工程开工提速释放需求 水泥价格企稳回升

2023-03-02 09:52:58

作为基建、房地产等领域的重要原材料,水泥市场需求和价格近日企稳走高。

作为基建、房地产等领域的重要原材料,水泥市场需求和价格近日企稳走高。

“现在公司水泥出货量较去年同期增长了10%至15%,主要由于今年春节比较早,需求减少都集中在了1月份,2月份需求释放速度较快。同时,水泥库存在持续消耗中,未来需求释放情况主要受气候、需求端开工率等因素共同影响。”记者以投资者身份连线冀东水泥时,该公司负责人如是称。

从往年表现来看,春节过后,水泥市场会在3月份至5月份进入需求旺季,价格大概率会随需求释放迎来增长。2023年亦不例外,截至目前,全国超60个城市水泥出厂价格在春节过后出现了不同程度上涨。

对于水泥价格的企稳走高,东高科技首席主题研究员尹鹏飞在接受记者采访时表示,从需求方面来看,元宵节后项目工程开工速度持续加快,支撑水泥需求释放,叠加此前水泥价格处在低位,对其形成了提振。

尹鹏飞表示,开年以来,房地产市场企稳,终端消费预期出现转暖。基建方面,2023年以来各地发力扩大投资,截至2月中旬,多地发布2023年重大项目投资清单,总投资额合计达21.5万亿元。需求端的正向反馈直接支撑了水泥价格企稳。

“除需求快速释放拉动涨价外,节后水泥企业错峰生产力度明显加强,整体熟料库存压力不大。心理预期层面,国内经济逐步向好,消费持续回暖,市场预期向好。”尹鹏飞说。

未来水泥价格将呈现怎样的变化趋势?尹鹏飞表示,短期来看预计横盘震荡为主。短线需求预期和基建集中开工造成了水泥市场的供需错配,而随着错峰生产工作陆续结束,新增的水泥产能半个月就可以回补供给缺口。

数据显示,截至3月1日,A股市场17家水泥板块(按申万行业分类)上市公司已有13家发布了2022年业绩预告,其中11家预计去年归母净利润同比减少,2家预计同比增长。

多家上市公司在业绩预告中表示,去年受疫情反复及房地产开发投资增速下滑等因素影响,市场需求减少,公司水泥熟料销量和价格出现不同程度下降,导致公司经营利润同比减少。受煤炭等主要原燃材料价格上涨影响,水泥熟料成本同比上升。

国家统计局数据显示,2022年全国水泥产量21.18亿吨,同比下降10.8%。

中银证券建材行业分析师陈浩武表示,虽然2022年基建投资增速较高,但实际工作量及带动的水泥需求有所滞后,地产方面的水泥需求下滑也较为明显。2023年水泥行业有望实现量价齐升,建议保持相对乐观。同时,2022年多地明显加大错峰停窑力度,伴随行业默契度进一步提升,水泥价格有望继续回升,带动行业效益逐步企稳。此外,扩大内需正在成为稳增长战略重要支柱,基建、地产投资有望在年内接续发力,预计2023年水泥需求进一步下滑概率不大。叠加煤炭价格波动或将有限,成本企稳背景下,公司利润率回升值得期待。

关注:中国水泥网将于3月15-16日在杭州举办“2023中国水泥产业峰会”,届时全国水泥及相关行业同仁将共聚一堂,探讨未来水泥市场走势,敬请关注。

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Correlation

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

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2024-10-29 15:13:46

After the National Day, the domestic concrete market demand rebounded slightly, but the total amount is still relatively weak, concrete enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, and have not yet followed the rise of raw materials. From October 3 to October 9, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, in line with the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year decline of 10.21%.

2024-10-12 17:25:54

In September, real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure funds in place were insufficient, and some areas were greatly affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, terminal demand was still relatively low, Jinjiu market expectations failed, but at the end of the month, affected by peak staggering and production reduction, the Yangtze River Delta region sharply pushed up cement and clinker prices, and the national cement prices rose. In October, on the supply side, it is expected that the supply side will be relatively stable, the terminal demand will continue to improve, and the overall cement price in October will show a strong trend of volatility.

