冰火两重天!水泥1546亿元的利润背后是怎样的风云诡谲?

2019-03-29 11:15:00

在行业回暖趋势下,与其他地区水泥上市公司的亮眼业绩截然相反的,是仍受困于“寒冬”的东北地区水泥企业,许多企业依旧挣扎在生死线上。深耕东北地区20余年的亚泰集团给出的预减报告显示,其2018年净利润为1000万元~9000万元,同比下降88.56%~98.68%,行业区域表现分化严重。

  2018年,供给侧结构性改革在水泥行业持续发力,密集的开工及基建补短板进一步拉动水泥需求。在此背景下,水泥价格实现高位运行,进而带动全行业利润大幅提升。数据显示,全国PO42.5水泥均价427元/吨,比2017年上涨77元/吨,同比增长22%;全行业实现利润1546亿元,达到历史最好水平。

  优良的业绩同样反映在水泥行业上市公司新鲜出炉的2018年业绩预报中。据记者统计,目前A股已发布业绩预报的16家水泥行业上市公司中,13家企业净利润同比增长,占比81.25%。其中,净利润同比增长超100%的企业10家,青松建化净利润同比增长高达613%,福建水泥净利润同比增长达312.78%~337.15%,天山股份达277.47%;而从绝对值上看,7家企业净利润逾10亿元,海螺水泥以285.39亿元~317.10亿元的预期净利润遥遥领先,是名副其实的行业巨无霸。

  然而,在行业回暖趋势下,与其他地区水泥上市公司的亮眼业绩截然相反的,是仍受困于“寒冬”的东北地区水泥企业,许多企业依旧挣扎在生死线上。深耕东北地区20余年的亚泰集团给出的预减报告显示,其2018年净利润为1000万元~9000万元,同比下降88.56%~98.68%,行业区域表现分化严重。

  华北、西南地区:

  基建拉动利润向好龙头企业持续领跑

  华北地区水泥企业受益于基础建设强力拉动,全年产量达1.7亿吨,同比增长8.5%,领先全国其他各区域。

  2018年前11个月,京津冀地区公路水路投资1107亿元,同比增长28.7%,带动水泥需求强劲增长。自2018年四季度基建补短板基调确定以来,京津冀一体化及雄安新区建设加速。受益于基建强力驱动,华北地区9月~12月的月度水泥需求增速分别为-1.86%、35.75%、36.42%、71.73%,四季度补短板保增长从微观上直接得到了印证。

  在需求的强劲拉动下,华北区域内水泥企业业绩表现良好。金隅冀东战略重组效应持续显现,受益于核心区域水泥市场秩序持续改善,以及公司水泥企业强化管理,运行质量持续提升,公司水泥和熟料量价齐升,营业收入同比增幅较大,水泥企业利润同比有所增加。金隅股份去年实现净利润盈利30.00亿元~34.00亿元,同比增长6%~20%;冀东水泥实现净利润14.50亿元~15.30亿元,同比大幅增长188.11%~204.01%。

  金隅集团相关负责人表示,随着国家供给侧结构性改革逐步深化,去年房地产企业结转面积同比增加6万平方米,结转毛利率同比有所增长,因此房地产企业利润较去年同期也有所增加。金隅冀东相关负责人表示,去年因公司合营企业金隅冀东(唐山)混凝土环保科技集团有限公司亏损,预计影响本年投资收益减少3.03亿元,同比影响投资收益减少1.55亿元。

  西南地区去年全年水泥需求同比需求增长6.4%,增速仅次于华北地区。在扶贫计划支撑下,西南地区基建及农村需求保持强劲,前11个月公路水路投资累计同比上升10.3%,西南5省份水泥需求均呈现同比增长态势。

  受需求拉动影响,区域内企业销售情况良好。四川双马业绩较去年同期实现利润大幅增长,2018年净利润盈利5.8亿元~7亿元,同比上年增长185%~244%,上年净利润为2.04亿元。四川双马相关负责人表示,在行业供需回暖之外,公司二级子公司西藏锦合创业投资管理有限公司开展的私募基金管理业务增加了管理费收入,取得了良好的业绩。

  同样来自西南地区的三圣股份给出略减报告显示,因去年同期公司并购春瑞医化产生投资收益6403.79万元(属非经常性损益),本期无此项收益造成预计净利润降低。预计2018年净利润盈利1.1亿元~1.4亿元,较去年同期1.8亿元,同比下降22.00%~38.45%。

