[原创]水泥行业可喜利润背后的需求隐忧

2014-05-30 10:31:21

进入4月份以来,水泥价格行情呈现下跌态势,出现旺季未旺。同时,1-4月份水泥产量同比仅增长4.34%,表现不如去年同期,且完全出乎此前行业内的预期。在一季度行业取得可喜利润的背后,需重点注意下游水泥需求放缓的隐忧。那么究竟当前的水泥产量增速已放缓至何状况,行业总体需求又发生了怎样的变化呢?

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  进入4月份以来,水泥价格行情呈现下跌态势,出现旺季未旺。同时,1-4月份水泥产量同比仅增长4.34%,表现不如去年同期,且完全出乎此前行业内的预期。今年春节前后局部地域雨雪天气较往年频繁以及同比基数较高对水泥产量增长产生了一定的影响。但背后更为重要的原因是全国各地区固定资产投资增速的普遍放缓,重点项目因资金问题而开工不足,致使下游水泥需求增长乏力。那么究竟当前的水泥产量增速已放缓至何状况,行业总体需求又发生了怎样的变化呢?

一、前4个月全国水泥产量低速增长,显需求疲软

  今年1-4月份全国水泥产量6.72亿吨,同比增长4.34%,增速较去年同期已下滑4.06个百分点,同比增速为2001年以来的第二低点,仅次于2005年的4.10%。从需求开始进入旺季的4月份的单月水泥产量来看,今年4月份水泥产量2.26亿吨,同比增长3.9%,增速较去年同期的8.7%有较大幅度回落,为2001年以来最低;从2004-2014年历年4月份产量的环比增速来看,4月份的10.3%亦较去年同期少4.6个百分点,仅高出2012年同期0.6个百分点。综合显示今年1-4月份全国的水泥需求略显乏力。

图1:前4个月水泥产量同比增速为2001年以来的第二低点

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

  从区域情况来看,华北地区水泥产量同比依然是六大区域中唯一出现负增长的区域,前4各月水泥产量同比增速较2013年同期下滑8.58%,降幅较前两年进一步扩大;东北地区水泥产量今年同比去年同期增长13.64%,而2013年同期呈负增长;华东、中南、西南和西北地区四个区域的水泥产量同比增速较去年同期均有所下降,但华东地区增速较去年同期大幅度滑落11个百分点至1.07%,亦不及2012年同期的4.36%,中南和西南地区的增速较接近2012年的同期水平。

图2:2012-2014年前4月各区域水泥产量同比增速

数据来源:国家统计局,中国水泥研究院

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Correlation

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

2024-11-08 17:27:44

Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

2024-11-06 10:05:59

In the era of shortage, the ratio of volume, cost and profit to price is effective, because we can make profits by selling more and reducing the cost, but in the era of surplus, if the volume does not go up, the price reduction may not be able to sell more, so it is better to sell more at the price, that is, to stabilize the price, guarantee the quantity and reduce the cost, even if it is reduced appropriately, we should also stabilize the price, because even if we sell 20% less, it will only affect the profit by 15%. It may affect profits by 60%. When price and sales volume can not be achieved at the same time, first of all, we should ensure a reasonable profit, find the best balance between price and sales volume, and blindly sacrifice price to increase sales volume is not feasible.

2024-11-05 10:05:30

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

2024-11-01 17:32:29

At the meeting, Yan Haochun brought the theme report "Dream of Blue Sky: Exploring the Green Footprint of Cement Industry in the Context of Carbon Market". She pointed out that the cement industry faced the risk of rising costs in the context of the carbon market.

2024-11-01 16:10:56

The incorporation of the cement industry into the national carbon market will have a significant impact on cement enterprises in terms of production and operation, data control, transaction costs, energy saving and carbon reduction investment. With the carbon quota from basic satisfaction to tight reduction, it will effectively promote production reduction, thereby affecting competitiveness and supply and demand pattern.

2024-11-01 09:52:46

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Since the end of the third quarter, the price of cement products in East China has risen, and the prosperity of building materials has recovered. With its strong competitive efficiency advantage, Shangfeng is expected to take the lead in benefiting, while its unique new economy equity investment business will further help the company maintain steady growth in performance with the upward cycle of semiconductor, new materials and other technology industries.

2024-10-29 20:15:23

Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

Tapai said that from January to September 2024, due to the continuous decline in cement demand and intensified competition, the company's cement sales price fell by 18.27% year-on-year, and the cost of cement sales fell by 11.96% year-on-year due to the decline in the purchase price of raw materials such as coal and labor costs. As a result, the profitability of the main cement industry declined year-on-year. Affected by the rising stock index at the end of the quarter, the fair value change income of the securities investment held by the company increased, which increased the performance and slowed down the decline of the company's performance.