2024-10-11 15:31:54

Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

2024-09-20 17:55:34

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The commercial mixed market in Northwest China is running steadily.

2024-09-20 16:41:28

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

As a "veteran" of the industry, Li Wenxiu has personally experienced the ups and downs of the cement industry for decades. Faced with the current difficulties, Li Wenxiu believes that solidifying the market and share is the key to stabilizing the development trend of the industry, steadily promoting capacity removal and realizing the "soft landing" of the industry under the background of a sharp decline in demand. "The more the economic downturn, the more stable employment, stable income, capacity is inevitable, but how to go to capacity is the way we can choose, the current solidification of the market, solidification of share, to maintain the basic efficiency of the industry is very critical.".

2024-09-18 11:20:28

According to incomplete statistics, there are about 33 listed companies developing commercial mixing business in A-share motherboard, Hong Kong stock and Taiwan stock, of which 9 companies take commercial mixing as their main business.

2024-09-10 17:04:29

In September, on the supply side, the current storage level is relatively high, enterprises in many places continue to carry out self-discipline self-help activities, continue to carry out off-peak shutdown, and it is expected that the pressure on the supply side is relatively small; on the demand side, the high temperature weather gradually exits, coupled with the acceleration of the issuance of special bond funds, downstream construction activities will be strengthened, and it is expected that the terminal demand will usher in a turning point; in summary, the supply-demand relationship may improve in September. In addition, after two months of decline in cement prices in July-August, the market has a strong willingness to raise prices, and it is expected that cement prices will show a strong trend of volatility in September.

2024-09-10 13:14:43

Relevant data show that the industry lost about 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with sales falling by 11%. Conch Cement: In the first half of the year, the Company achieved an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Tapai Group: achieved operating income of RMB1.976 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB226 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of cement sales, the demand side will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the price side is expected to continue to repair.

2024-08-30 10:06:24

From a supply perspective. In 2024, the cement industry still showed a trend of "serious overcapacity". Although the expectation of environmental protection and low carbon still maintains the trend of "continuous overweight", "normalization of staggered peak production" and "carbon peak" have some constraints on the compression of cement supply in most regions, due to the overall weakening of market demand, the original production intensity of compressed cement has been difficult to reverse the current contradiction between supply and demand in a large scale, and the market. The effect of regulation and control on the supply side of superimposed peak staggering production is weakened, and the market competition is further intensified.

2024-08-28 11:34:46

The company will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation and industrial policies, optimize the strategic layout, promote the "vertical integration" expansion of the industrial chain, and build the ecological chain of the building materials industry. The company will deepen its main business, widely use digital intelligence technology and green technology, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the cement industry chain; Expand the industrial layout to promote the healthy development of the industry from the strategic height, expand the layout of the commercial concrete industry around the core areas, and further enhance the market influence and discourse power; precisely supplement the chain, combine the company's resource endowment, Industrial base, cultivate related diversified industries, and cultivate the second growth curve.

2024-08-28 11:00:03

During the reporting period, the total net sales volume of cement and clinker of the Group was 128 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.94%; the main business income was RMB34.051 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 22.12%; the operating cost The comprehensive gross profit margin of products was 22.71%, representing a decrease of 4.10 percentage points as compared with the same period of last year.

2024-08-27 20:40:13

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

The price of raw materials in many places has fallen, and the price of concrete in southwest China is running weakly.

2024-08-23 15:45:37

Domestic construction conditions have not improved significantly, coupled with the small number of new key projects, the market demand is still relatively low, and the price of concrete has fallen more or risen less. From August 8 to August 14, the national concrete price index closed at 114.48 points, down 0.33% annually and 11.69% year-on-year.

2024-08-17 10:46:53

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

2024-08-09 18:09:08

The vicious competition of "involution" is a game without winners.

2024-08-08 10:38:47

According to the data center of China Cement Market, due to the low ex-factory prices in various regions, some regions began to resume pricing this week.

2024-08-02 16:30:32

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

From the perspective of various factors, the cement industry was flat in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the steady growth policy, the physical workload of the project landing was expected to increase.