  东北、西北地区:

  需求萎缩下滑趋势难以逆转

  在供给端,虽然去年全国水泥和熟料总产量都略有增长,但东北和西北仍有11个省份同比负增长;在需求端,两区域内水泥需求均主要靠基建工程的驱动。然而,近年来,随着大型基建项目陆续完工,两地基建投资需求逐渐降低。统计数据显示,2018年全国固定资产投资同比增长5.9%,东北地区投资仅增长1%,而东部、中部、西部地区这一数字分别是5.7%、10%和4.7%;2018年前11个月,东北地区公路水路投资分别同比下降4.0%和32.9%,区域内需求下滑趋势难以逆转。

  其中,东北三省及内蒙古自治区水泥行业情况更为严峻。区域内水泥熟料产能利用率已经连续3年持续下滑,从2017年开始,4省区的熟料产能利用率数据已跌入企业技经中的风险控制平衡点以下。加之东北地区执行错峰生产不到位情况较为严重,市场分析表示,整个行业在产品需求下降的情况下,提高产品价格也不能改变行业亏损的局面。

  在此背景下,深耕东北市场20余年的龙头企业亚泰集团发布了业绩预减报告:预计去年归属于上市公司股东的净利润盈利1000万元~9000万元,同比减少88.56%~98.68%。这是自其2016年扭亏为盈、2017年预增之后,3年来交出的第一份预减报告。值得注意的是,上一次亚泰集团的预减报告是2015年的首亏报告。

  在变动原因中,亚泰集团表示,公司的控股子公司——兰海泉洲水城(天津)发展有限公司整理的武清泉洲水城项目土地挂牌价格及面积较2017年度降低,致使兰海泉洲水城(天津)发展有限公司2018年年度业绩大幅下降。公司的参股企业——东北证券股份有限公司、吉林银行股份有限公司2018年年度经营业绩下降,致使公司按持股比例确认的投资收益大幅下降。

  在西北地区,西部建设作为全国十大预拌混凝土生产企业,也是西北地区最大的预拌混凝土生产企业,公司产品主要面对新疆地区市场,包括乌鲁木齐市、库尔勒市和奎屯市等3个区域市场,公司在3个区域市场的市场占有率均在40%以上。其发布的预增报告中显示,2018年全年净利润盈利2.64亿元~3.17亿元,同比大幅度增长150%~200%。西部建设表示,业绩提升的原因主要是受益于混凝土行业宏观经济的变化,使得公司全年实际收入高于预期。

  值得注意的是,西北区域内的青松建华和天山股份双双交出了预增报告,但在其中,非经常性损益对主营业务均构成了大幅度影响。其中,青松建化因公司的控股子公司——新疆青松投资集团有限责任公司收到全部搬迁补偿金8.28亿元,扣除搬迁支出、费用及税金后,预计取得补偿收益5.4亿元;加之区域内水泥产品售价提升,预计全年实现净利润3.61亿元,同比大幅度增加613%。

  天山股份报告期内非经常性损益1.3亿元,来自新疆天山建材(集团)房地产开发有限公司按期履行了2018年应付款项,公司将相应的补偿款项计入当期损益,预计2018年实现净利润约10亿元,同比增加277.47%。

  华东、中南地区:

  供需格局良好业绩增长超预期

  华东及中南地区,水泥需求保持稳定增长,两地区水泥需求去年分别同比增长3.1%与3.7%。

  2018年前11个月,华东地区公路水路投资及地产投资分别同比增长13.0%、13.04%,从而拉动水泥需求在环保停产依旧严格的情况下,依然实现了稳定增长,这也体现了区域内良好的供需格局。与此同时,2018年全年地产开工和投资增速超预期,赶工效应对东部水泥需求拉动明显,数据显示,去年华东6省1市产量占全国的32%。

  中南地区的需求增长主要来自两广地区支撑,其中广东省全年需求1.6亿吨,同比增长5.6%,粤东、粤西、粤北等非珠三角地区强劲的基建及农村需求,是两广需求增长良好的主要原因。市场预计,这一趋势近两年内有望持续。

