[原创]水泥行业可喜利润背后的需求隐忧

2014-05-30 10:31:21

进入4月份以来,水泥价格行情呈现下跌态势,出现旺季未旺。同时,1-4月份水泥产量同比仅增长4.34%,表现不如去年同期,且完全出乎此前行业内的预期。在一季度行业取得可喜利润的背后,需重点注意下游水泥需求放缓的隐忧。那么究竟当前的水泥产量增速已放缓至何状况,行业总体需求又发生了怎样的变化呢?

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  进入4月份以来,水泥价格行情呈现下跌态势,出现旺季未旺。同时,1-4月份水泥产量同比仅增长4.34%,表现不如去年同期,且完全出乎此前行业内的预期。今年春节前后局部地域雨雪天气较往年频繁以及同比基数较高对水泥产量增长产生了一定的影响。但背后更为重要的原因是全国各地区固定资产投资增速的普遍放缓,重点项目因资金问题而开工不足,致使下游水泥需求增长乏力。那么究竟当前的水泥产量增速已放缓至何状况,行业总体需求又发生了怎样的变化呢?

一、前4个月全国水泥产量低速增长,显需求疲软

  今年1-4月份全国水泥产量6.72亿吨,同比增长4.34%,增速较去年同期已下滑4.06个百分点,同比增速为2001年以来的第二低点,仅次于2005年的4.10%。从需求开始进入旺季的4月份的单月水泥产量来看,今年4月份水泥产量2.26亿吨,同比增长3.9%,增速较去年同期的8.7%有较大幅度回落,为2001年以来最低;从2004-2014年历年4月份产量的环比增速来看,4月份的10.3%亦较去年同期少4.6个百分点,仅高出2012年同期0.6个百分点。综合显示今年1-4月份全国的水泥需求略显乏力。

图1:前4个月水泥产量同比增速为2001年以来的第二低点

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  从区域情况来看,华北地区水泥产量同比依然是六大区域中唯一出现负增长的区域,前4各月水泥产量同比增速较2013年同期下滑8.58%,降幅较前两年进一步扩大;东北地区水泥产量今年同比去年同期增长13.64%,而2013年同期呈负增长;华东、中南、西南和西北地区四个区域的水泥产量同比增速较去年同期均有所下降,但华东地区增速较去年同期大幅度滑落11个百分点至1.07%,亦不及2012年同期的4.36%,中南和西南地区的增速较接近2012年的同期水平。

图2:2012-2014年前4月各区域水泥产量同比增速

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

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Correlation

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2024-08-16 09:09:17

The key reason is that even if companies want to shut down now, it is difficult to find buyers willing to take over. The essence of capital is the pursuit of profit, no enterprise is willing to "self-sacrifice" for no reason, they all hope to get better returns when they exit the market as far as possible.

2024-08-15 17:10:12

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

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