2024-07-25 10:00:09

In the past two decades, the demand change of China's cement industry has gone through three development stages: high-speed development period (2004-2012), high-level platform period (2013-2021), and downward demand period (from 2022 to now).

2024-07-23 16:45:00

Some regions in China are affected by high temperature and rain weather, coupled with insufficient new projects, the price of concrete is weakening. From July 11th to July 17th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.73 points, down 0.47% from the previous month.

2024-07-19 17:35:12

According to the research and statistics of the People's Bank of China, according to the issuance plans announced by various places, the issuance scale of new local bonds in the third quarter was as high as 1966.9 billion yuan, an increase of 605.3 billion yuan over the same period last year; plus the maturity scale of 1067.6 billion yuan of local bonds, it is expected that in the third quarter

2024-07-10 14:08:28

De-inventory has become an important task for the real estate industry at this stage, and the scale of land supply is expected to shrink further, putting pressure on domestic cement demand.

2024-06-28 09:38:56

The contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, and the price prospect of natural sand is worrying.

2024-06-26 15:22:12

Wang Jianchao believes that there are objective and subjective reasons for the current predicament of the cement industry.

2024-06-26 10:23:37

Cement Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network has recently conducted online research on some sand and gravel enterprises.

2024-06-25 16:50:21

Strict implementation of off-peak production is an important reason for the rise of local cement prices.

2024-06-18 09:51:24

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, driven by factors such as kiln shutdown and the implementation of the new national standard, the price of cement in Guangxi Province has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. The Guangdong market is tepid, and the quotation is temporarily stable. After the market of the two lakes rose, the implementation was not good.

2024-06-07 16:54:49

The serious decline in demand, coupled with the fierce market competition, the low opening and low going of cement prices, continued to bottom out, and the loss of the industry expanded. The loss of the industry in the first quarter exceeded that of 2016, and the pressure of enterprise operation was unprecedented.

2024-05-31 14:35:19

Affected by insufficient infrastructure support and the continuous downturn of real estate, the demand of cement industry continued to be weak throughout the year. In 2023, the national cement output was 2.023 billion tons, down 5% from the same period last year. Under the influence of the decline in demand, the contradiction of excess capacity was further intensified, the market competition was extremely fierce, the price of cement dropped significantly, the industry profit shrank sharply again, the annual profit dropped by more than 50%, the development of the cement industry entered an unprecedented difficult period, and many companies suffered heavy losses.

2024-05-23 14:01:48

How is the cement industry in Hubei? Faced with the current situation, what are the views of cement enterprises in the region?

2024-05-23 13:38:17

Even from the above four aspects, it is still difficult to fundamentally solve the problem of excess cement production capacity in Henan. If orderly competition and cooperation can not be achieved, the competition between "advanced production capacity and relatively advanced production capacity" will eventually change into the confrontation between "advanced production capacity and advanced production capacity".

2024-05-13 15:30:38

"In the first quarter of this year, the demand for cement was the worst season in my career for so many years, except for the year of epidemic prevention and control," said the sales director of a cement enterprise in western Henan.

2024-05-10 18:12:59

In the first quarter of 2024, the industry as a whole showed the operational characteristics of "shrinking demand, fierce competition, high inventory and low price".

2024-05-07 09:20:19

Rainwater in some regions of China is still on the high side, coupled with tight market funds, limited actual demand increment, coupled with weak cost-side support, concrete prices continue to fall. By the end of April, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) had closed at 120.21 points, down 1.77% from the end of March and 13.35% from the same period last year.

2024-05-06 18:10:56

The economic slowdown is another challenge facing the U.S. cement market in 2024.

2024-04-28 17:17:33

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

From January to March 2024, the cement output was 10,000 tons 33684, a decrease of 11.8% over the same period last year, an increase of 10.2 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-March decreased by 16.3% year-on-year.

2024-04-16 15:55:59

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

2024-04-12 16:16:19

The profit situation of the cement industry may improve in March.

2024-04-07 09:17:51

Zheng Jianhui expects cement demand to decline by at least 3% in 2024.

2024-04-03 15:12:49

The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market.

2024-04-03 14:16:17