  受益于供给侧结构性改革,区域内供需格局良好,华东地区上市公司业绩表现十分突出。行业“巨无霸”级别企业——海螺水泥发布年报表示,2018年实现净利润298.18亿元,同比增长111.8%,去年此数据为158.55亿元。行业龙头企业万年青表示,2018年实现净利润10.64亿元~12.50亿元,同比增长130%~170%。尖峰集团预计实现净利润5.51亿元~6.20亿元,同增58%~78%。

  区域内,福建水泥在报告期内成功实现扭亏为盈。预计2018年盈利3.23亿元~3.60亿元,同比增加312.78%~337.15%。福建水泥表示,报告期内公司水泥(含商品熟料,下同)平均售价同比上涨30.47%,水泥产品产销两旺,销量同比增加23.34%,成本、费用管控较好,商品毛利率较大提升。

  在中南地区,华新水泥2018年加大环保治理力度,环保处置、燃料替代等有效消化了部分原燃料价格上涨的因素,同时产能规模进一步扩大。报告期内,华新水泥骨料销量同比增长26%,水泥和商品熟料销量同比增长近3%,公司产品价格较上年同期均有较大幅度的上涨。预计2018年实现净利润49.72亿元~53.87亿元,同比增长139%~159%。

  在华南地区,龙头企业塔牌集团得益于水泥行业错峰生产常态化以及传统销售旺季到来,去年四季度公司水泥延续产销两旺态势,全年实现净利润15.50亿元~19.11亿元,同比增长115%~165%。海南瑞泽表示,预计实现净利润1.20亿元~1.70亿元,同比下降3.52%~31.9%。业绩的下滑主要因为公司园林绿化板块业务营业收入及利润均出现下滑,以及公司四季度特别是12月份销售回款未能达到预期,同时部分应收账款账龄结构发生变化,导致公司应收账款坏账准备计提增加。

  国家发改委日前发布的《2018年全国固定资产投资发展趋势监测报告及2019年投资形势展望》指出,在基础设施领域,2018年基础设施拟建项目数量较上年增长5.3%。但在2018年基础设施投资增速回落较大、地方政府融资渠道收缩的形势下,预计基础设施投资增长仍有压力。以基建项目落地周期1年左右判断,2019年基建投资有望保持中速增长态势。

  展望未来一年的行业需求,太平洋证券股份有限公司闫广表示:“在行业下行趋势下,南强北弱格局或将进一步深化,京津冀地区或成亮点。”他说,由于严格调控政策下房地产预计进入下行周期,2019年水泥需求总体将出现小幅下降。分地区而言,长三角、两广及京津冀地区由于受房地产下行影响相对较小以及国家战略规划下基建项目的支撑,需求将保持相对稳定,京津冀地区甚至可能因国家雄安新区建设带动出现持续反弹。其余地区需求的下行压力则相对较大,南强北弱的水泥需求格局预计在此轮下行周期中将进一步深化。

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Correlation

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

The rising price of cement makes the cost of coagulation enterprises increase and the profit is constantly compressed. Most enterprises require cash payment for cement purchases, while concrete sales are mostly on credit, and the concrete merchants caught in the middle suffer at both ends. How can concrete enterprises go through this difficult cycle? One concrete business expresses with respect to two words, hold to, cross cycle with firm belief, up to be good.

2024-10-21 15:41:58

As of September 2024, the proportion of healthy enterprises in the ready-mixed concrete industry has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 92.9% compared with 2022; the proportion of dishonest enterprises has increased from 5.0% to 6.1%; the proportion of bankruptcy reorganization enterprises has increased from 0.8% to 1.0%..

2024-09-25 09:21:01

The cement industry has been clearly included in the carbon emissions trading market in 2024. Cement enterprises need to comprehensively and accurately understand the relevant regulations and guidelines. According to the actual situation of the enterprises themselves, they should seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, turn inward, practice hard, continuously reduce their carbon emissions per ton of clinker, reduce the production cost of clinker, and win in the current industry trend. So that their enterprises can survive and develop better.

2024-09-25 09:05:05

All regions of China's cement industry will enter the new normal in which the production days are less than days of kiln shutdown. The industry should assess the market demand, reasonably determine the production time, and achieve a balance between production and marketing. It is suggested that the relevant departments of the state should implement the anti-involution measures to the production days of the traditional industries in different regions, and adjust the production days according to the real market price, that is, when the market price breaks through the price ceiling, the production days should be increased appropriately, and when the market price breaks through the price floor, the production days should be reduced appropriately, so as to achieve the relative stability of the market price.

