关于水泥,您想知道的12个问题

2017-11-29 11:06:18

水泥起源于古罗马,500年前水泥和现在没有太大差距,关于水泥,下面的12个问题你都了解吗?

  水泥最早是罗马人发明的硅酸盐胶凝材料, 500年前的水泥和现在没有太大差距,有生之年,我认为水泥还是现在的水泥。。。。。水泥是传统行业,有生之年,不可能有后进者通过技术革新实现弯道超车。

  1、水泥、熟料,高标号、低标号

  100年前,水泥大体上分为高标号水泥和低标号水泥产品单一简单,同质化,因此成本低几乎是唯一竞争优势,适于大规模工业化生产,高标号就是强度高(更硬,标号42.5),低标号就是没那么硬(标号 32.5),美国的水泥,日本的水泥,中国的水泥,皆如此,且质量完全一样;

  熟料就是水泥的半成品,把天然的石灰石及粘土(碳酸钙、二氧化硅)煅烧成熟料(氧化钙),熟料加适量石膏共同磨细后,即成硅酸盐水泥(主要由CaO.SiO2 .Al2O3和Fe2O3);这也就是水泥生产的关键两部:靠近矿山的工厂大规模生产熟料,靠近市场的分散的粉磨站生产水泥;水泥和沙石、减水剂一起搅拌就成了混凝土,用混凝土就可以盖房子、铺路、修桥;

  2、水泥的需求

  我们通常说水泥需求三驾马车,房地产、基建及农村需求,全国来看基本各占1/3,农村需求一直比较稳定,地产和基建年年变,但各区域差异较大,华东、中南市场地产占比高,基建中小市政多,“三北”市场基建占比高,尤其新疆这样的市场,基本都是大基建;

 3、不可库存的商品,库容比是什么?

  水泥加水就变成石头,可是空气里含水,偏偏水泥太不值钱,一吨才两三百,也就值个露天堆放,因此水泥通常意义上认为不可库存(实际上一般生产企业有1个月左右的库容量);熟料库存时间比水泥可以略长;

  但我们每周发送的数据库上都有个百分比的“库位”,这个是什么意思?

  库位的含义是,生产企业库存占其库容量的百分比,各企业的库容量大小不一样,百分比值大概反映一个企业短期的价格压力问题,而企业一般也就1个月的库容量,因此决定了库位的判断力有效期较短,根据历史经验,库位在80%就有短期降价压力,40%就有提价可能,但这也需要根据季节(水泥的淡旺季效应明显),比如我们看2017年目前的库位,就比2016、2015年同期低了很多;

  4、水泥是区域市场差异巨大的“短腿产品”

  短腿指的是,一般水泥运输半径:陆运200公里,水运500公里,其实真实原因是:水泥货值太低,一吨才两三百元,运远了不划算,产品没有竞争力,去年治理超载,水泥的区域性更是明显;

  因此研究水泥,一定是看区域市场的,要看“地图”:有没有大江大河(运输条件,比如沿长江,比如西江连接和广西到珠三角),有没有山丘沟壑(比如川渝市场,外省的运不进来),比如江西省三面环山向北平坦却是安徽海螺老家;有没有石灰石资源(比如福建省石灰石分布在西边山里,市场在东部沿海,所以省内的水泥企业成本难以和外省走海陆输入的企业竞争)

 5、水泥的淡旺季效应,产能利用率的迷思

  一般来说水泥的淡旺季取决于气温,因为建筑施工主要在室外,太热太冷都无法施工,华东、中南地区二、四季度是旺季,其中四季度是最旺的旺季,赶工一直要到春节前;一季度春节淡季,三季度太热也是淡季(气温超过30度,就不好施工,体会一下建筑工人的艰辛。。。。。。)

  三北地区,东北、西北、华北地区,施工工期更短,11月-3月下雪,室外滴水成冰,也没法施工,也是淡季,新疆东北尤其冬天长,复工要4月份了。因此水泥的产能利用率,考虑到淡旺季,全年在85%就属于基本满产,在90%以上就非常好了(一般只有海螺能长期保持在90%以上)

  淡旺季差异显著,比如华东龙头企业,我们估算3季度淡季发货量大约是4季度最旺月的80%左右,因此,一个很重要的道理是:水泥的产能过剩与否,用全年产能和需求做比较是没有意义的,要看最旺的旺季的发挥率,比如2013年11月份我们观察到华东地区基本全开(还提价),2014-15年下行,但2016年明显上升(关了部分小的企业,所以大的更高),我们测算2016年4季度整个华东在90%左右;

  价格变化也是随着淡旺季有明显的旺季价格抬升,淡季价格下调的季节效应。

 6、水泥的价格,价格是当期供需的唯一信号

  由于水泥高度市场化、无库存、无金融属性的特点,水泥价格的上涨其实就是反应了当期供需,我认为除非供需严重失衡,否则产能过剩与否,是无法通过绝对量测算出来的,是最值得注意的就是价格信号,这几年的全国大部分市场,基本是唯一准确的信号。

