of
Silicon Materials Last week, the average price of N-type polysilicon for recharging was RMB/ton 43000, which was flat on a month-on-month basis; the average price of N-type granular silicon was RMB/ton 40300, which was 0.75% higher on a month-on-month basis, making up for the previous decline. On the whole, the price of mainstream silicon materials remained stable. From the supply side, the southwest entered the dry season, some bases in the northwest took turns to overhaul, and the output maintained a downward trend; from the demand side, the silicon wafer factory mainly digested its own inventory, purchased only small orders just needed, few market transactions, and the inventory of silicon material enterprises was still accumulating.
Figure 1: N-type Polysilicon Re-feeding Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 2: N-type Granular Silicon Price Trend
Data Source: Digital New Energy Dat ABM. Com
II, Demand and Price Outlook
Digital New Energy DataBM. Com data show that the price index of TOPCon double-sided 210 photovoltaic modules is 0.7 yuan/W, down 1.41% annually. Year-on-year increase of 2.94%; TOPCon double-sided 210 R was RMB0.72/W, a decrease of 1.37% on a month-on-month basis and a year-on-year increase of 5.88%; HJT double-sided 210 was RMB0.70/W, flat on a month-on-month basis and a year-on-year decrease of 2.78%; BC double-sided 210R was RMB0.81/W, a decrease of 1.22% on a month-on-month basis and a year-on-year increase of 8.00%. The terminal installation is still in the doldrums, the follow-up of new orders is insufficient, and the price center of gravity of the component factory has moved down in order to guarantee a small price concession for shipment.
Table 1: Last Friday's Photovoltaic Module Price Index (CPMPI)
Data Source: Digital New Energy DataBM. Com
Figure 3: Trend of
Photovoltaic Module Price Index in the Past Month Data Source: Cement Big Data (HTTPS ://data. Ccement. Com/)
Last week, the price of industrial silicon stopped falling and was temporarily stable. The average price of Si4210 industrial silicon was 9310 yuan/ton, which was flat on a month-on-month basis and 4.19% lower on a year-on-year basis. With the approaching of the southwest dry season, the increase in electricity price is expected to raise the cost, and the willingness of silicon factories to make price concessions has weakened; the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon start-up have dropped, the demand for aluminum alloy has been stable, and the procurement is mainly a small amount of replenishment. The cost is supported, the demand is not incremental, and the short-term market is dominated. In terms of
polysilicon, the seesaw of high inventory and weak reality has not yet been decided. On the supply side, the overhaul of some bases in the northwest has not been completed, and the market is expected to continue to reduce the production schedule in November, but the formal plan has not yet been implemented; on the demand side, the price of silicon wafers has fallen, the loss of crystal pulling has expanded, the acceptance of high-priced silicon materials is low, and the transactions are concentrated in the low-priced range. At the futures end, the market switched repeatedly between the expectation of production reduction and the pressure of inventory, and the pattern of the main discount spot remained unchanged; at the spot end, long orders were executed normally, scattered orders were sporadic, and traders basically did not enter the market. At present, the price is stable for the time being, mainly depending on the upstream production restriction and price, rather than improvement of orders. If the stock of silicon wafers does not fall, the foundation for the price of silicon materials will not be solid.
Looking ahead to this week (11.2-11.6), we need to focus on three points: whether the production reduction in November can fall into the production schedule, whether the inventory of silicon material plants will peak, and whether the production of silicon wafers will be reduced again. In the short term, the upstream holds the bottom line of quotation, the supply of low-price goods is not much, the downward space of spot goods is limited, and the temporary stable pattern is likely to be maintained. However, the component price has been loosened first, and if the terminal orders continue to be absent, the pressure will return from the bottom to the top. The key to the game is whether the speed of production reduction can win the inventory accumulation. If the production schedule is substantially lowered in November and the inventory turning point occurs, there is a stage repair window in the future; if the production reduction stops in words and the inventory continues to rise, the risk of silicon material making up for the fall cannot be ruled out. Follow-up tracking of variables such as monthly production of silicon materials, operating rate of silicon wafers, bidding rhythm of components and changes in futures warehouse receipts.
浙公网安备33010802003254号