2024-09-19 17:31:23

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

In the first half of the year, China's cement output fell by 10% year-on-year, the price of P.O42.5 bulk cement fell by 18% year-on-year, both volume and price fell, and the whole industry lost money in the first half of the year, which was rare in history. Similar to the decline in domestic cement demand, cement demand in neighboring South Korea has also fallen sharply this year, but the price performance has been unusually strong. Facing the same decline in demand and overcapacity, why are the prices of the two countries different?

2024-09-18 11:46:02

From the overall situation, in the first half of 2024, the overall operating situation of the cement industry was grim, and the profits of cement enterprises basically declined sharply, and even some enterprises suffered huge losses. In terms of the operation and management of Conch Cement, the Group will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, and continue to improve the quality and efficiency of its operation in line with the guidance of national policies. Huaxin Cement said that it demonstrated the sense of responsibility of large enterprises and actively promoted and implemented new supply-side structural reform programs and measures suitable for the high-quality development of the industry.

2024-09-03 09:43:58

Seeing the title, some people are sure to say: "This is not true. A few years ago, everyone in the cement industry ushered in six years of good times in the process of sharing happiness." Is this really the case? As a typical cyclical industry, the development of cement industry is full of ups and downs. From the past experience, when the industry encounters a low ebb, it is easier for enterprises to form a consensus and deal with challenges together; however, after the industry recovers, it is difficult to maintain this spirit of unity.

2024-08-20 16:27:06

Cement output in the first half of the year was 85047 million tons, compared with 953 million tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 103 million tons or 10.76%. Sales of China Resources Building Materials Cement fell by only 2.9%, which has outperformed the market. Not to mention the sales volume of clinker, which rose against the trend, increased by 24.7%. In the downturn of the industry as a whole, China Resources Building Materials Technology has made such a brilliant achievement, perhaps with the "grab share, keep the bottom line, optimize the structure, improve the status" set at the beginning of this year. "Related to the core market strategy.".

2024-08-19 11:12:51

This lack of demand is the general trend of the economic cycle, which is irreversible in the short term. It is determined by the economic development cycle and is a problem in the process of development and transformation. The disorderly competition among enterprises leads to the meager profits of the whole industry. Therefore, we need to take the initiative to respond, maintain strategic strength, strengthen confidence in development, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, and jointly promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry.

2024-08-16 09:09:17

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

Under the background of the decline of real estate investment and infrastructure construction investment, the domestic cement industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Data show that in the first half of this year, the national cement output dropped by 10.68% compared with the same period last year, and the whole industry suffered a loss of about 1.2 billion yuan. In such a market environment, different enterprises have adopted different market strategies, trying to find their own way to survive in the fierce competition.

2024-08-12 15:18:27

We should strengthen industry communication and enterprise dialogue, abandon the Cold War mentality, not vicious competition, not "cheap" products, not "involution" marketing, consciously resist the use of low-price dumping, loss-making sales and other improper means, jointly create a fair and stable market environment and competition order, build a good industry ecology, and reduce waste of resources and environmental pressure.

2024-08-12 11:33:12

Shaanxi Guanzhong cement prices have reached the bottom and stabilized, the price war has eased, the market adjustment, the full recovery still needs time. Ningxia enterprises plan to raise prices by taking the opportunity of off-peak kiln shutdown, and the specific effect remains to be tested. Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang markets are stable, Xinjiang prices are stable, Gansu is partially fine-tuned and overall stable, Gansu will implement peak staggering and kiln shutdown, and market trends are concerned. The price of cement in Qinghai maintains the status quo without significant fluctuation.

2024-08-09 16:37:18

This week, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei building materials market continued to be depressed due to adverse weather and environmental control demand. Cement prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region were generally stable, but some brands showed signs of decline, and the market operation showed a weak and stable trend. The central and southern areas of Hebei tried to raise the price by 30-50 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation effect was not good. At the same time, the market demand in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is weak and the market remains relatively stable due to the off-peak shutdown.