2024-10-25 10:56:53

On October 25, the "2024 China Cement Double Carbon Conference and the 12th Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Technology Exchange Conference" continued brilliantly. Gao Dengbang, President of China Cement Association, Zhu Shengli, General Manager of Anhui Conch Group Co., Ltd., Lv Zhijian, President of Xinjiang Building Material Industry Association, Ma Weiping, Chairman of OCC, Jiang Dehong, Vice President and Chief Engineer of Tianshan Material Co., Ltd., Li Jian, Associate Researcher of China Academy of Environmental Sciences, and Fan Yueming, Professor of South China University of Technology. Zhuge Wenda, Chairman of Hubei Century Xinfeng Leishan Cement Co., Ltd., Yan Haochun, Technical Director of China National Inspection and Testing Holding Group and General Manager of Certification and Evaluation Center, China Architecture

2024-10-25 10:53:14

The rising price of cement makes the cost of coagulation enterprises increase and the profit is constantly compressed. Most enterprises require cash payment for cement purchases, while concrete sales are mostly on credit, and the concrete merchants caught in the middle suffer at both ends. How can concrete enterprises go through this difficult cycle? One concrete business expresses with respect to two words, hold to, cross cycle with firm belief, up to be good.

2024-10-21 15:41:58

Recently, Jinghe Integration announced its performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2024, which is expected to achieve business income of 6.7 billion yuan to 6.8 billion yuan, an increase of 33.55% to 35.54% over the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company is expected to be 270 million yuan to 300 million yuan, a substantial increase of 240 million yuan to 270 million yuan, an increase of 744.01% to 837.79%.

2024-10-18 10:53:49

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in Lanzhou-Baiyin area of Gansu Province has risen by 10 yuan/ton; the prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Shaanxi are stable. Affected by the big drop in temperature, rain and snow before the festival, the market demand in Qinghai has declined significantly. As the weather cleared up, cement sales in the region rebounded, and the market showed signs of warming up.

2024-10-12 17:29:56

Heidelberg Materials entered the Indian market in 2006 through a number of acquisitions. It currently operates four cement plants in India with a capacity of 12.5 million tonnes. Indian cement plants accounted for 7% of the total capacity of the building materials company last year, which also produces sand, gravel and additives such as concrete. In the cement industry, Heidelberg Materials ranks fourth in the world, behind two Chinese manufacturers (Conch Cement and CNBM) and the Holcim Group of Switzerland.

2024-10-11 09:12:31

As of September 2024, the proportion of healthy enterprises in the ready-mixed concrete industry has decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 92.9% compared with 2022; the proportion of dishonest enterprises has increased from 5.0% to 6.1%; the proportion of bankruptcy reorganization enterprises has increased from 0.8% to 1.0%..

2024-09-25 09:21:01

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

Faced with the adverse effects of the deep adjustment of real estate and the slowdown of infrastructure investment, the company will adhere to the principle of "market, resources and returns" and enhance market control to promote high-quality M & a projects in areas with low industry concentration and blank markets.

2024-09-13 15:27:16

From the overall situation, in the first half of 2024, the overall operating situation of the cement industry was grim, and the profits of cement enterprises basically declined sharply, and even some enterprises suffered huge losses. In terms of the operation and management of Conch Cement, the Group will pay close attention to the macroeconomic situation at home and abroad, and continue to improve the quality and efficiency of its operation in line with the guidance of national policies. Huaxin Cement said that it demonstrated the sense of responsibility of large enterprises and actively promoted and implemented new supply-side structural reform programs and measures suitable for the high-quality development of the industry.

2024-09-03 09:43:58

In the first half of 2024, Conch Cement realized an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit attributable to parent company of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%.

2024-08-30 14:56:13

Relevant data show that the industry lost about 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with sales falling by 11%. Conch Cement: In the first half of the year, the Company achieved an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Tapai Group: achieved operating income of RMB1.976 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB226 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of cement sales, the demand side will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the price side is expected to continue to repair.

2024-08-30 10:06:24

From a supply perspective. In 2024, the cement industry still showed a trend of "serious overcapacity". Although the expectation of environmental protection and low carbon still maintains the trend of "continuous overweight", "normalization of staggered peak production" and "carbon peak" have some constraints on the compression of cement supply in most regions, due to the overall weakening of market demand, the original production intensity of compressed cement has been difficult to reverse the current contradiction between supply and demand in a large scale, and the market. The effect of regulation and control on the supply side of superimposed peak staggering production is weakened, and the market competition is further intensified.

2024-08-28 11:34:46

During the reporting period, real estate investment continued to decline and infrastructure investment slowed down, which directly affected the demand for cement, and this trend became more obvious after the Spring Festival, resulting in a continuous decline in the demand for cement. During the reporting period, the company's cement sales decreased by 577900 tons, and the average price of cement decreased by 45.03 yuan, or 17.26%. During the reporting period, the company suspended the production of high-cost Strait Cement and reduced the marketing scale of Jinyinhu Cement, which had a positive impact on the year-on-year loss reduction.