  需要注意的是水泥的价格弹性问题:水泥用于房屋和基建,但在建筑成本中占比极低,平均住宅用水泥0.1~0.2吨/平米,按照水泥200-300元/吨计算,占建筑成本1%左右,因此可以认为,水泥的供需结构逆转时,需求的刚性会导致价格巨大的弹性:比如2010年-2011年

  2010Q4华东部分地区拉闸限电,供给影响只有10%,然而水泥价格却飞上了天。

 7、水泥的成本,成本构成决定了水泥随时可以关停,随时可以开启,也决定了水泥提升区域集中度——协同提价——提升利润的链条可行

  水泥的成本大头是可变成本,如下表,煤炭和电耗占大头

  这个问题引申下去,就可得出两个结论:一是水泥开关成本较低,经济人假设下水泥不可能跌破现金成本(但2015年冀东金隅在现金成本线下出货导致巨亏,是为恶性竞争),二是水泥行业可以实现集中度提升——限产协同提价——提升盈利能力(而反之固定成本占比高的行业,比如玻璃、钢铁、玻纤,集中度提升对维持价格没太大的作用)

  基于理性的“经济人”假设,即维持营业利润不变的情况下,考虑到停窑限产导致产能利用率下降带来的生产成本上升(单位产量固定成本增加),我们可以绘出停窑比例同提价幅度之间的函数关系曲线如下,可以清楚的说明这个问题:

 8、水泥企业的竞争优势,海螺何以成为“世界水泥看海螺”?

  我曾经问过水泥行业某知名企业家(能称得上“知名企业家”的不出三位),在公司管什么?回答令我震惊,只管生产线布局,细想之,非常有道理,这其实是竞争优势最核心的一环;

  我们看如下三个事实:

  作为水泥生产主要原材料的石灰石资源,我国渤海湾以南离海岸线100km的地区内没有可供大规模开采的石灰石资源;

  我国水泥需求量最大东南沿海城市带长期作为水泥输入地区;

  紧邻长三角的安徽省石灰石品质高且储量丰富,并且主要分布在长江沿线20KM内,而长江水道是我国成本最低的运输资源;

  因此,海螺水泥没有生在别的省份偏偏生在了安徽,坐拥资源、运输、成本、市场,举世无双的黄金组合,并且无可撼动;

  于是也有了海螺水泥举世闻名的“T型战略”:在长江沿岸石灰石资源丰富的地区兴建、扩建熟料生产基地(T的竖);在沿海无资源但水泥市场发达的地区低成本收购小水泥厂并改造成水泥粉磨站,就地生产水泥最终产品(T的横)。

 其他方面,就是产线规模,管理,能耗等,综合来说,海螺水泥比行业生产平均成本低15~20元/吨左右(还没算三项费用,三项费用海螺在24元/吨左右,其余企业在30-50元/吨);

  9、水泥的供给

  国家发改委曾经在2009年9月30日停止了新建水泥生产线的审批,在手批文3年有效期;当时发改委同时也限制了玻璃等行业,但是需要注意的差异是,水泥是简单的同质化产品,而玻璃的花头太多,因此水泥一刀切,确实是杀伤力显著,09年至今新批基本没有,在建线三年基本建完(有更新换代的改造),下图产能增量没有考虑淘汰落后的;

  从区域集中度看,华东、华中集中度较高,具备较好的协同提价的基础。

  图 全国各区域集中度

  10、水泥的周期属性

  水泥用于施工的全过程,我们总结了水泥的三大属性:不可库存,无金融属性,产能随时开关,这三大属性决定了水泥是早周期,周期里面水泥最早,水泥是最好的即期需求的反应,水泥价格是最好的当期供需结构的反应,投资、开工等都是水泥的同步指标(考虑到数据的频率,水泥数据可以早获得);工程机械、重卡也根本无法预测水泥,研究了这么多年,什么能领先于水泥,我觉得,流动性算是一个,还有政策等;

  11、水泥的股价表现和什么相关

  刚刚分析了水泥的周期属性,这个问题延伸下去,就是水泥的股价其实非常难以判断,周期它最早,哪来的先行指标,但真要是看股价的影响指标的话,我要说,水泥股和水泥价格相关,但水泥价格从来不是水泥股涨跌的主要因素;下面这个图可以看出来,流动性指标比水泥价格的影响在历史的更多时间中要重要一些。

  12、水泥上市公司分布

  全国:海螺水泥(600585)、中国建材(3323.HK)、

  华东:华新水泥(600801)、万年青(000789)、上峰水泥(000672);

