[独家]“新浙江现象”正在呈现?

2017-03-30 11:08:52

在2017第六届中国水泥网年会上,浙江省经济和信息化副巡视员丛培江在致辞中阐述了浙江水泥工业的发展情况,并得出了三条结论。其中第三条是“浙江水泥市场的今天,也许就是中国水泥的明天。”

  在2017第六届中国水泥网年会上,浙江省经济和信息化副巡视员丛培江在致辞中阐述了浙江水泥工业的发展情况,并得出了三条结论。其中第三条是“浙江水泥市场的今天,也许就是中国水泥的明天。”

  丛培江所作结论的前两条就是浙江的今天。一是产量高峰期已过,平台期也即将过去,需求量总体呈逐步下降的趋势。二是产能过剩已成为常态,无论是取消32.5水泥,还是错峰生产都无法改变这种产能过剩这种态势。去产能成为常态,市场机制起决定性作用,而环保和能耗总量控制将对去产能发挥重要作用。企业生存的法则是综合管理能力和技术先进程度以及所处的区位,而不是企业的大小。

  这不由回忆起本世纪初在水泥业出现的“浙江现象”,颇具风向标意义。由于经济快速发展,人民的生活水平大提升,致使水泥紧俏,价格飞涨,有人把水泥生产线戏称为“印钞机”,投资者蜂拥而入,新型干法生产线大发展,产量呈直线上升,原占统治地位的立窑被迅速摧垮,随之供求关系急转,价格应声直降。尽管浙江以外不少地方信誓旦旦表示,本地不具备出现浙江现象的基础,结果是市场的发展不以人的意志所转移,全国性的产能严重过剩出现。直到进入本世纪第二个十年,新疆还又最后上演了一出浙江现象翻版。

  现在,浙江水泥平台期即将过去,将呈现需求量总体逐步下降的趋势,产能过剩已成为常态,去产能也应成为常态。大家都是新型干法,彼此彼此,无法从工艺上来鉴别划分谁是落后产能,市场机制将对淘汰落后产能起决定性作用。环保和能耗总量控制,安全、质量将对去产能发挥重要作用。企业生存的法则是综合管理能力和技术先进程度以及所处的区位综合条件,而不是由企业的大小论存亡。

  现国民经济发展进入新常态,浙江水泥新动态或许可称为“新浙江现象”。 浙江曾在我国新型干法水泥发展上所起的提升作用,已经在新型干法水泥发展史上写下过浓浓的一笔。“新浙江现象”或许又是水泥发展史上新的风向标,拭目以待吧!

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Correlation

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