicon wafer factories still use destocking instead of replenishment, the orders for terminal batteries and components have not seen a significant volume, and the sustainability of the spot price still needs to be verified by the demand side.
Looking ahead to this week (10.19-10.23), the focus of the market will shift to the actual implementation of production cuts in October and the landing effect of self-discipline at the Hangzhou Conference. In the short term, the upstream price will be firm, the cost bottom line forms psychological support, futures have been substantially discounted spot, and the downward space is limited. However, the downstream silicon wafer inventory is still at a high level, the willingness to take goods at a high price is weak, and the spot transaction maintains a small demand. It is expected that the spot price will be dominated this week, and the futures will repeatedly bottom near the cash cost. At present, the focus of the market game is still "whether the production reduction can catch up with the high inventory". If the implementation of production reduction falls short of expectations, the factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the orders of superimposed terminal components are suppressed by weakness, the futures still have the risk of exploring the cash cost. If the implementation of production reduction is intensified, the inventory turning point appears, and the superimposed low capital enters the market, the futures and cash are expected to be repaired by resonance. The follow-up needs to focus on tracking the actual progress of enterprise load reduction, the trend of factory inventory, the adjustment of silicon wafer start-up rate and the change of futures warehouse receipts.
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