At present, "anti-involution" has become a hot topic for many photovoltaic practitioners.
According to Digital New Energy DataBM. However, due to the continued weakness of terminal demand, the price rise has slowed down, and the links such as batteries and components have shown signs of loosening. (For details, please click: PV module price rally is now fatigue )
Follow-up, how do securities dealers view this vigorous anti-involution action? Can photovoltaic anti-involution successfully boost the rational price recovery ? What other factors are needed ? Where are the new opportunities for photovoltaic enterprises ?
Minsheng Securities: The disorderly "price war" in the photovoltaic industry ushered in a standardized turning point
. Since June, the overall trend of the photovoltaic sector has been strong . Minsheng Securities believes that it is mainly affected by the intensive voice of the state against "anti-involution" and the price recovery of the industrial chain.
CITIC Securities: "Anti-involution" has an immediate effect, and "capacity reduction" is not an overnight success
. Under the policy initiative of "anti-involution", the price of silicon wafers has risen recently. In the report
, CITIC Securities predicted that due to the transmission effect of the centralized adjustment of the upstream silicon material quotation, the follow-up batteries, components, and even some auxiliary materials will also have a favorable price and price increase . At the same time, based on the expectation of supply chain price increase, channel providers and power station terminals may also take certain purchasing and warehousing actions .
However, there is still uncertainty in the market when demand growth slows down in the short and medium term.
Especially, the domestic photovoltaic industry has just experienced a rush to install, the demand has fallen, and after the implementation of the green electricity market trading policy, the terminal yield may decline and the tolerance of supply chain price increase is limited . The follow-up actual transaction price (considering tie-in, full gift and other concessions) and the ability of further favorable price remain to be seen .
CITIC Securities believes that only under the premise of strict control of backward production capacity, the relationship between supply and demand in the market has been substantially improved , and the price of the industrial chain has the ability to further rebound.
Changjiang Securities: The next step may be to limit production and sales to further restrict supply
. Recently, by comparing the historical experience of other industries, Changjiang Securities said that in the current round of photovoltaic anti-involution process, the next step is expected to be the strict implementation of the production and sales restriction scheme. Further optimize the supply and demand of the industry, promote the price rise of the industrial chain , and constitute the next step of market catalysis.
For the strictness of the scheme, Changjiang Securities is expected to be higher than quota system proposed in Q4 last year to effectively support the price of the industrial chain; at the same time, the binding force of the production limit scheme is expected to be further enhanced.In terms of
supervision, Changjiang Securities said that it could achieve enterprise supervision by detecting power consumption and other indicators. The effective implementation of the production restriction scheme can be ensured by punishing the enterprises that violate the regulations by means of fines, increasing the intensity of production restriction or requiring the suspension of production and rectification, and credit punishment , and incorporating the results of production restriction into the local performance appraisal.
CITIC Securities: Technological innovation is the fundamental solution
to eliminate involution competition. CITIC Securities pointed out that "anti-involution" has become a national strategic action, while the photovoltaic industry is facing prominent problems due to homogeneous low-price competition and periodic overcapacity . Become the core position of this round of "anti-involution" .
Huatai Securities: Energy consumption control + capacity storage, boosting the orderly withdrawal
of backward production capacity Huatai Securities said that energy consumption indicators may be an important starting point for capacity clearance. The stock and new production capacity may be controlled in the future, and coordinated with the storage of production capacity to drive the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. According to the
research report, at the CPIA Datong Seminar held in July, Yan Dazhou, director of the National Engineering Laboratory of Polysilicon Material Preparation Technology, said that the revision of the comprehensive energy consumption standard for polysilicon unit products was being promoted, which Huatai Securities believed was mainly focused on restricting new production capacity .Previously
, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a list of special energy-saving monitoring tasks for polysilicon, involving 41 silicon enterprises, which Huatai Securities believes will be followed up or control the energy consumption of stock capacity.
Shen Wanhongyuan: In the stage of policy implementation, silicon materials have become an important starting point
. Since the sixth meeting of the Central Committee on Finance and Economics on July 1, various policies have been gradually implemented. Shen Wanhongyuan said in a recent securities research report that more industry policies and regulations are expected to follow.
In the photovoltaic industry, the core is the upstream silicon material link. The core policy of this round of PV anti-involution is the bankruptcy reorganization of backward polysilicon production capacity, and it is expected that the follow-up will start from the following aspects:
the establishment of joint platforms and debt-bearing mergers and acquisitions of production capacity. Integrators invest in the establishment of platform companies, according to the investment intensity of 600-800 million yuan/10000 tons, to carry out debt-bearing acquisition of excess capacity, and pay the down payment. The initial capital demand is about 20-25 billion yuan, which comes from industrial shareholders and financial institutions (including bank M & a loans, AIC, AMC, etc.). Debt restructuring of
the target enterprise. To restructure the debts of the target enterprises, employees, tax claims and small claims are paid off in cash, while the remaining claims are paid off in batches through extension.
Extracting funds for capacity removal and efficient management of platform companies. After the price of silicon materials rises, the incremental cash flow generated by the operation of the integrator will be withdrawn to the platform company on a monthly basis to pay the consideration and floating consideration of the target enterprise, repay the debt of the target enterprise, the principal and inter est of the debt of the platform company and the operation of the platform company.
Guotai Junan Futures pointed out
in the "Semi-annual Market Outlook of Photovoltaic Industry in 2025" that the domestic market is driven by relevant policies. In the first half of the year in China in the third quarter was about 30GW , a decrease of 49% compared with the same period last year . The ring ratio decreased by 71%.
However, considering that 2025 is the closing year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, Guotai Junan Futures believes that in the fourth quarter, there will still be a routine rush to install centralized machines at the end of the year. It is estimated that the newly installed capacity will be about 57 GW , representing a year-on-year decrease of 51% and a month-on-month increase.In the
overseas market, due to economic weakness in Europe, photovoltaic subsidies may decline, and some countries are still facing difficulties in consumption, so the growth rate of installed capacity is expected to decline ; due to trade barriers and other restrictions in the United States, the performance of installed capacity is expected to be flat. The highlight of the
overseas market is that India, the Middle East and other countries have introduced policy subsidies to support the photovoltaic industry. However, on the whole, despite the rapid growth of emerging markets, it is difficult to bring significant increments to overseas installations because of the low proportion of installed capacity in India and the Middle East.
Therefore, on the whole, it is estimated that the installed capacity of overseas non-European and American markets will increase by 167GW in 2025 .
In view of the current situation, CITIC Securities gives suggestions to enterprises from three aspects :
First, grasp the rush window: from 2026, it is necessary to meet the requirements of the proportion of non-Chinese aid before the end customers can get subsidies. Further increase of 301 tariff on energy storage in 2026 17.
The second is to maintain technology and cost leadership: in the short run, Chinese products are difficult to replace, and normal supply can be achieved through exemption clauses, technology authorization, equity ownership, mixed supply and other methods; In the long run, the advantage of capacity scale can be caught up through time and policy support, the core is to maintain the excess economy brought by technical parameters and cost leadership, in order to make up for the weakness brought by tariffs, subsidies and other issues.
Third, actively explore other markets besides the United States, such as Europe and the Middle East. The agency expects that the absolute demand for large reserves in Europe and the Middle East will exceed that in the United States in 2025-26, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%.
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