  华南:塔牌集团(002233)、华润水泥(1313.HK);

  华北:冀东水泥(000401)(河北)、同力水泥(000885)(河南);

  西北:天山股份(000877)(新疆)、祁连山(600720)(甘肃)、宁夏建材(600449)(宁夏)、青松建化(600425)(新疆)、金圆股份(000546)(青海);

  东北:亚泰集团(600881);

  附注:财务指标

  海螺水泥(按照销量算到每吨):

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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern China rose steadily this week, pushing up 30-50 yuan/ton in Guangxi, and some low-priced enterprises reported an increase of 70 yuan/ton. This week, cement prices in eastern Hubei have gradually fallen back to the level before the last round of rise, and cement prices in many places in Hunan continue to rise.

2024-11-08 17:23:08

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Chongqing in the southwest region is pushed up by 50-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Zhaotong in Yunnan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation is to be observed; the price in Nanchong, Guang'an and Suining in Sichuan is pushed up by 50 yuan/ton, and the price in Yibin and Luzhou is partially dropped.

2024-11-08 17:19:35

The demand for concrete in North China is weak.

2024-11-08 16:18:52

The weather is fine, the demand has recovered slightly, and the price of concrete is stable.

2024-11-08 15:25:26

Comrade Liao Yi pointed out that Xingxiang Group, as the only provincial state-owned capital operation platform in Hunan Province, has always strongly supported the strengthening and refinement of highway materials in the new journey of building a first-class state-owned capital company. As the witness of this contract, he sincerely hopes that Zhongnan Cement will develop vigorously and that the cooperation with highway materials will bear fruitful results.

2024-11-08 10:08:49

The Implementation Measures will prevent this part of production capacity from participating in replacement, which will force inefficient and shutdown production capacity to withdraw from the market, thus speeding up the process of capacity removal and alleviating the increasingly intensified contradiction between supply and demand.

2024-11-08 09:41:16

With the support of special debt, the local capital situation has been improving and the downstream construction has been accelerated. In addition, the self-discipline awareness of enterprises has been strengthened, the intensity of peak staggering and production restriction has been strengthened, and the national cement prices continued to rise in October due to the favorable macro and real estate policies.

2024-11-07 15:05:51

He stressed that Southern Cement should resolutely implement the spirit of the mobilization meeting of Tianshan Materials in the fourth quarter of the decisive battle, firmly implement the "three fine management", take various measures to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and make every effort to accomplish the annual target task.

2024-11-07 09:50:11

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

Nowadays, with the rise of local enterprises, such as Ningbo Yiyu Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. and other high-tech enterprises, relying on their professional R & D and production capacity in the field of dust removal products and pneumatic components, they provide cement plants with reliable and cost-effective localization alternatives.

2024-11-05 13:54:53

Recently, at the invitation of Heidelberg Materials Group, Executive Director Tong Laigou, accompanied by Deputy General Manager and General Counsel Ma Aiguo and Deputy General Manager Wang Bin, went to Brevik of Heidelberg Materials Group. Factory survey and high-level meeting with Heidelberg Materials Group. Axel Conrads, Chief Technology Officer, Heidelberg Materials Group Warmly welcome Tong Laigou and his delegation to visit, comprehensively introduce the development plan of Heidelberg Materials Group, share its carbon emission reduction targets and CCUS planning, and point out that Sinoma Construction is an international company worthy of trust and trust, and hope that Sinoma Construction will extensively participate in the group's low-carbon development.

2024-11-05 13:07:08

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

From the recent market situation, the overall cement industry in the fourth quarter has a better expectation, the company has certain advantages in cost control and other aspects, will better benefit from the current round of price recovery and the impact of the rising boom stage.

2024-11-05 11:03:06

For companies like Conch Cement, the next step in entering the national carbon market is to reduce carbon emissions, which means that more carbon quotas can be sold in the carbon emissions trading market and get economic incentives.

2024-11-05 09:51:49

The number of off-peak days in Hebei and Shanxi in the third quarter was significantly longer than that in the same period. Although Inner Mongolia has not yet announced the specific time of kiln shutdown in the third quarter of 2023, according to the regional cement production, the time of kiln shutdown in the same period is less than that in the third quarter of 2024. On the whole, the peak staggering time in North China is prolonged.

2024-11-05 09:33:00

From 3 to 4 days, major enterprises in Guangxi have been notified to raise the price of various kinds of cement by about 30-70 yuan/ton.

2024-11-04 15:06:13

As Dong Shihong said, "Carbon is the future". At the intersection of history and future, Shijing Science and Technology, with low carbon as its pen, helps the cement industry to depict a harmonious picture of green mountains, green waters and industrial prosperity, and casts a hard backbone of sustainable development in the blending of grey and green.