2024-08-26 10:40:10

Seeing the title, some people are sure to say: "This is not true. A few years ago, everyone in the cement industry ushered in six years of good times in the process of sharing happiness." Is this really the case? As a typical cyclical industry, the development of cement industry is full of ups and downs. From the past experience, when the industry encounters a low ebb, it is easier for enterprises to form a consensus and deal with challenges together; however, after the industry recovers, it is difficult to maintain this spirit of unity.

2024-08-20 16:27:06

Due to the rainy weather in Zhejiang, the market demand is general, and the shipment volume is about 6-7%. In order to promote sales, some manufacturers reduce the price of cement, and try to push up the price to enhance market confidence, but the actual implementation remains to be observed. The overall market demand in Jiangsu has not improved significantly, with shipments hovering at 4-6% of normal production capacity. Manufacturers in southern Jiangsu have reduced prices for promotion, while the markets in northern and central Jiangsu are expected to face a downward trend.

2024-08-16 16:37:36

On August 10, Ningxia Building Materials announced that it would terminate the exchange of shares to absorb and merge China Construction Information and issue shares to no more than 35 specific investors, including China Building Materials, to raise matching funds. At the end of January this year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an audit decision on terminating the absorption and merger of building materials in Ningxia and the sale of major assets and raising matching funds. However, Ningxia Building Materials failed to fully explain the basis for the absence of significant uncertainty in the collection of accounts receivable of China Construction Information and the related favorable impact of the transaction on the company.

2024-08-16 10:15:40

This lack of demand is the general trend of the economic cycle, which is irreversible in the short term. It is determined by the economic development cycle and is a problem in the process of development and transformation. The disorderly competition among enterprises leads to the meager profits of the whole industry. Therefore, we need to take the initiative to respond, maintain strategic strength, strengthen confidence in development, advocate the concept of fair competition and win-win cooperation, and jointly promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry.

2024-08-16 09:09:17

The key reason is that even if companies want to shut down now, it is difficult to find buyers willing to take over. The essence of capital is the pursuit of profit, no enterprise is willing to "self-sacrifice" for no reason, they all hope to get better returns when they exit the market as far as possible.

2024-08-15 17:10:12

We need to establish the core values of "others earn more, I can earn more" to guide production and operation. In the short run, only by actively limiting production and restoring the balance of supply and demand in the weak market, can the cement industry achieve a recovery in efficiency. Without enough initiative and consistency to limit production, all those who talk about the price of cement are cheaters and hooligans, and they can not succeed.

2024-08-13 15:12:11

Under the background of the decline of real estate investment and infrastructure construction investment, the domestic cement industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Data show that in the first half of this year, the national cement output dropped by 10.68% compared with the same period last year, and the whole industry suffered a loss of about 1.2 billion yuan. In such a market environment, different enterprises have adopted different market strategies, trying to find their own way to survive in the fierce competition.

2024-08-12 15:18:27

Shaanxi Guanzhong cement prices have reached the bottom and stabilized, the price war has eased, the market adjustment, the full recovery still needs time. Ningxia enterprises plan to raise prices by taking the opportunity of off-peak kiln shutdown, and the specific effect remains to be tested. Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang markets are stable, Xinjiang prices are stable, Gansu is partially fine-tuned and overall stable, Gansu will implement peak staggering and kiln shutdown, and market trends are concerned. The price of cement in Qinghai maintains the status quo without significant fluctuation.

2024-08-09 16:37:18

This week, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei building materials market continued to be depressed due to adverse weather and environmental control demand. Cement prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region were generally stable, but some brands showed signs of decline, and the market operation showed a weak and stable trend. The central and southern areas of Hebei tried to raise the price by 30-50 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation effect was not good. At the same time, the market demand in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is weak and the market remains relatively stable due to the off-peak shutdown.

2024-08-09 16:21:01

Due to the continuous high temperature weather in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the demand of construction industry has weakened, resulting in a general decline in cement sales, and the price of cement in some areas has dropped by 20-35 yuan/ton, among which Yangzhou, Taizhou, Huaian, Nanjing, Zhenjiang and other places in Jiangsu have been greatly affected. Due to the high temperature weather in Anhui, the construction site slowed down, the demand was weak, and the cement price in Ma'anshan, Chuzhou, Hefei and other areas was reduced by 10-20 yuan/ton. Cement prices in Zaozhuang, Linyi, Jining, Tai'an and other places fell by 10-30 yuan/ton due to cloudy weather and the resumption of clinker production in Shandong.

2024-08-09 16:18:24

The vicious competition of "involution" is a game without winners.

2024-08-08 10:38:47

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.