2024-08-09 16:21:01

Due to the continuous high temperature weather in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the demand of construction industry has weakened, resulting in a general decline in cement sales, and the price of cement in some areas has dropped by 20-35 yuan/ton, among which Yangzhou, Taizhou, Huaian, Nanjing, Zhenjiang and other places in Jiangsu have been greatly affected. Due to the high temperature weather in Anhui, the construction site slowed down, the demand was weak, and the cement price in Ma'anshan, Chuzhou, Hefei and other areas was reduced by 10-20 yuan/ton. Cement prices in Zaozhuang, Linyi, Jining, Tai'an and other places fell by 10-30 yuan/ton due to cloudy weather and the resumption of clinker production in Shandong.

2024-08-09 16:18:24

The vicious competition of "involution" is a game without winners.

2024-08-08 10:38:47

In this case, for cement enterprises, new clinker projects should be carefully considered!

2024-08-07 09:33:39

Actively respond to the call of the state to "strengthen industry self-discipline and prevent" involution "vicious competition", and spare no effort to maintain the industry ecology and maintain reasonable profits.

2024-08-06 13:06:52

Promote large-scale and intensive management, improve the relationship between supply and demand, and prevent involution competition.

2024-08-06 11:40:39

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

Ultra-low emission has become the legal responsibility of every cement enterprise in Zhejiang, rather than the encouragement orientation like other regions in China.

2024-07-23 14:43:18

European cement prices may exceed 250 euros/ton.

2024-07-17 16:03:36

Improve the position and look at the steady growth with the interests of the whole industry as the most important.

2024-06-26 15:44:51

According to China Cement Market Data Center, this week, the current round of kiln shutdown in Northeast China is coming to an end. Since April, leading enterprises have repeatedly pushed up prices, making cement prices in the region currently at the leading level in the country.

2024-06-14 17:27:12

Taiwan's cement industry has experienced a complete life cycle from germination, growth, prosperity to recession. Study Taiwan cement industry from the development since demand drops period, have draw lessons from a meaning very much to market of current mainland cement.

2024-05-28 11:53:23

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

How is the cement industry in Hubei? Faced with the current situation, what are the views of cement enterprises in the region?

2024-05-23 13:38:17

China Cement Network Market Data Center News, Southwest China last week, some leading enterprises in Chongqing notified the main city to raise cement prices by 30 yuan/ton, the current implementation is not up to expectations. The weekly quotation of some markets in Sichuan was slightly reduced by 10 yuan/ton, and the overall market in Yunnan-Guizhou region was relatively stable.

2024-05-17 17:25:50

In Zhou Shanjian's view, as a resource-intensive product, cement's consumption of natural resources and energy should be transformed into equivalent economic and social values to maximize the value of resource utilization.

2024-05-17 13:55:14

In the future, Huaxin Cement will continue to take green development as the core, continue to increase investment in pollution reduction, carbon reduction, energy saving and consumption reduction, promote the national "double carbon" work with practical actions, and provide Huaxin samples for traditional industrial enterprises to practice the road of green sustainable development.

2024-05-16 10:58:59

The voice of cement price is not decided by small enterprises, nor in the hands of large enterprises.

2024-05-07 13:59:52

In the first quarter of 2024, the industry as a whole showed the operational characteristics of "shrinking demand, fierce competition, high inventory and low price".

2024-05-07 09:20:19

Some manufacturers hold a pessimistic attitude, believing that the low-cost cement in Guangdong and Guangxi is already a "major threat" to the Hainan market.

2024-04-26 11:59:40

Operating revenue was approximately RMB2.051 billion, representing a decrease of 20.83% as compared with the previous year.

2024-04-26 10:07:55

The strategy of Chinese cement enterprises to lay out overseas markets has achieved remarkable results. In the future, with the sustained development of overseas business, it will effectively help Chinese cement enterprises to enhance their influence and competitiveness.

2024-04-23 15:23:09

Disorderly competition will only lead to low-price competition, widespread losses, and "no food to eat when the table is lifted".

2024-04-18 16:59:35

Recently, a number of cement listed companies have been surveyed by institutions and expressed their views and judgments on the market trend this year.

2024-04-18 11:15:12

According to the feedback from the market, since the end of the off-peak production in the heating season, the overall demand for cement in the northern region has been low, and the clinker inventory has continued to rise. In this regard, the four provinces of Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and Henan began to promote the cement industry to stop kilns in April this year.

2024-04-15 16:17:43

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

As the main body of the market, enterprises will give answers with their own practical actions.

2024-04-10 13:03:13