2024-11-04 09:35:58

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, in the central and southern regions, this week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta and Hainan regions continue to push up the cement price by 30-60 yuan/ton, and the implementation will wait and see; Guangxi region is planning to push up the cement price by 30-50 yuan/ton. After the two lakes region experienced many times of pushing up, the price was temporarily stable this week.

2024-11-01 17:35:36

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

At the meeting, Yan Haochun brought the theme report "Dream of Blue Sky: Exploring the Green Footprint of Cement Industry in the Context of Carbon Market". She pointed out that the cement industry faced the risk of rising costs in the context of the carbon market.

2024-11-01 16:10:56

Cement prices in central and southern China are generally rising, and concrete prices may rise..

2024-11-01 15:49:36

Prices in some parts of East China have been raised this week, but the overall price has been stable.

2024-11-01 15:14:55

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Recently, the domestic temperature has dropped, local demand has dropped compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete market is mainly in a narrow range. From October 24 to October 30, the national concrete price index closed at 112.12 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.33% year-on-year.

2024-11-01 01:06:33

Compared with No.80, the Implementation Measures generally require more stringent, precise and standardized capacity replacement, which is of great significance for speeding up the removal of inefficient capacity, guiding the transformation and upgrading of the industry, and accelerating the promotion of high-quality development.

2024-10-31 17:39:56

In this journey of green transformation, the cement industry is firmly moving towards a low-carbon future, from technological innovation to management optimization, from the application of clean energy to the promotion of alternative fuels, each initiative is depicting a new journey for the industry. Let us work hand in hand to lead the wave of emission reduction with innovation, fulfill the green mission with practical actions, write a brilliant chapter of green and low-carbon development of the cement industry, and contribute to the construction of a beautiful earth.

2024-10-31 09:43:57

The Implementation Measures adhere to systematic thinking and problem orientation, encourage the advanced and eliminate the backward, implement differentiated policies for different regions and varieties, optimize the industrial layout, and enhance the green and low-carbon level.

2024-10-31 09:15:54

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Li Jian suggested that from the perspective of overall planning of ultra-low emission and pollution reduction and carbon reduction transformation, through multi-dimensional analysis, overall planning of the whole process, diagnosis of all factors, optimization of the whole process, intelligent control and digital management and control, the optimal fit point of carbon emission reduction under ultra-low emission should be explored.

2024-10-30 16:20:00

Since the end of the third quarter, the price of cement products in East China has risen, and the prosperity of building materials has recovered. With its strong competitive efficiency advantage, Shangfeng is expected to take the lead in benefiting, while its unique new economy equity investment business will further help the company maintain steady growth in performance with the upward cycle of semiconductor, new materials and other technology industries.

2024-10-29 20:15:23

Based on the market situation of the cement industry and the demand for high-quality and low-carbon development of Conch Cement, Conch will strengthen the research and development of technologies such as energy saving and carbon reduction, green environmental protection, clean energy and low-carbon cement. The main research directions of Conch's scientific and technological innovation in the future are as follows: 1. Research and development project of raw material and fuel substitution in the cement industry; 2. Research and development project of cement clinker quality improvement; 3. Energy-saving and carbon-reducing technical equipment R & D project; 4. Clean and green energy R & D and manufacturing project; 5. Future carbon technology industry exploration project.

2024-10-29 16:34:25

Looking forward to the future, we still need to continue our efforts in breaking through the existing clinker system, innovating the design of new low-carbon clinker (new clinker), breaking through the time lag and multi-scale barriers, building a digital system without "gap" in the whole process, maximizing the value of data, and supporting low-carbon in the whole process (time-sharing power consumption, coal consumption, low-carbon ratio, etc.).

2024-10-29 14:07:23

The price of cement in Yunnan region has risen sharply since the 27th.

2024-10-28 11:30:23

Since the 26th, enterprises in various regions in Jiangxi have again notified an increase in cement prices by 30 yuan/ton..

2024-10-28 09:44:51

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Pearl River Delta in central and southern Guangdong is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the Guangxi region is temporarily stable. Cement prices in Hunan and Hubei continued to rise by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-25 17:23:23

The price of concrete in North China is affected by the rise of raw materials, and there are signs of price increase.

2024-10-25 16:09:22

On October 25, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" continued brilliantly. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Material Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of China Academy of Environmental Sciences, and Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology. Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Hubei Century Xinfeng Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center, China Architecture

2024-10-25 10:53:14

By 2025, the national and provincial carbon emission annual report and express report system will be fully established, a number of industry and enterprise carbon emission accounting standards and product carbon footprint accounting standards will be issued and implemented, positive progress will be made in the construction of product carbon footprint management system, and the national greenhouse gas emission factor database will be basically completed and regularly updated. The ability of measurement, detection, monitoring and analysis of carbon emissions has been significantly improved.

2024-10-25 10:05:07